Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

We have £200 at 23/10 3.3 italy/uruguay draw

which i need to close pre kick-off

unfortunately it is 3.7 the draw, the outsider of the three way result market


what is the best way to proceed here from a "get out" point of view?

This makes no sense to me?  Why is the draw on the drift?

over 2.5 backed from 2.25 to 2.0 which is partly due to italy gamble but it's the major reason why the draw has drifted so much as 0-0 and 1-1 are obv 2 of the outcomes for under 2.5 goals and when the overs are heavily backed the draw in this spot has to drift quite substantially more so than just because italy have been backed in what is still a relatively tight betting heat.  I just don't get the gamble on Italy at all.  What incentive do they have to actually win the game?  Finishing 1st or 2nd in group isn't going to make much difference to the 2nd round opponent and is it worth the risk trying to win the game with hardly any upside if you do which would presumably increase the chance of losing it if they go at it all guns blazing?  

I would have thought if any team would have been backed here it would have been Urug because of the must win spot.

[TightEnd]

If you want to close the position out Tighty il have £200@ whatever price draw is to lay- save commission and Fred would be 0 both teams and -x on draw

think we should do as you advised, if the price is wrong to lay it lets run it.

whatever i decide could be wrong, and i'll second guess it for days after, so lets stick to the fundamentals

[Dubai]

Ha poor tikay

[Chompy]

If you want to close the position out Tighty il have £200@ whatever price draw is to lay- save commission and Fred would be 0 both teams and -x on draw

think we should do as you advised, if the price is wrong to lay it lets run it.

whatever i decide could be wrong, and i'll second guess it for days after, so lets stick to the fundamentals

£200 is a big chunk to let run on here.

Suggest you stick up £150 @ 3 and keep it there IR. If it stays goalless for 15mins (maybe 20-25 for those that know these things?) it'll get matched.

Obv if there's an early goal, take it off and cross your fingers.

[Dubai]

Seems a reasonable plan, for Tikays sanity anyway

[arbboy]

If you want to close the position out Tighty il have £200@ whatever price draw is to lay- save commission and Fred would be 0 both teams and -x on draw

think we should do as you advised, if the price is wrong to lay it lets run it.

whatever i decide could be wrong, and i'll second guess it for days after, so lets stick to the fundamentals

£200 is a big chunk to let run on here.

Suggest you stick up £150 @ 3 and keep it there IR. If it stays goalless for 15mins (maybe 20-25 for those that know these things?) it'll get matched.

Obv if there's an early goal, take it off and cross your fingers.

We are losing about a pony letting it run in ev.  It's hardly a big bet to 'give it away' laying 3.7 the draw now for £150 of the draw.  Obv it's either -£200 or + £460 but the reality is long term we have ironed out a pony. 

[samj19]

Ignore this for now

[horseplayer]

racebets are fine arb in my experience

Not 100% sure of background but no issues that i am aware of

[arbboy]

ok cheers.  Been meaning to open an account with them for a while.  This seems the perfect opportunity.  They do sign up bonuses/free bets?

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/luis-suarez/club-after-summer-transfer-window

[Chompy]

Did we dump the Italy draw back at 3.0?

[TightEnd]

Did we dump the Italy draw back at 3.0?

done £150 at 3 after 33 mins

position +£160 draw -£50 no draw, before comm

[arbboy]

boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[simonnatur]

I have my eye on the 7.50 Ballinrobe. 16 runner handicap 7-1 bar the 6/4 fav , I'm looking to back Diamondgeezer Luke, Thoonavolla and maybe a tiny bet on Come On You, all e/w if there are no non-runners nearer the off. I'm assuming this is best done in shops if you value your accounts.

Any comments or preferred picks from the horse judges out there?

[arbboy]

the fav will be a good bet ew as well if the 16 runners hold if it drifts back to 7/4 2/1 just on the maths alone and the win price is close to the firms price on the win market obv.