Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Thanks for the feedback on the horse.

I understand the worry about keeping accounts open.

I think this has been discussed before. I don't bother with e/w doubles etc online and will go into shops instead for those.

I still like to throw in the odd multiple horse racing or football bet to play on a point raised by Rich Trigg ages ago about giving the bookies something that keeps your account open.

Its interesting - I'll typically have a few hundred pounds on various single horse racing bets on a Saturday morning between 8-10am, and those prices usually tumble significantly by the afternoon.

If you throw in a £20 or £30 multiple on those 5 or 6 horses in trebles upwards, then you are getting great prices compared to the SP and the bookies like multiples.

I don't think its a bad strategy given the brilliant post by Ed Gascoigne (I think) about +EV multiple betting a while ago.

Not sure Badbeat or Arbboy will agree with me though!!

Course it's a great bet long term.  The problem with multiples is you are buying increased variance but as long as you are betting accordingly to your roll then it shouldn't be a problem.  If it helps keep accounts open then it's def worth doing.

Dunno, depends on whether you beat Betfair or not.  SPs can be pretty brutal at times and practically everything can shorten in a race. 

I not actually sure how much putting bad bets helps that much.  If you put a couple of dirty each ways at Pontefract through an account, I don't think they are going to care too much if you put a tenner through the casino or once put a double on.  I think you definitely need to balance things a bit, you can't just bet the offers at Paddies or whatever.

Having said this with some of the accounts, I just can't work out what I did wrong.  Some I can take a reasonable go at, but Ladbrokes really did seem to close my account after a win in the Derby of all races, and Paddies have saved me fortunes over the last few months by restricting an account that was losing money (it is about -£700 now, given they started restricting when it was around £500 better than this, I am guessing they have saved me a grand or so). 

[tikay]

Should we have an interest in the Proper Cricket Test Match which starts shortly?

England won the tossy thing, & bat first.

India are 3/1, 15/8 the draw, & England 6/4.

I don't recall the last time England won a Proper Cricket match, but they are the jolly. Do these prices reflect reality?

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-india/3rd-test/winner

In-play, with England 25-0, India are now 5/1.

[tikay]

victor have gone 12/1 stoke and newcastle to go down.  Much bigger than bf for both teams esp newcastle (people are asking for under 9/1 for deecent money on bf)

Worst bet I have seen on here so far.......

Have you not seen our new signing?? Bojan might even get into the top 5 most goals scored this season. << you have heard that here 1st and can have that one for free.

I am a stoke fan myself.  Live in stone.  Assume you are local to me as well.  I wasn't putting it up as a bet.  I was just letting several of our regs who are big arbers that there was a decent opportunity there.  If you think 12/1 is poor value maybe you should get laying teh 10/1 people are queuing up for on betfair as we speak

Small world! so do I. north end up by langtrys. I hope he will give us a good season and keep injury free.

Apologise to any one in thread for taking exception to my fun post. I will keep personal opinions to myself in future.

Morning Alan.

No, keep thinking out loud, you'll learn plenty if you do. And you'll make money if you follow the regulars here. We don't all have the diplomatic skills of Dr Kissinger, but we all mean well.  

The Post by Nico did sound a little abrupt, but he apologised quickly & tried to explain what he was trying to convey.

The fact is, what he wrote was 100% correct - it was a FACT, not an opinion. It was, if you bet that way, a GUARANTEED profit.

As to following Fred generally, most of us Ice Creams or Ex Ice Creams all had a bit of a shock when Fred started. I'd been an ice-cream for 30 years, but Fred quicky taught my why, & now I'm a nitty winner with most of my Accounts closed or restricted.

The BIG lesson was a very hard one to grasp at first, as it was counter-intuitive, but it applies to EVERY bet Fred has ever placed.

I used to look for winners. Obvious really.

But it don't work like that. We must look for VALUE.

So, lets say that tonight, Man U are at home to Stoke City. We think Man U should win this with ease. And they probably will, we know that.  

But if the price on Stoke is big enough, & reps value, we will back Stoke City, even though we think they will most likely lose.

There is a price where anything becomes value.  

The biggest surprise to me early doors was to see Pro Punters say "Arsenal are 6/4  v Liverpool tonight, that's value, I'm, backing them". So I'd go back them.

An hour later, they'd post again. "Arsenal are now 5/4, thats way too short, I'm backing Liverpool now". And I'd think, WHAT?

Took a bit of getting used to that. But if you can identify VALUE, you'll win at Sports Betting. It's really that simple.

Read a preview by any pro punter & you'll always see "horse X can win this, but the price is too short. I prefer Horse Y, which is only slightly less likely to win, but twice the price".

VALUE VALUE VALUE.

Stick around, read & learn, ask any questions, & you'll be fine. But don't be thin-skinned, as you'll get a few bumps & bruises along the road.  

[hector62]

Cuevas won in straight sets.

[BigAdz]

Cuevas won in straight sets.

N1 Hector.

[TightEnd]

Should we have an interest in the Proper Cricket Test Match which starts shortly?

England won the tossy thing, & bat first.

India are 3/1, 15/8 the draw, & England 6/4.

I don't recall the last time England won a Proper Cricket match, but they are the jolly. Do these prices reflect reality?

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-india/3rd-test/winner

In-play, with England 25-0, India are now 5/1.

we were on india on wednesday

pitch isn't doing much, ishant is injured, no need to double up

[tikay]

Cuevas won in straight sets.

Top work, thanks Hector.

[tikay]

It tipped with rain just before the F1 GP began.

Carnage expected.

Hold on tight, this will get messy.

Hope everyone gets home safely.

[tikay]

Should we have an interest in the Proper Cricket Test Match which starts shortly?

England won the tossy thing, & bat first.

India are 3/1, 15/8 the draw, & England 6/4.

I don't recall the last time England won a Proper Cricket match, but they are the jolly. Do these prices reflect reality?

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-india/3rd-test/winner

In-play, with England 25-0, India are now 5/1.

we were on india on wednesday

pitch isn't doing much, ishant is injured, no need to double up

Sorry Rich, never realised.

[tikay]

Mardy spins on the first lap.

[tikay]

This Bottas lad has some sublime skills.

[sonour]

 

Cuevas won in straight sets.

Thank you Hector

[luther101]

Get in early     .....     Chompy to win (at least) one WSOP Omaha bracelet in 2015 - with the $50k HORSE event a racing cert.

The Fenland Fiend was spotted displaying 'mad skillz' in a 1/1 Omaha cash game at Gentings Luton last night. He totally bemused his opponents with his play - not least when asking for a chop whenever getting a pot heads up.

I managed to get a peek at some of the notes he was furiously scribbling:

'1) Sky 6 max  four carder - TIDMOF      ......      flirt outrageously with stunning TV presenters, and show one a real good time!' (Obv an invite to Tikay to share the marvels of marshland irrigation techniques in the St Neot's area).

2) Crush that Mixed Game Master, Tufty' (Weird one!!!  However I'm confident our Hero can overcome a squirrel famous only for road safety campaigns in the 1970s)

3) Triumphal Twitter draft; "Wicked Wheldon wonderfully wacks the WSOP! (could do with a smudging less modesty is my opinion)

I couldn't get any more 'inside info' before he flounced out of the arena clutching a £13.50 profit, head-butting the Latvian valet who had dared to block his path.


Thus Tighty, after such detailed surveillance, I recommend extremely heavy - win only - bets to be lavished on this selection next year, before the word gets out & prices tumble!

[Chompy]

+£7

Keep the losing days off the scoresheet, let the winning days take care of themselves. Omaha seems pretty easy tbf.

[TightEnd]

Fabulous grand prix that

three great drives, loved alonso holding on for so long in a dog of a car with no tyres. epic stuff