Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

England 17-20 v Costa Rica Tuesday.

They were 1-2 and don't really see why the big drift especially as Costa Rica
may well rest a few of their players.

Does anyone see it as a trading position to lay back at shorter ?

Surely roy uses the game as a friendly to give the reserves and kids a chance to play in SA conditions against SA style of play for the future.  Would be amazed if england actually take the game seriously.  What is to gain from playing gerrard, rooney, hart etc for this game?

[arbboy]

I've a question for Arbboy and Co.

It seems to me in a big meeting like Ascot there are lots of situations where you can back horses early and lay them in the last 30 mins before they run.

For example, its been clear that horses drawn high in the sprints this week have had an advantage.

I've not analysed the exact numbers but from what I've seen those fancied horses drawn high have almost all dropped in price significantly in the last 30 mins before the race. There have been big drops in their prices.

I presume this has been an attractive opportunity to back them and lay them later? I am missing something??

no idea on this tbh.  Draw bias is more for chompy.

[Peter-27]

May be worth a small bet (max £5) on Hulkenberg to finish on the podium this weekend. The team are sacrificing qualifying for race pace, but Hulkenberg still managed 11th in 3rd practice - and that's with a lap that could have been better too. If he can make the top ten in qualifying then he has a great shot at the podium. He will most likely do one stop less than everybody else (as we have seen in recent races) and Force India's race pace is great too.

Can get 14/1 with Betfred.

[Doobs]

Hamelin 3.05 has to be cast iron each way bet doesn't it?

Aljamaheer 4.25 too, ground too fast for Slade Power?

dick whittington and tiger cliff william hill offer horses?

I like Hamelin.  Tiger Cliff seems plenty short enough, would prefer Arab Spring.  I can see others disagree, but it doesn't look massively too short to me.  It was one that stuck in the memory for me.  Sure Dick Whittington is fine, though I wouldn't be in a rush without the offer

[bookiebasher]

England 17-20 v Costa Rica Tuesday.

They were 1-2 and don't really see why the big drift especially as Costa Rica
may well rest a few of their players.

Does anyone see it as a trading position to lay back at shorter ?

Surely roy uses the game as a friendly to give the reserves and kids a chance to play in SA conditions against SA style of play for the future.  Would be amazed if england actually take the game seriously.  What is to gain from playing gerrard, rooney, hart etc for this game?

Just think they don't want to come home with zilch points and no pride.

Also don't think it would be damaging to England's chances if he did freshen the side up plus one
or two of the Costa Ricans might not put a full shift in.

Going from 4-9/1-2 to 5-6/10-11 seems a big shift to me.

[arbboy]

England 17-20 v Costa Rica Tuesday.

They were 1-2 and don't really see why the big drift especially as Costa Rica
may well rest a few of their players.

Does anyone see it as a trading position to lay back at shorter ?

Surely roy uses the game as a friendly to give the reserves and kids a chance to play in SA conditions against SA style of play for the future.  Would be amazed if england actually take the game seriously.  What is to gain from playing gerrard, rooney, hart etc for this game?

Just think they don't want to come home with zilch points and no pride.

Also don't think it would be damaging to England's chances if he did freshen the side up plus one
or two of the Costa Ricans might not put a full shift in.

Going from 4-9/1-2 to 5-6/10-11 seems a big shift to me.

It is a big shift but there have been a lot of other big shifts in the last week with england on 0 points and costa rica on 6.  Hard to argue that CR didn't deserve both their wins so given the literal form and england going off at evens v urug its pretty hard to make a case for an even less motivated england at a shorter price for this game.  That's my view but i am a serial england layer so i hope your theory is correct and they go off 4/6!

[TightEnd]

Hamelin 3.05 has to be cast iron each way bet doesn't it?

Aljamaheer 4.25 too, ground too fast for Slade Power?

dick whittington and tiger cliff william hill offer horses?

I like Hamelin.  Tiger Cliff seems plenty short enough, would prefer Arab Spring.  I can see others disagree, but it doesn't look massively too short to me.  It was one that stuck in the memory for me.  Sure Dick Whittington is fine, though I wouldn't be in a rush without the offer

I got 6/1 Hamelin earlier, knew where it would end up getting recommended, has the perfect profile for the analysis there.

£30 e/w Hamelin 6/1 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4 victor


i will leave the rest, views seem lukewarm



Rick, high draw horses have definitely shortenend all week in the 30 mins before the off. anything drawn 28-32 in the big handicaps on ther straight course especially

maybe this is because punters at course have been doing well, plenty of cash to smash into them

[TightEnd]

May be worth a small bet (max £5) on Hulkenberg to finish on the podium this weekend. The team are sacrificing qualifying for race pace, but Hulkenberg still managed 11th in 3rd practice - and that's with a lap that could have been better too. If he can make the top ten in qualifying then he has a great shot at the podium. He will most likely do one stop less than everybody else (as we have seen in recent races) and Force India's race pace is great too.

Can get 14/1 with Betfred.

£5 14/1 betfred Hulkenberg to podifyumviate

[RickBFA]

Hamelin 3.05 has to be cast iron each way bet doesn't it?

Aljamaheer 4.25 too, ground too fast for Slade Power?

dick whittington and tiger cliff william hill offer horses?

I like Hamelin.  Tiger Cliff seems plenty short enough, would prefer Arab Spring.  I can see others disagree, but it doesn't look massively too short to me.  It was one that stuck in the memory for me.  Sure Dick Whittington is fine, though I wouldn't be in a rush without the offer

I got 6/1 Hamelin earlier, knew where it would end up getting recommended, has the perfect profile for the analysis there.

£30 e/w Hamelin 6/1 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4 victor


i will leave the rest, views seem lukewarm



Rick, high draw horses have definitely shortenend all week in the 30 mins before the off. anything drawn 28-32 in the big handicaps on ther straight course especially

maybe this is because punters at course have been doing well, plenty of cash to smash into them

Yes Tighty, they have. I'm not saying its for this thread but I would have thought it was an obvious chance to back then lay them. Its not been uncommon to see them drop from say, 11/1 down to 7/1.

[Doobs]

Was just looking for another free bet after tippining up a "right dodgepot" earlier.  

Astaire was a very good 2 year old.  Sprints are bad for 3 year olds at the start of the year and it ran badly first time out.  Last time it ran much better.

Today it is 10/1 which looks very good to my eyes.  Even better, Coral "raising the bar" are offering 4 places.

This looks exceptional to me, suggest £40 each way if you can use the site (just hung 3 times for me).

Can we get it?

[bookiebasher]

England 17-20 v Costa Rica Tuesday.

They were 1-2 and don't really see why the big drift especially as Costa Rica
may well rest a few of their players.

Does anyone see it as a trading position to lay back at shorter ?

Surely roy uses the game as a friendly to give the reserves and kids a chance to play in SA conditions against SA style of play for the future.  Would be amazed if england actually take the game seriously.  What is to gain from playing gerrard, rooney, hart etc for this game?

Just think they don't want to come home with zilch points and no pride.

Also don't think it would be damaging to England's chances if he did freshen the side up plus one
or two of the Costa Ricans might not put a full shift in.

Going from 4-9/1-2 to 5-6/10-11 seems a big shift to me.

It is a big shift but there have been a lot of other big shifts in the last week with england on 0 points and costa rica on 6.  Hard to argue that CR didn't deserve both their wins so given the literal form and england going off at evens v urug its pretty hard to make a case for an even less motivated england at a shorter price for this game.  That's my view but i am a serial england layer so i hope your theory is correct and they go off 4/6!

In both England's matches they had more possession and more shots than the opposition and it's a very fine line
between success and failure.

I have laid them all tournament and backed them at 12-1 to finish bottom but at around evens I will be looking at a
cover bet with England to win and hopefully a draw in the other group match to scoop the lot

[TightEnd]

Was just looking for another free bet after tippining up a "right dodgepot" earlier. 

Astaire was a very good 2 year old.  Sprints are bad for 3 year olds at the start of the year and it ran badly first time out.  Last time it ran much better.

Today it is 10/1 which looks very good to my eyes.  Even better, Coral "raising the bar" are offering 4 places.

This looks exceptional to me, suggest £40 each way if you can use the site (just hung 3 times for me).

Can we get it?

got chucked off three times "error, contacting account holder"

tried again, sent for review, time for me to make a cup of tea, come back, still reviewing

and then

Astaire10/14:25 Royal Ascot - 21/06/2014
Each Way £40 1/4 1,2,3,4
Stake £80.00
Estimated Return:£580.00

coral lay a bet. lets punish them for their temerity.

[jakally]

Referees have been noticeably reluctant to get the cards out so far in the WC.
Average yellow cards per game is 2.73 and red 0.19 (vs 4.15/0.26 in 1st/2nd rnd group games 2002/10).

Result of this is that there is much more chance of bookings supremacy ending in a tie - 10 out of 26 matches tied so far, against 22 from 96 2002/10.
BetEveryDay seem to have adjusted as a result but not everyone has.

Suggest the following bets next couple of days :

Germany/Ghana Tied Booking Points £20@15/4 Lads
Nigeria/Bosnia    Tied Booking Points £20@18/5 Lads (4/1 available Sky for those that can get on)
Belgium/Russia   Tied Booking Points £20 @ 17/5 WH (7/2 Sky)
S Korea/Algeria  Tied Booking Points £20 @ 18/5 WH (4/1 Sky)
USA/Portugal     Tied Booking Points £20 @ 18/5 WH

Have left Argentina/Iran as a one-sided match should mean less chance of a tie.

Only done this market this week, so happy for someone to pick it apart.

[TightEnd]

can you explain how the booking points market works please?

10 for a yellow, 25 for a red...or just yellow cards?

(will get on after qualifying unless dissenting voices)

[jakally]

can you explain how the booking points market works please?

10 for a yellow, 25 for a red...or just yellow cards?

(will get on after qualifying unless dissenting voices)

Yes, 10 Yellow, 25 Red.