Tips for Tikay

[toddswain]

What do people think about alexis Sanchez 20/1 top goalscorer next season, with 1/4 odds paying top 4 places on the each way part. Seems a reasonable price ? Would he take pens?

[Doobs]

Continuing the discussion on there are different ways to make money from betting.  I subscribed to Neil's website during Ascot.  I am pretty sure that at no stage did he mention backing anything at the big price on the 8.30 offers or tell anyone to back the favourite under the William Hill offer.  If you asked him if taking the offers I took was value, I am confident he would say yes for most.  

A couple of people also linked to a website which was making Ascot tips.  I went to that website and they seemed oblivious to the good each way races.  Not backing some of their runners each way looked sure to be a mistake to me, but I wouldn't have anywhere near the same confidence that they wouldn't make money in the long run.  Some people are simply going to always have a better feel than me even if their maths isn't so good.  It doesn't mean that it is impossible for both of us to make money.  

Bringing his back to golf, I am sure you can produce very good results by taking into account all the variables, but am equally confident you can make money by just making bets when the maths is compelling.  

[TightEnd]

Boxing

Eddie Hearn is serving up a card full of uncompetitive tripe this weekend.  That said one fight has caught my eye.  Rocky Fielding is a super-middle prospect who has yet to really be tested.  He is up against Noe Gonzalez Alcoba, an Argentinian with a good record on paper but it's difficult to gauge just how good he is as he has campaigned in South America.  He has however stepped up in class 3 times and been exposed against Felix Sturm, Adonis Stevenson and George Groves.  He has lost all of them however all 3 are world class operators so no shame in those defeats and all three would record comfortable wins against Fielding if there paths were to cross at this stage.

This fight reminds me a lot of a fight involving another super middle prospect, Frank Buglioni who lost at long odds on against Sergey Khomitsky.  Khomistsky had multiple defeats on his record but when you went through it everyone who had beaten him was a far better fighter than Buglioni was.  I think we have a similar spot here.  We can get 12/1 on Alcoba with 365 which has to be too big.  Recommend £15 if you can get it (11/1 with 888 is fine and would happily take 10/1 as well).

Sorry this took so long to action

42p max with b3t365 at 12-1

No 888, and Paddy Power is no good either

I got over just 10-1 with Betfair

    Bouts 12 July / Fielding v Alcoba / Match Odds    Noe Gonzalez Alcoba    Back    39077152672    11-Jul-14
09:46         11    10.00       11    11-Jul-14 09:46    
   Bouts 12 July / Fielding v Alcoba / Match Odds    Noe Gonzalez Alcoba    Back    39077150197    11-Jul-14
09:46         11.5    4.85       11.5    11-Jul-14 09:46 

[horseplayer]

Thanks for reply

I can completely understand why betting each way in a 16 runner handicap is great but doing the same in a 15 runner event is not.

I just cant see how the calculation with golf betting works, obviously 8 places is better than 5 but is the 8 places just not reverting more to what the terms should be on such a big field event?

cheers

[TightEnd]

Betfair Sportsbook are biggest on Martin Kaymer and Graeme McDowell for the Open.  Kaymer's win price is more or less on the exchange win price, McDowell's place price is more or less the exchange price on the place (5 places only). 

Suggest it is fairly +EV to bet £15 e/w Kaymer and £10 e/w on McDowell before the price goes on the Sportsbook.

Paddies are paying 7 places but they don't like my money.

 Singles
Odds Stake
The Open Championship 2014

    28/1
    £555.00
    Graeme McDowell
    The Open Winner - 8 Places
    £15 EW

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000053
    20/1
    £405.00
    Martin Kaymer
    The Open Winner - 8 Places
    £15 EW

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000054

[TightEnd]

Integral is 3-1 with Coral at 8:30am this morning, max stake £10 and still qualifies for their offer if beaten by a head money back as a free bet. Only a tenner but probably worth doing.

Missed this, sorry. not early enough

tricky day at newmarket today anyway, been tipping it down

[TightEnd]

What do people think about alexis Sanchez 20/1 top goalscorer next season, with 1/4 odds paying top 4 places on the each way part. Seems a reasonable price ? Would he take pens?

think this is very interesting. not sure on pens..was never likely to be on them at barca, but arteta is being moved on....

Click to see full-size image.

statistical output from last season.

He was fourth in La Liga in goalscoring rate at .72 per 90 mins and fourth in scoring contribution (combined non-penalty goals and assists per 90 minutes) at 1.09, behind Ronaldo, Messi, and Gareth Bale.

That last number would also have put him fourth in the Premier League last season, behind Sergio Aguero, Luis Suarez, and Daniel Sturridge

obviously he can play up top and out wide so gives a lot of tactical flexibility

whether he is rotated, settles into english football etc i don't know

[horseplayer]

Put some thoughts on the Arsenal thread

For some reason i have a doubt about him even though i am a massive fan of him.

That makes no sense really, however i would point out he had a near dreadful first season at Udinese and a slowish start at Barcelona.

Maybe he just needs time to adapt to a new league/surroundings.

20's is about what would i price him up at tbh

[TightEnd]

http://www.wsop.com/pdfs/reports/13665/EV65-Day-4-Counts-by-Seat.pdf

ivey ended on 522,500 and they are 50 off the bubble with 746 left resuming tomorrow

[Doobs]

Thanks for reply

I can completely understand why betting each way in a 16 runner handicap is great but doing the same in a 15 runner event is not.

I just cant see how the calculation with golf betting works, obviously 8 places is better than 5 but is the 8 places just not reverting more to what the terms should be on such a big field event?

cheers

No I don't think so.  Say a player is 100/1 and that matches the exchange price.  If you asked me the price for him to come 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th of 8th I would say it was about 100/1 for each one.  It might be slightly more, it might be slightly less, but I am very confident I am in the right ballpark.  So the percentage of time he is in the top 8 is 1x8 = 8%.  So the "correct" odds on him finishing top 8 should be about 12/1.  The sportsbook mentioned above are giving us 25/1.  Even allowing fort the fact that 100/1 is slightly wrong, then taking 100/1 each way on this golfer is going to be clearly good in the long run.

If a golfer is 12/1 it doesn't work that way, as they are going to be much bigger than 12/1 for 8th.  So backing this golfer with the Sportsbook is unlikely to be as good, particularly if he is 16/1 on the exchange.  Also finding 100/1 golfers on the sportsbook that match the exchange isn't so simple.

As it is, I am sure someone at that sportsbook knows that they could get a beating if everybody was clever with this offer.  But a mixture of people using the offer badly, people betting win only and the odd good result for them means that the offer could still work out well for them even as a stand alone.  And when they lose on the offer, they can still win through aditional acquisition of new punters.  

[tikay]

On this Open Golf Betfair Offer, how many are we.....

1) Allowed to back?

2) Should we back?

We ought to continue this debate, as I don't fully understand it all, but in the meantime, our Golf Chaps might suggest a list of names that "fit" the offer.

[Doobs]

On this Open Golf Betfair Offer, how many are we.....

1) Allowed to back?

2) Should we back?

We ought to continue this debate, as I don't fully understand it all, but in the meantime, our Golf Chaps might suggest a list of names that "fit" the offer.

As many as we think we can get away with that fit.  I don't think you can get away with 50 for instance, but less than 10 might be fine.  All this is guesswork.  The two above just looked like 2 that would be picked off early, so that is why we needed to act more quickly. 

I think there were 2 others that went 8 places last year, so we might be able to wait and spread bets around. 

[doubleup]

Thanks for reply

I can completely understand why betting each way in a 16 runner handicap is great but doing the same in a 15 runner event is not.

I just cant see how the calculation with golf betting works, obviously 8 places is better than 5 but is the 8 places just not reverting more to what the terms should be on such a big field event?

cheers

No I don't think so.  Say a player is 100/1 and that matches the exchange price.  If you asked me the price for him to come 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th of 8th I would say it was about 100/1 for each one.  It might be slightly more, it might be slightly less, but I am very confident I am in the right ballpark.  So the percentage of time he is in the top 8 is 1x8 = 8%.  So the "correct" odds on him finishing top 8 should be about 12/1.  The sportsbook mentioned above are giving us 25/1.  Even allowing fort the fact that 100/1 is slightly wrong, then taking 100/1 each way on this golfer is going to be clearly good in the long run.

If a golfer is 12/1 it doesn't work that way, as they are going to be much bigger than 12/1 for 8th.  So backing this golfer with the Sportsbook is unlikely to be as good, particularly if he is 16/1 on the exchange.  Also finding 100/1 golfers on the sportsbook that match the exchange isn't so simple.

As it is, I am sure someone at that sportsbook knows that they could get a beating if everybody was clever with this offer.  But a mixture of people using the offer badly, people betting win only and the odd good result for them means that the offer could still work out well for them even as a stand alone.  And when they lose on the offer, they can still win through aditional acquisition of new punters.  

In completely simple terms lets say in a golf tournament of 120 players, everyone is equal ability and priced 100-1.  So that's a pretty big edge for the bookies.

If they go 1/4 6 places, you can back the whole field each way and lay out 240 and get back 101 for the winner and 6x 26 for the places.  So that's a return of 257 for an outlay of 240.

Obviously a contrived example but the same value must exist in normal markets when the book odds are anywhere near the true odds.

[TightEnd]

betfair sportsbook

thomas bjorn 55-1, top price

5 top ten finishes in the open, including 4th 3 years ago.

top ten in the masters this year, top 3 in the bmw pga, top 10 in the bmw international

accurate, low flight, so decent results on links fit, particularly if the wind blows


someone for the shortlist?

- trying to find accurate drivers, decent event record, where sportsbook prices are competitive

[Doobs]

betfair sportsbook

thomas bjorn 55-1, top price

5 top ten finishes in the open, including 4th 3 years ago.

top ten in the masters this year, top 3 in the bmw pga, top 10 in the bmw international

accurate, low flight, so decent results on links fit, particularly if the wind blows


someone for the shortlist?

- trying to find accurate drivers, decent event record, where sportsbook prices are competitive

I did almost put him up last night too.  His price is a little below the exchange (60/65) and his place price is a bit below the place price for 5, but we get 8 places.  Overall he is a bit more marginal on the maths than the other two.  Don't think it can be a bad bet if you think the other things are relevant.  Some of his form isn't going to be so relevant as it is on different courses and he isn't the golfer he once was.  But he didn't use to start at 55/1, so that is all in the price.

You might get better next week, you might not, so I definitely won't put you off.  A lot depends on Tikay's appetite for these golf bets.  I don't think he'll want £700 on by tomorrow, and that may mean there is no space for other bets on the Open (this is partly why I didn't just say max £25 e/w on both). If he is happy with it, I am. I think I personally backed 30 odd last year, spread over several bookies (think the max was 8 with one).