Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

Last leg of the Dimitrov, Raonic, Kvitova, Halep £100 quad incoming hopefully!  Cheeky 13-1 shot.

FML.  Halep's game all about movement. 

"Bad news for Halep, the Romanian slides into a two-handed backhand and goes over on her ankle slightly. She looks like she stopped herself in time not to go over completely but she limps over to the chair, having conceded the game, to receive treatment."

[JaffaCake]

What price is Dai Greene?

[arbboy]

What price is Dai Greene?

rofl

[bobby1]

Thanks for the feedback on the Poulter suggestion Bobby.

My thinking was that in a particularly weak year it's not going to take much more than winning a major or a stellar Ryder Cup performance to be bang in contention regardless of Golfers weak record in SPOTY.

Just out of interests sake what price would he be to win the award if he did win the Open do people think?

Well Clarky was very short price the year he played in the Ryder Cup ( was around 1/3 I think on the morning of Spoty), was a sickener for me that a I took a punt at 66/1 the week he was picked for the team. What probably did him was the NOTW ran a big 'exclusive' that morning about the girl he was seeing so soon after his wife had passed away, innuendo innuendo etc.

Gmac was about 11/2 third fav on the morning of Spoty the year he won the US Open but I can't recall what price Clarke or Rose were the years they won a major. It's just so tough to put a price on it now should x win The Open because a few of the athletes could well be much shorter later in the year. I think there is a chance for example Stephen Gallacher or Paul Lawrie would have a better chance of winning Spoty if they won the Open than a mid ranking English player as with Andy Murray unlikely to win it now there might be a decent sized nationality bias towards a Scots or Irish and  Welsh finalist but that's just a guess on my part.  Paul Lawrie was 10 shots behind going into the last round when he won  the Open in 1999 and didn't win Spoty, tho its fair to say the voting system and nominations are a little different now.

6 of the last 7 winners were not English, Calzaghe, Hoy, Giggs Mccoy and Cavendish . Andy Murray rightly won it last year but Leigh Halfpenny managed to finish 2nd to him and Mark Cavendish was the winner the year that Clarke won the Open so getting beaten by a non English cyclist when one of the most popular golfers wins the Open must be a worrying sign. Tony McCoy would probably have won it anyway but got a tremendous amount of help from racing.

From a golfing point of view Rory would obviously have a chance to benefit from a nationality bias if he wins the Open but he is 12/1 fixed odds to win that and only 20/1 to win SPOTY so by taking 20/1 in Spoty now you would be putting him in at 8/13 to win Spoty should he win the Open. That actually sounds like it might be close to the mark and with an added bonus that he could also win the PGA and/or play a crucial role in a last point winner/holes the winning putt type ending to the Ryder Cup. Even then you are still open to having an athlete win the World and Rory could be second fav again unless he does win 2 majors etc. So I guess Rory would be the only main named golfer I could back for Spoty at the moment but then again you can just take 12/1 or probably bigger nearer the event for the Open and only one of those things needs to happen for you to be on a nice priced winner.

cheers

Edit, my bad Samurai I spent so long typing that out that I then ignored what you asked. Poulter is 100/1 fixed odds to win Spoty and 50/1 to win the Open so you are betting he would be around evens to win Spoty if he wins the Open. If he doesn't win the Open the problem you then have is he is less likely to make the Ryder cup team as he is struggling to make the team at the moment. So no Open win and he is very unlikely to win Spoty so again the 50/1 winner you would have if you bet him for the Open looks much better than the 100/1 for Spoty,. I

If he doesn't win the Open then you can still back him to win the PGA championship at a decent price too which would be his last chance to force himself into Spoty contention unless he does make the Ryder Cup team.  He would then have to do something miraculous at the Ryder Cup to even get into the nominations and when was the last time Poulter pulled out a miracle at the Ryder Cup? ;o)

[Ironside]

Commonwealth games will bring some strangers from obscure sports into market IMHO add to that athletics when a gold medal winner there adds a euro medal in Zurich and you have a track star to get behind especially if it's one if the new young sprinters

[bobby1]

ever been sent a hospital pass?

At University I was playing rugby, in a trial match, and as an experienced player in my third year was making up the numbers while they tried out some new players, right at the beginning of the autumn term

About 5 minutes into this trial match this newbie fly half floated out an airy-fairy pass in my general direction. I knew what was about to happen before it did. I caught the pass high above my head and simultaneously got clattered head on by the opposition centre and flanker. one took the top part of me, the other the middle. Down I went. Up I got. Briefly

The next thing I knew I was waking up in a QMC Nottingham bed with a head bandage on and a ruptured kidney.

University rugby playing career over

A few weeks later, at Rock City in Nottingham was enjoying a babycham and student life again when the fly half who threw the pass came up to me and said "yeah sorry about that". On one arm was a blonde, on the other a brunette and he later went on to play for Saracens, just before professional days.

Anyway, I digress

tikay sent me a PM and said "leaving the office now, please deal with the SPOTY bets"

No flies on him.

Dealing with these SPOTY bets is a bit like receiving that hospital pass. Only slightly less painful than that, such is the range of views keenly expressed


We currently have £10 win Hamilton 9-1

the rest of the market is horrible. If it were a dog you would put this year's SPOTY down

The two views most strongly felt are Wilkinson and Froch. I don't like either, but could easily be wrong   

I don't personally feel £25 e/w on this market is right. its too big for this portfolio and this event

so i have placed the following. tikay, in his wisdom of disappearing at the least opportune moment, can add if he sees fit

both are with sportingbet

        Bet Type: Single
            BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2014 Outright Winner
                Jonny Wilkinson 12/1
                Each Way: 1/5 1 - 3
        Possible Payout 164.00 GBP
    2 bets @
    10.00 GBP
        Bet Type: Single
            BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2014 Outright Winner
                Carl Froch 11/1
                Each Way: 1/5 1 - 3
        Possible Payout 152.00 GBP
    2 bets @
    10.00 GBP

    Total Cost: 40.00 GBP
    Total Possible Payout (inc. stake):



All named contenders are listed below

Lewis Hamilton    
15/8
Chris Froome    
11/4
Andy Murray    
8/1
Carl Froch    
11/1
Jonny Wilkinson    
12/1
Rory McIlroy    
18/1
Gareth Bale    
20/1
Lizzy Yarnold    
25/1
Mo Farah    
28/1
Kelly Gallagher    
40/1
Steven Gerrard    
50/1
Bradley Wiggins    
66/1
Justin Rose    
66/1
Laura Robson    
66/1
Lee Westwood    
66/1
Mark Cavendish    
66/1
Tom Daley    
66/1
Amir Khan    
80/1
AP McCoy    
80/1
Ian Poulter    
80/1
Luke Donald    
80/1
Phil Taylor    
80/1
Ronnie O Sullivan    
80/1
Christine Ohuruogu    
100/1
Wayne Rooney    
100/1
Heather Watson    
1


not a clue here, and we now look to have a reasonable three against the field to me, taking into account the very sensible view expressed on the golfers

love it Rich, we all seem to think its a waste of time but then spend a load of time thinking about it and betting on it.

proper sickos in here.

[arbboy]

commonwealth games are literally worthless in the bigger picture of world sport.  Just can't see anything happening at them that would ever make someone win SPOTY even in a quiet year like this.  Think the key angle this year is ignoring athletes at these games for value.

[Longy]

The thing with the commonwealths is that winning even multiple medals is not that great of an achievement. Has anyone even come close before for a performance at the commonwealths? Even in a weak year, I struggle to see the winner coming from that alone.

[arbboy]

The thing with the commonwealths is that winning even multiple medals is not that great of an achievement. Has anyone even come close before for a performance at the commonwealths? Even in a weak year, I struggle to see the winner coming from that alone.

snap!

[Tal]

The thing with the commonwealths is that winning even multiple medals is not that great of an achievement. Has anyone even come close before for a performance at the commonwealths? Even in a weak year, I struggle to see the winner coming from that alone.

snap!

The only one that could buck that trend is a brit winning the men's 100m. To do that, they'd need to break the British record (9.92 iirc) by a good tenth of a second, beat Bolt, Blake and however many others turn up and then we all wake up and remember that's not going to happen.

Cram, Jackson and Johnson's reactions would be worth viewing, mind.

[Ironside]

The thing with the commonwealths is that winning even multiple medals is not that great of an achievement. Has anyone even come close before for a performance at the commonwealths? Even in a weak year, I struggle to see the winner coming from that alone.

snap!

The only one that could buck that trend is a brit winning the men's 100m. To do that, they'd need to break the British record (9.92 iirc) by a good tenth of a second, beat Bolt, Blake and however many others turn up and then we all wake up and remember that's not going to happen.

Cram, Jackson and Johnson's reactions would be worth viewing, mind.

bolt is only in the 4x100, thing with athletics is there is the euros still to come so the Glasgow games is a launch pad

[bobby1]

The thing with the commonwealths is that winning even multiple medals is not that great of an achievement. Has anyone even come close before for a performance at the commonwealths? Even in a weak year, I struggle to see the winner coming from that alone.

snap!

well I guess you could say who could have seen Zara Philliips winning a Horsey thing at the end of August in 2006 and then winning Spoty, think she went from not even in the list to fav that week so stranger things than an athlete winning gold medals and getting nominated have happened. ;o)

[Tal]

The thing with the commonwealths is that winning even multiple medals is not that great of an achievement. Has anyone even come close before for a performance at the commonwealths? Even in a weak year, I struggle to see the winner coming from that alone.

snap!

The only one that could buck that trend is a brit winning the men's 100m. To do that, they'd need to break the British record (9.92 iirc) by a good tenth of a second, beat Bolt, Blake and however many others turn up and then we all wake up and remember that's not going to happen.

Cram, Jackson and Johnson's reactions would be worth viewing, mind.

bolt is only in the 4x100, thing with athletics is there is the euros still to come so the Glasgow games is a launch pad

Fair enough, but our two guys to run sub-10 seconds are both at home (Dasaolu and Ujah), while Gemili, Henry A-A and Kilty must be odds against to final

[bobby1]

The thing with the commonwealths is that winning even multiple medals is not that great of an achievement. Has anyone even come close before for a performance at the commonwealths? Even in a weak year, I struggle to see the winner coming from that alone.

snap!

The only one that could buck that trend is a brit winning the men's 100m. To do that, they'd need to break the British record (9.92 iirc) by a good tenth of a second, beat Bolt, Blake and however many others turn up and then we all wake up and remember that's not going to happen.

Cram, Jackson and Johnson's reactions would be worth viewing, mind.

In 1981 Bob Champion didn't win Sports personality after recovering from his death bed and riding a horse that was only kept in training to give him something to look forward to in his recovery to victory in the Grand National. They were awarded the team award instead, a few years ago a guy that jumps into a pool was nominated and David Walliams was being put forward as a likely winner one year too. It doesn't take a lot to get into the list these days.

[Tal]

The thing with the commonwealths is that winning even multiple medals is not that great of an achievement. Has anyone even come close before for a performance at the commonwealths? Even in a weak year, I struggle to see the winner coming from that alone.

snap!

The only one that could buck that trend is a brit winning the men's 100m. To do that, they'd need to break the British record (9.92 iirc) by a good tenth of a second, beat Bolt, Blake and however many others turn up and then we all wake up and remember that's not going to happen.

Cram, Jackson and Johnson's reactions would be worth viewing, mind.

In 1981 Bob Champion didn't win Sports personality after recovering from his death bed and riding a horse that was only kept in training to give him something to look forward to in his recovery to victory in the Grand National. They were awarded the team award instead, a few years ago a guy that jumps into a pool was nominated and David Walliams was being put forward as a likely winner one year too. It doesn't take a lot to get into the list these days.

In my day, men were men. None of this rolling around on the floor lark. Henry Cooper used to get hit in the face every morning with an iron bar just because it hardened him up. Did he complain? No. He just got better and knocked Ali down with that proper British steel. Nowadays, you see these sportsmen with their I-Prods and Nintendos in their Goochy bags and you can't help wondering what's gone wrong with society.

FYP