Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Copied from racing thread

£20 win the suggestion

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/newbury/20:10/winner

Backed DJINNI twice this season already....

This is last chance for me today. Step up to a mile perfect, good to firm perfect Cam Hardie seven pounds off excellent showed a smidgen more last time.

Only a small bet as the front two in the market are unexposed types but 16/1  has tempted me in again.

Dr Red Eye runs again at Epsom but this looks much tougher to get a softish lead so i can let him win.

[tikay]

Copied from racing thread

£20 win the suggestion

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/newbury/20:10/winner

Backed DJINNI twice this season already....

This is last chance for me today. Step up to a mile perfect, good to firm perfect Cam Hardie seven pounds off excellent showed a smidgen more last time.

Only a small bet as the front two in the market are unexposed types but 16/1  has tempted me in again.

Dr Red Eye runs again at Epsom but this looks much tougher to get a softish lead so i can let him win.

Thanks John.

After 17 attempts, I managed to get the Coral website to accept £20 @ 16/1.

BET PLACED

[samurai]

With regard to the SPOTY is Ian Poulter at 100/1 not a reasonable proposition.

Firstly in stark contrast to his rivals he actually has a personality!

Secondly we have 2 maybe 3 chances of getting into contention, the Open, USPGA or an outstanding Ryder Cup performance (he is likely to be the focal point of the media coverage)

Unlikely maybe but at 100/1 I'd sooner back him in such a weaka year than his rivals!

[Bad Beat]

 I like it Horsey. I've also suffered with this wretched beast backing it the last two times. I felt like the jockey gave her an awful ride last time and I was really quite cross (Sean Levey). I have already backed Alzanti in this one and I still would be happy with 4/1 there but I was pondering a saver on Djinni. You've persuaded me...it's not a saver now it's a proper bet. 16/1 looks amazing, I thought 10/1 was fair.

[bobby1]

What price do we want Wilkinson?  I can't believe after all this time the thread has been going, that the price still isn't mentioned anywhere.

The each way frims are 12/1 best with a fifth first 3. So we are backing a long term odds on chance if we think the best he can do is place.

It is virtually an arb on Betfair, but that would take a lot of money for a long time so that isn't really an option anyway, just saying it is there.

To me this looks like someone has had a good idea at a big price a month or so ago, and it has filtered down to here too late.

The ask price is slightly under 12/1 in the win market but the bet price well under and the place price on BF is under 2/1. How is this not a clear bet using your maths approach?

The 12/5 to make the top 3 is huge value using your usual criteria and we all know that if this was a golfer, snooker player, horse that you fancied/ wanted to bet coz it beats the Betfair price you would be using those numbers to tell everyone what a good bet it is. As you don't seem to fancy this you are trying to make out it is a bad bet by ignoring the maths.

If the guys think he has a decent chance to place then you know full well that the best way to go would be to bet ew at 12/1, lay the win part back at under that and keep the place bet at 12/5 when that part of the bet is under 2/1 on BF. Or does the math only count when you are putting your bets up and other peoples down?

Using up funds on that from an imaginary bank is no different from having a load of ante post football bets on any of the upcoming league seasons.

[horseplayer]

I like it Horsey. I've also suffered with this wretched beast backing it the last two times. I felt like the jockey gave her an awful ride last time and I was really quite cross (Sean Levey). I have already backed Alzanti in this one and I still would be happy with 4/1 there but I was pondering a saver on Djinni. You've persuaded me...it's not a saver now it's a proper bet. 16/1 looks amazing, I thought 10/1 was fair.

Thats good to hear.

I am slightly concerned that i have given her excuses the last 4 runs now not something i like to do. It is however fair to say these are her ideal conditions tonight (or should be)

gd lk

[Marky147]

Can anyone get me a score on horsey's nag, please?

I'm plotted up at Claude's bar, so can't get into my Coral account...

10% commission if anyone can do, and you're nailed on if not

[bobby1]

Golfers just have a terrible record in Spoty, Gmac and Rose didn't get anywhere near enough votes after winning US Opens and Poulter was in full rant mode complaining that the award is now a 'sports personality of their career award' the year G Mac was in the list.

Darren Clarke didn't win after his performance in the Ryder cup so soon after his wife's death or after winning The Open so It would seemingly need a double major win and heroic Ryder Cup to get a golfer to win imo. Think you would be better off just backing the Golfers you fancy for Spoty to win The Open instead as can't see how they would even make the list without winning that.

[arbboy]

Golfers just have a terrible record in Spoty, Gmac and Rose didn't get anywhere near enough votes after winning US Opens and Poulter was in full rant mode complaining that the award is now a 'sports personality of their career award' the year G Mac was in the list.

Darren Clarke didn't win after his performance in the Ryder cup so soon after his wife's death or after winning The Open so It would seemingly need a double major win and heroic Ryder Cup to get a golfer to win imo. Think you would be better off just backing the Golfers you fancy for Spoty to win The Open instead as can't see how they would even make the list without winning that.

Very fair point well made imo.  They split the golf vote too much because there are so many of them.

[tikay]

Can anyone get me a score on horsey's nag, please?

I'm plotted up at Claude's bar, so can't get into my Coral account...

10% commission if anyone can do, and you're nailed on if not

Mark,

I managed to get another £10 with Corals @ 16/1, so I have £30 in total now.

You can have 50% of that (£15), though I don't want any commission.

This is a private transaction between you & me, & does not affect Fred's position, Fred still has £20 win.

[Bazzaboy]

The obvious winner to me is froch although I am biased after backing him at 100/1 already. What other uk performance this year comes close to his?  Assuming we discount wwe type sports (IMO of course) which are team driven and people win to team orders ie cycling/f1

I tend to agree. Plus he is likely to have another high profile fight before the end of the year which won't do any harm (if he wins). I don't think Froch comes across as a particularly likeable individual but this won't take a lot of winning.

[arbboy]

The obvious winner to me is froch although I am biased after backing him at 100/1 already. What other uk performance this year comes close to his?  Assuming we discount wwe type sports (IMO of course) which are team driven and people win to team orders ie cycling/f1

I tend to agree. Plus he is likely to have another high profile fight before the end of the year which won't do any harm (if he wins). I don't think Froch comes across as a particularly likeable individual but this won't take a lot of winning.

Given he hasn't been mentioned at all apart from me i am assuming most people think he is a lay at 10/1 ish?  I am happy to flip my position and lay the lot back the other way if decent judges think he is a solid lay at 10/1.

[Tal]

The obvious winner to me is froch although I am biased after backing him at 100/1 already. What other uk performance this year comes close to his?  Assuming we discount wwe type sports (IMO of course) which are team driven and people win to team orders ie cycling/f1

I tend to agree. Plus he is likely to have another high profile fight before the end of the year which won't do any harm (if he wins). I don't think Froch comes across as a particularly likeable individual but this won't take a lot of winning.

Won a dodgy fight. Behaved like a child. Won a better fight. Not the best fighter in his division. [Insert list of british super middleweights in the recent past who were much better candidates for this award here]

Ricky Hatton might well have won it his year if he hadn't been flattened the night before the award.

Genuinely, if he fought and beat Andre Ward in Vegas before December, that would be huge. Ward probably doesn't want to fight him and doesn't have to.

Monster prices obviously, so who am I to put people off a little bet?

[claypole]

Baldfred price boost Rodriguez to 4/1 - £100 max. Obviously very dependant on next game but it's a lay at 4.7 machine so just lock up the £30 freeroll if that way inclined.

[arbboy]

Baldfred price boost Rodriguez to 4/1 - £100 max. Obviously very dependant on next game but it's a lay at 4.7 machine so just lock up the £30 freeroll if that way inclined.

4.4 to lay on machine not 4.7 for decent cash.  Great spot cheers.  Bald obviously got him as a skinner in their book and happy to 'give it away' as a price boost.