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Bad Beat
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« Reply #82425 on: July 10, 2014, 01:12:45 PM » |
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£45 waiting there at 29/1 if anyone fancies laying. I would be very happy to bet him at 50/1 and I'd not want to lay him at any bigger than 14/1 at this stage. I actually think his advantage over the field is MASSIVELY underestimated by the general public. I tried to bet him at 400/1 at the start and nobody would match me.
He has 8x average right now. He is better than almost everyone he will face by some way. Given that there are 1400 left and they get down to about 600 by this time tomorrow, how would you be feeling if he got through with just four times the average at that stage? (that would mean he'd had a bad day really). It's not that harde to see him being in the last 100 with double the average. I wouldn't want to lay 20/1 then. Imagine how much he can abuse the bubble...
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« Last Edit: July 10, 2014, 01:16:10 PM by Bad Beat »
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arbboy
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« Reply #82426 on: July 10, 2014, 01:26:34 PM » |
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Assume starting stack of 30k and 1400 left out of 6500ish (20% of the field left). Therefore average now is roughly 150k surely? So he only has 4 times average surely? Unless my maths is wrong?
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Doobs
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« Reply #82427 on: July 10, 2014, 01:31:44 PM » |
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I laid everyone on this market the last couple of years and Ivey and Hellmuth are easily the most popular. You can basically lay them for as much as you dare and not lay much over 100/1 at the start with a 10k stack. Haven't laid a penny this year. #rungood.
I wouldn't lay him right now at 50/1, I think somewhere around 33/1 feels about right. I read on pokernews earlier he himself wanted to bet $50k at evens he didn't make the final table which must be the right side. Wouldn't want to lay 10/1.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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Bad Beat
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« Reply #82428 on: July 10, 2014, 01:32:37 PM » |
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Sorry, you are right, brain fart, was looking at chip average on PokerNews without thinking (not sure what they were doing). Roughly 4 times. There is an assumption that he must come back to the pack though. He is more likely to kick-on given his skill edge over the average player.
Anyone want to lay evens he finishes 100th or better?
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Doobs
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« Reply #82429 on: July 10, 2014, 01:39:11 PM » |
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Go on just for sport, you probably have the right side and I am 0/2 on TfT bets with Dubai, but £100 ok?
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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Bad Beat
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« Reply #82430 on: July 10, 2014, 01:42:49 PM » |
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Done (I came up with a feel price and then realised I wasn't really sure how to calculate it...that's poor.
Will do more at 120th and better if anyone wants...
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Bad Beat
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« Reply #82431 on: July 10, 2014, 02:20:26 PM » |
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Done (I came up with a feel price and then realised I wasn't really sure how to calculate it...that's poor).
Will do more at 120th and better if anyone wants...
Phew! (did not get snap-called, can't be too far out). |
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arbboy
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« Reply #82432 on: July 10, 2014, 02:37:59 PM » |
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Done (I came up with a feel price and then realised I wasn't really sure how to calculate it...that's poor).
Will do more at 120th and better if anyone wants...
Phew! (did not get snap-called, can't be too far out). on 2p2 mike mcdonald aka "timex" is offering odds of 150/1 on ivey winning .also taking final table bets at a v generous price. i am busto , if you get on feel free to send me a beer! bagel just posted this on the wsop thread on the rail! Assume you will be interested! Shame timex hasn't got a bf account otherwise he could do it so much cheaper. |
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Bad Beat
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« Reply #82433 on: July 10, 2014, 03:02:57 PM » |
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He's tweeting to say he is offering 50/1. Have attempted to get in touch.
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RobS
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« Reply #82434 on: July 10, 2014, 03:16:03 PM » |
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Looks like there are 1,864 left (1,400 must be the figure through from  ). Ivey has 505k, average is 107k. He has 1/397th of the chips in play. I've got this from pokernews. |
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Bad Beat
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« Reply #82435 on: July 10, 2014, 03:19:12 PM » |
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What's your finishing position for it to be evens under and evens over Rob?
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RobS
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« Reply #82436 on: July 10, 2014, 03:33:47 PM » |
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What's your finishing position for it to be evens under and evens over Rob?
100th seems fair but not got a good feel for that at all. |
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arbboy
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« Reply #82437 on: July 10, 2014, 03:35:43 PM » |
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What would a fixed odds over/under look like compared to a spread with say a 25 point middle on ivey finishing position given the potential huge swings?
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Bad Beat
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« Reply #82439 on: July 10, 2014, 04:17:39 PM » |
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Tough question 250ish?
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