Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

None of the four amateurs made the cut in the Open. Should this market not be settled as a dead-heat or voided?

What was the actual market?  Top Amateur?  I would imagine it would be settled on the lowest score if all four missed the cut although i am guessing.  There is no real significance of all 4 of them missing the cut.  There is still a clear winner for the market to be settled on imo.

[BigAdz]

None of the four amateurs made the cut in the Open. Should this market not be settled as a dead-heat or voided?

You would imagine the best score still wins, but maybe the bookies are being like the R&A and if you're an amatuer, and dont get through to final two rounds you don't get your medal!

[Bazzaboy]

The bottom qtr of the draw is definitely the toughest.  MVG has a very soft top 1/4 of the draw to operate in and it would be a major surprise if he didn't make the semi's with that draw.  Taylor is into 4.6/4.7 on bf now which technically makes the offer slightly more attractive.  Taylor only has one player shorter than 80/1 in his 1/4 of the draw (Thornton who is 45/1 shot) so it would seem highly likely Taylor gets to the semi's and it seems pointless backing anyone in his quarter as if they beat Taylor they are massively unlikely to win the event.

I would be tempted to add RVB and Wade into the portfolio by having £10 on each.

MVP is 13/8 with bald (bottom price obviously with the offer).  I would like doobs input into whether his is still a bet given the offer.  MVP is 23/10 tight on bf.

I'm pretty bullish on Wade this week. He has been in decent form on the floor and his record here is excellent.

[arbboy]

Assume he will be pretty motivated over the next 6 months to prove his premier league snub was wrong.

[TightEnd]

ok

Wade and RVB

Would you have any objections if i did MVG, best price somewhere....as a cover in case Taylor does not win?

I intend to avoid the MVG and Taylor quarters for the Betfred offer

I can't see it makes much sense to do both Wright and Anderson either as they are scheduled to meet second round? One or the other, or Cavan? the preference is?

[TightEnd]

£10.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
World Matchplay
Outright Betting
   Wade, James    12/1    
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 130.00
Bet ref: 388/423 £10.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
World Matchplay
Outright Betting
   Van Barneveld, Raymond    14/1    
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 150.00
Full stake   £ 20.00
Full estimated return   £ 280.0


World Matchplay Darts - Taylor Refund!

Saturday 19th – Sunday 27th July

If Phil Taylor wins the World Matchplay Darts, we'll refund all losing Outright singles up to £100 as a free bet!

[arbboy]

Preference is for Anderson as Wright has a very tough first round game against the unseeded Bunting (not enough ranking points yet in the PDC to be seeded but should be a seed on talent).  Along with Lewis, Ando, Bunting, King and Kim Huyb it really makes the bottom 1/4 the qtr from hell.  Jamie Caven must have seen the draw and thought 'is there any point going to Blackpool!'.  He has got to potentially beat 3 of the top 7 in the betting just to get to the semis.

Not sure we need to do any savers for MVG at top price.  To be honest i am not sure if it's worth backing anyone in the bottom qtr given how tough it is.

[TightEnd]

Preference is for Anderson as Wright has a very tough first round game against the unseeded Bunting (not enough ranking points yet in the PDC to be seeded but should be a seed on talent).  Along with Lewis, Ando, Bunting, King and Kim Huyb it really makes the bottom 1/4 the qtr from hell.  Jamie Caven must have seen the draw and thought 'is there any point going to Blackpool!'.  He has got to potentially beat 3 of the top 7 in the betting just to get to the semis.

Not sure we need to do any savers for MVG at top price.  To be honest i am not sure if it's worth backing anyone in the bottom qtr given how tough it is.

ok we will stick with the two above then

[arbboy]

The more i look at the draw the more i like MVP at 23/10 tbh.  Doobs has just popped up maybe he can give his input into whether its +ev backing MVP at 13/8 with the free bet.  Pretty sure it isn't.

[BigAdz]

Its fairly clear Rory is uncomfortable when they are charging around him. As the challenges have not been sustained he has regrouped and he could have this won by the 14th......

[Kmac84]

What was the view of the math experts on laying Tiger to miss the cut? 

[Doobs]

The more i look at the draw the more i like MVP at 23/10 tbh.  Doobs has just popped up maybe he can give his input into whether its +ev backing MVP at 13/8 with the free bet.  Pretty sure it isn't.

It looks about bang on the same value to me, so suspect they know this and have priced knowing exactly how much their "offer" is worth.  

It is said higher up that we need to choose between two darts players if they meet in the 2nd round.  If the offer adds some value to each, it is entirely possible they could both be good bets.  Only one of the bets can win anyway, so I don't really see much difference between backing those two and backing people in alternate halves.  Likewise I font really think it matters if you are due to meet Taylor before the final.  I backed Ali Carter in last year's Workd Championship and still got my Rocket refund despite O'Sullivan killing my main bet in round 2.

It is like the golf in a way.  Some people clearly think it is ridiculous to back 30 or 40 golfers in The Open.  But if all the offers mean you find 30 or 40 good bets, that seems to be exactly the amount you should make.  I did a similar sweep on The Scottish Open and I managed to find 5 bets, and evey single one was probably more marginal than any I made this week.  I don't think I am making any mistakes with my betting here, those who bet 3 golfers a week regardless of the value are those making the errors.  It is like Ascot and Cheltenham, you don't get these events every week and you should definitely make the most of them when they are here.

I must make it clear that I haven't assessed the darts offer at all, so I have no idea if they are adding any value here. The MVG price suggests not, but will just have a quick look.  Sorry I am on my phone so can't really do it whilst typing a post.

[Junior Senior]

Where is the Taylor offer?

[Doobs]

Wade and Anderson have identical Betfair prices, so they both have the same added value.  Mathematically, you are making bets that should return 7% in the long run. I assumed the free bet was worth 90% of its value.  So these bets aren't as good as those on The Open, but should beat your average TfT bet.  

 If I was to back MVG, I'd just take the best price elsewhere, because free bets aren't worth 100% of their value and have a hassle factor.  

[Doobs]

Where is the Taylor offer?

BaldFred