Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Baldfred price boost Rodriguez to 4/1 - £100 max. Obviously very dependant on next game but it's a lay at 4.7 machine so just lock up the £30 freeroll if that way inclined.

Thanks Mr C.

I assume that is for "Top WC Goalscorer"? Pardon my ignorance, but I've been away over a month, the WC was not exactly on my radar in Vegas, & so I'm not up to speed.

BetFred restricted us to £25, so we have £25 @ 4/1, Rodriguez.


BET PLACED

[Doobs]

What price do we want Wilkinson?  I can't believe after all this time the thread has been going, that the price still isn't mentioned anywhere.

The each way frims are 12/1 best with a fifth first 3. So we are backing a long term odds on chance if we think the best he can do is place.

It is virtually an arb on Betfair, but that would take a lot of money for a long time so that isn't really an option anyway, just saying it is there.

To me this looks like someone has had a good idea at a big price a month or so ago, and it has filtered down to here too late.

The ask price is slightly under 12/1 in the win market but the bet price well under and the place price on BF is under 2/1. How is this not a clear bet using your maths approach?

The 12/5 to make the top 3 is huge value using your usual criteria and we all know that if this was a golfer, snooker player, horse that you fancied/ wanted to bet coz it beats the Betfair price you would be using those numbers to tell everyone what a good bet it is. As you don't seem to fancy this you are trying to make out it is a bad bet by ignoring the maths.

If the guys think he has a decent chance to place then you know full well that the best way to go would be to bet ew at 12/1, lay the win part back at under that and keep the place bet at 12/5 when that part of the bet is under 2/1 on BF. Or does the math only count when you are putting your bets up and other peoples down?

Using up funds on that from an imaginary bank is no different from having a load of ante post football bets on any of the upcoming league seasons.

I do not put up every maths bet I find, I put up just the ones I think are value.  There are whole bunch of bets as marginal as this I just ignore.  I said it was a virtual arb on Betfair to be balanced, and I hadn't even seen it on my first post. You'd lose a bit on the win part (it is 13.5 and I am pretty sure it was when I looked) and make a bit more on the place part.

I virtually never arb myself, and have a pretty consistent record of opposing them when they are suggested.  I don't think it is wise to tie up £500 on an arb on the £37 win part available here.  We make something like a virtual tenner over 5 months or so on the £500, and it just isn't my thing.  I have precisely no arbs in place and can't remember any I have ever had over this timescale.  I am not the person you think I am.

I am not putting anybody's bets down, just giving a view on them.  I have put up hundreds of bets here and disagreed with far less.  My view is this looks like the tail of a bet somebody has got on earlier (he was 18/1 and 16/1 only yesterday, 33/1 just over a month ago), and I have explained beyond that why I don't like it. 

Please post more bets and positive stuff.

 

[Bazzaboy]

The obvious winner to me is froch although I am biased after backing him at 100/1 already. What other uk performance this year comes close to his?  Assuming we discount wwe type sports (IMO of course) which are team driven and people win to team orders ie cycling/f1

I tend to agree. Plus he is likely to have another high profile fight before the end of the year which won't do any harm (if he wins). I don't think Froch comes across as a particularly likeable individual but this won't take a lot of winning.

Won a dodgy fight. Behaved like a child. Won a better fight. Not the best fighter in his division. [Insert list of british super middleweights in the recent past who were much better candidates for this award here]

Ricky Hatton might well have won it his year if he hadn't been flattened the night before the award.

Genuinely, if he fought and beat Andre Ward in Vegas before December, that would be huge. Ward probably doesn't want to fight him and doesn't have to.

Monster prices obviously, so who am I to put people off a little bet?

To win this he is going to be heavily reliant on votes from people who don't know who Andre Ward is so I'm don't think not being number one in the division is much of a negative.  All the casual fan knows is he saw Froch win the "World" title at a packed Wembley Stadium which was a massive event. If he follows that up with a win in Vegas in November against the likes of JCC Jnr then he is a very live runner. It definitely looks like it would be difficult to make a valid argument for someone else to be more deserving of the award if that happened.

Calzaghe won a similarly weak renewal a few years back after beating Kessler.

[Tal]

The obvious winner to me is froch although I am biased after backing him at 100/1 already. What other uk performance this year comes close to his?  Assuming we discount wwe type sports (IMO of course) which are team driven and people win to team orders ie cycling/f1

I tend to agree. Plus he is likely to have another high profile fight before the end of the year which won't do any harm (if he wins). I don't think Froch comes across as a particularly likeable individual but this won't take a lot of winning.

Won a dodgy fight. Behaved like a child. Won a better fight. Not the best fighter in his division. [Insert list of british super middleweights in the recent past who were much better candidates for this award here]

Ricky Hatton might well have won it his year if he hadn't been flattened the night before the award.

Genuinely, if he fought and beat Andre Ward in Vegas before December, that would be huge. Ward probably doesn't want to fight him and doesn't have to.

Monster prices obviously, so who am I to put people off a little bet?

To win this he is going to be heavily reliant on votes from people who don't know who Andre Ward is so I'm don't think not being number one in the division is much of a negative.  All the casual fan knows is he saw Froch win the "World" title at a packed Wembley Stadium which was a massive event. If he follows that up with a win in Vegas in November against the likes of JCC Jnr then he is a very live runner. It definitely looks like it would be difficult to make a valid argument for someone else to be more deserving of the award if that happened.

Calzaghe won a similarly weak renewal a few years back after beating Kessler.

I can't argue with any of that.

I think I struggle with these bets when I know it's not "who deserves the award" but "who do I think will win" or even "which bets are value".

Think I'd still rather have Johnny at net and bice than Cobra at net.

[bobby1]

I don't for one minute think you are an arber Doobs, but this is a clear cut maths bet. The last win price matched on BF is 8.6 which tbf is to buttons but with there being decent money in there to lay at 13.5 it will be easy enough to lay it a shorter than that. The value is the place part of the bet at 12/5 which seemed a popular view, last price matched on BF in the place is 2.04 and 2.02. There is plenty of cash there to lay at 2.98 so the 12/5 place bet is great value.

Honest truth, if you found a horse that you could bet at 12/1 a 5th the odds 3 places you would back it whatever it was if the last matched prices on BF were 8.4 to win and 2.02/2.04 to place. If it's maths then it's maths it doesn't matter what the market is or if we like that type of event or not does it?

There have been plenty of selections put up for other events that you have backed up by saying its a bet using the numbers that are for more marginal than this bet, plenty of horses at RA put up ew using the place part of the bet as the main value when the win part is close enough/worse than  BF price at the time. How is this not a bet if they are?

If the price on one of those horses had been 16/1 but was now a great maths value at 10/1 you would back it, why does the fact this was a bigger price 2 days ago but is now still great value any different. It just looks like you don't like the bet so are trying to put people off it when you would be championing it with maths if it was something you fancied/selected.

[Marky147]

Can anyone get me a score on horsey's nag, please?

I'm plotted up at Claude's bar, so can't get into my Coral account...

10% commission if anyone can do, and you're nailed on if not

Mark,

I managed to get another £10 with Corals @ 16/1, so I have £30 in total now.

You can have 50% of that (£15), though I don't want any commission.

This is a private transaction between you & me, & does not affect Fred's position, Fred still has £20 win.

£10 will do me, Tikay, and then Fred gets the £20 recommended,

More than i could have got on with the nugget sportsbook!

Thanks very much

[bobby1]

What price do we want Wilkinson?  I can't believe after all this time the thread has been going, that the price still isn't mentioned anywhere.

The each way frims are 12/1 best with a fifth first 3. So we are backing a long term odds on chance if we think the best he can do is place.

It is virtually an arb on Betfair, but that would take a lot of money for a long time so that isn't really an option anyway, just saying it is there.

To me this looks like someone has had a good idea at a big price a month or so ago, and it has filtered down to here too late.

The ask price is slightly under 12/1 in the win market but the bet price well under and the place price on BF is under 2/1. How is this not a clear bet using your maths approach?

The 12/5 to make the top 3 is huge value using your usual criteria and we all know that if this was a golfer, snooker player, horse that you fancied/ wanted to bet coz it beats the Betfair price you would be using those numbers to tell everyone what a good bet it is. As you don't seem to fancy this you are trying to make out it is a bad bet by ignoring the maths.

If the guys think he has a decent chance to place then you know full well that the best way to go would be to bet ew at 12/1, lay the win part back at under that and keep the place bet at 12/5 when that part of the bet is under 2/1 on BF. Or does the math only count when you are putting your bets up and other peoples down?

Using up funds on that from an imaginary bank is no different from having a load of ante post football bets on any of the upcoming league seasons.

I do not put up every maths bet I find, I put up just the ones I think are value.  There are whole bunch of bets as marginal as this I just ignore.  I said it was a virtual arb on Betfair to be balanced, and I hadn't even seen it on my first post. You'd lose a bit on the win part (it is 13.5 and I am pretty sure it was when I looked) and make a bit more on the place part.

I virtually never arb myself, and have a pretty consistent record of opposing them when they are suggested.  I don't think it is wise to tie up £500 on an arb on the £37 win part available here.  We make something like a virtual tenner over 5 months or so on the £500, and it just isn't my thing.  I have precisely no arbs in place and can't remember any I have ever had over this timescale.  I am not the person you think I am.

I am not putting anybody's bets down, just giving a view on them.  I have put up hundreds of bets here and disagreed with far less.  My view is this looks like the tail of a bet somebody has got on earlier (he was 18/1 and 16/1 only yesterday, 33/1 just over a month ago), and I have explained beyond that why I don't like it. 

Please post more bets and positive stuff.

 

I do agree with you that I should really put up some bets instead of just commenting.


So I 2nd Tal's rec and suggest £25 ew on Wilkinson for Spoty because the win price is almost on the BF price and the place price is much bigger than the current BF price.

;o)

[tikay]

Can anyone get me a score on horsey's nag, please?

I'm plotted up at Claude's bar, so can't get into my Coral account...

10% commission if anyone can do, and you're nailed on if not

Mark,

I managed to get another £10 with Corals @ 16/1, so I have £30 in total now.

You can have 50% of that (£15), though I don't want any commission.

This is a private transaction between you & me, & does not affect Fred's position, Fred still has £20 win.

£10 will do me, Tikay, and then Fred gets the £20 recommended,

More than i could have got on with the nugget sportsbook!

Thanks very much

Tenner with me BOOKED Marky.

We just need it to win now, & that'll pay for a round at the Nugget bar.

[bobby1]

You can tell I'm out of touch with posting recs Tony , I forgot to add that Wilko is 12/1 a 1/5 the odds three places with Sportingbet and PP.

cheers

[Tal]

 

[doubleup]

deleted as too late

[samurai]

Thanks for the feedback on the Poulter suggestion Bobby.

My thinking was that in a particularly weak year it's not going to take much more than winning a major or a stellar Ryder Cup performance to be bang in contention regardless of Golfers weak record in SPOTY.

Just out of interests sake what price would he be to win the award if he did win the Open do people think?

[Marky147]

Can anyone get me a score on horsey's nag, please?

I'm plotted up at Claude's bar, so can't get into my Coral account...

10% commission if anyone can do, and you're nailed on if not

Mark,

I managed to get another £10 with Corals @ 16/1, so I have £30 in total now.

You can have 50% of that (£15), though I don't want any commission.

This is a private transaction between you & me, & does not affect Fred's position, Fred still has £20 win.

£10 will do me, Tikay, and then Fred gets the £20 recommended,

More than i could have got on with the nugget sportsbook!

Thanks very much

Tenner with me BOOKED Marky.

We just need it to win now, & that'll pay for a round at the Nugget bar.

Cheers, Tikay.

Pay for a night down here, nevermind a round

Gl us!

[DungBeetle]

Last leg of the Dimitrov, Raonic, Kvitova, Halep £100 quad incoming hopefully!  Cheeky 13-1 shot.

[TightEnd]

ever been sent a hospital pass?

At University I was playing rugby, in a trial match, and as an experienced player in my third year was making up the numbers while they tried out some new players, right at the beginning of the autumn term

About 5 minutes into this trial match this newbie fly half floated out an airy-fairy pass in my general direction. I knew what was about to happen before it did. I caught the pass high above my head and simultaneously got clattered head on by the opposition centre and flanker. one took the top part of me, the other the middle. Down I went. Up I got. Briefly

The next thing I knew I was waking up in a QMC Nottingham bed with a head bandage on and a ruptured kidney.

University rugby playing career over

A few weeks later, at Rock City in Nottingham was enjoying a babycham and student life again when the fly half who threw the pass came up to me and said "yeah sorry about that". On one arm was a blonde, on the other a brunette and he later went on to play for Saracens, just before professional days.

Anyway, I digress

tikay sent me a PM and said "leaving the office now, please deal with the SPOTY bets"

No flies on him.

Dealing with these SPOTY bets is a bit like receiving that hospital pass. Only slightly less painful than that, such is the range of views keenly expressed


We currently have £10 win Hamilton 9-1

the rest of the market is horrible. If it were a dog you would put this year's SPOTY down

The two views most strongly felt are Wilkinson and Froch. I don't like either, but could easily be wrong   

I don't personally feel £25 e/w on this market is right. its too big for this portfolio and this event

so i have placed the following. tikay, in his wisdom of disappearing at the least opportune moment, can add if he sees fit

both are with sportingbet

        Bet Type: Single
            BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2014 Outright Winner
                Jonny Wilkinson 12/1
                Each Way: 1/5 1 - 3
        Possible Payout 164.00 GBP
    2 bets @
    10.00 GBP
        Bet Type: Single
            BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2014 Outright Winner
                Carl Froch 11/1
                Each Way: 1/5 1 - 3
        Possible Payout 152.00 GBP
    2 bets @
    10.00 GBP

    Total Cost: 40.00 GBP
    Total Possible Payout (inc. stake):



All named contenders are listed below

Lewis Hamilton    
15/8
Chris Froome    
11/4
Andy Murray    
8/1
Carl Froch    
11/1
Jonny Wilkinson    
12/1
Rory McIlroy    
18/1
Gareth Bale    
20/1
Lizzy Yarnold    
25/1
Mo Farah    
28/1
Kelly Gallagher    
40/1
Steven Gerrard    
50/1
Bradley Wiggins    
66/1
Justin Rose    
66/1
Laura Robson    
66/1
Lee Westwood    
66/1
Mark Cavendish    
66/1
Tom Daley    
66/1
Amir Khan    
80/1
AP McCoy    
80/1
Ian Poulter    
80/1
Luke Donald    
80/1
Phil Taylor    
80/1
Ronnie O Sullivan    
80/1
Christine Ohuruogu    
100/1
Wayne Rooney    
100/1
Heather Watson    
1


not a clue here, and we now look to have a reasonable three against the field to me, taking into account the very sensible view expressed on the golfers