Tips for Tikay

[Bad Beat]

lol.


 They say 1mm at the track by the way.

[Doobs]

DODGEPOT
Pether's Moon is 13/8 in the 1.55 tomorrow, which is close to the Betfair price.  I like the horse, but Neil wrote something unflattering when we backed it at Ascot.   It also course and distance form, and finished close to Cavalryman last time.  The race before it was thrashed by Telescope having a rare good day. 

As a sop to Betting Emporium, I have allowed them to put a subtle subliminal message in this post.  I am sure we can ignore that and just go with the maths in this case.

DODGEPOT

Moving on, I am sure we can back Shifting Power in the 2.20 at 15/8.  He has good from with Australia and Kingman, so should be good enough.

still ok to do both of these with the WH offer?

I am entirely happy with Pether's Moon.  I don't think it is as much a rogue as Neil.  Problem with the other is you read Neil's stuff and you have doubts (think that is as much as I can say).   But it is best price with Hills and the price would have to be way out for it not to be value, so we should do that too.

I get into these tricky spots after reading Neil's stuff.  Yesterday I was going to put up Cavalryman, but read Neil's tip (probably better but unlucky) and then didn't feel I could say anything anymore.  

[TightEnd]

1.55 Pethers moon

2.30 shifting power

£25 each wh mobile, money back as free bet if 2nd

6/4, 6/4

[Bad Beat]

 I think those two bets are fine for the offer. I don't massively hate either of them.

[Nico29]

Mystery solved. Raining man is 8 miles away in Bognor. Scorcher man is at the track.

It does happen though.

Me and seven mates used to go every year, Limo from the Cotswolds. Beer from 9am etc.

My best mate had one particular year when it was a scorcher and as a fairly placid bloke stayed calm when a drunk lad spilt a whole pint over him after about the third race to much amusement from the rest of us. It then tipped down for ten minutes and as the only one that couldn't find a seat under the big brolly, he got soaked again. Hot weather returns, and our sticky hero drys out

Just as it was all forgotten, a scrap took place between the lads on the table next to us and they managed to fall into our table, knocking the umbrella in the direction of our hero, and it was like time stood still, as this big commercial umbrella slllllllowllllllllly fell towards him. He could see it coming but just couldn't duck out the way quick enough and dithering between moving and putting his pint down  managed to get soaked by the umbrella and his own pint as the umbrella knocked it out of his hand all over himself. Needless to say he got a bit angry, and started to chase one of the guys scraping who easily outran our 17 stone hero, to even more amusement.

Pure comedy. Yeah, I know, you had to be there, but great memories. GL today all

Nice story Adz. Made me lol.

[icles test]

Get the impression with pethers moon and indeed kingsgate native later on that they dont understand the point is to beat other horses. It never seems to run a bad race so the bet for coming second seems solid but doesnt pethers moon price mean the bet should be to take advantage on the win market for horses because pethers moon is a perennial bridesmaid?

[bobby1]

I suppose at least the 18 runners gives us time to debate Belgian Bill.  Horsey is against, Adz wary.  I always forgive one bad run as a rule, when if happens again the horse gets a squiggle in my head.  It could be an interesting debate.  Where does everyone stand?  They are animals, can get spooked, may just be having a bad day etc.

I don't think I can do this right, because I probably go from complete forgiveness first time, to never trusting them again when I see them do two things I don't like.

hi mate,

I'm a fan of BB but I wouldn't have this down as the nut best spot to play to it's strengths. Dance and Dance was early fav for this last year and had the 1 box and the thinking was it is a good draw but in truth for hold up horses I think it's a tough draw. The field will come around the first turn and all shuffle for positions and for a hold up horse it seems certain to be buried on the rail in the pack/towards the back early on. It's turn of foot on flatter tracks might not be the same on this track either if it does get the run of the race and finds the gaps.

Having said that I can see a scenario where it runs on thru the field if it does get the breaks but it just looks like one in the race that will deffo need some luck to show it's best form. I  like one at a bigger price in a similar spot tho tbh. If we get 5 places I might stick that up as a bet too.

cheers

[sonour]

First thought for the eneffelle season...

I'm intending to do a proper bit of work on the AFC East this weekend, with a view to proposing some bets. One that's struck me by surprise straight away is the Miami Finishing Position market that the red shouty man has.

Second: 6/4
Third: 2/1
Fourth: 4/1
First: 5/1

Now, we can obviously exclude divisional champs. The Patriots with Wilfork, Vereen and The Gronk back are a completely different prospect to 2013/14. They could win 12 games this season. Miami should be delighted with 8.

Jets and Bills have strengthened in the summer; the Dolphins haven't brought in the same level of new blood. Tannehill can't have much longer to go as the franchise QB, he has a roster devoid of experience (and, arguably, much talent) and the team doesn't have enough firepower against three strong defences twice to threaten at the top. The Jets have made some excellent signings and I can see them making the playoffs (mug comment, granted).

Miami's early schedule includes Kansas City (h), Oakland away and Green Bay at home, followed by a trip to Chicago. After eight weeks, they could very realistically be 2-5 (bye in week 5) and heaped in pressure.

It looks like a two horse race for third between Buffalo and Miami and 4/1 for it to be Buffalo pipping Miami seems crazy to me. Buffalo are 2/1 to finish third btw in the equivalent market with the same bookie.

Deep breath...

Recommend £50 on Miami to finish fourth in the AFC East at 4/1 with the red shouty man.





(Also, don't tell Flushy)

restricted, took what i could

Fourth 4/1
2014 AFC East
Singles - Miami Dolphins finishing position
1 line @ £12.50 per line
Total Stake £12.50
Potential Return £62.50
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000655

How much more would you like, Tighty ?

[Tal]

Moeen Ali won't be allowed to play for the Worcester Royals in the T20 quarter-final pyjama blast off cricket.

Bit daft. Shows just how bad the England spinner situation is. Also no good for Fred's bet.

[tikay]

DODGEPOT
Pether's Moon is 13/8 in the 1.55 tomorrow, which is close to the Betfair price.  I like the horse, but Neil wrote something unflattering when we backed it at Ascot.   It also course and distance form, and finished close to Cavalryman last time.  The race before it was thrashed by Telescope having a rare good day. 

As a sop to Betting Emporium, I have allowed them to put a subtle subliminal message in this post.  I am sure we can ignore that and just go with the maths in this case.

DODGEPOT

Moving on, I am sure we can back Shifting Power in the 2.20 at 15/8.  He has good from with Australia and Kingman, so should be good enough.

still ok to do both of these with the WH offer?

I am entirely happy with Pether's Moon.  I don't think it is as much a rogue as Neil.  Problem with the other is you read Neil's stuff and you have doubts (think that is as much as I can say).   But it is best price with Hills and the price would have to be way out for it not to be value, so we should do that too.

I get into these tricky spots after reading Neil's stuff.  Yesterday I was going to put up Cavalryman, but read Neil's tip (probably better but unlucky) and then didn't feel I could say anything anymore. 

Don't want to derail Fred now things are, at least on the surface, sort of duck-style, settled, but its just a common sense thing with BE stuff. As long as we are all sensible, reasonable & play the game there's no problem if, perchance, identical tips get floated. To date, as far as I can tell, nobody has been messing about. 

[TightEnd]

First thought for the eneffelle season...

I'm intending to do a proper bit of work on the AFC East this weekend, with a view to proposing some bets. One that's struck me by surprise straight away is the Miami Finishing Position market that the red shouty man has.

Second: 6/4
Third: 2/1
Fourth: 4/1
First: 5/1

Now, we can obviously exclude divisional champs. The Patriots with Wilfork, Vereen and The Gronk back are a completely different prospect to 2013/14. They could win 12 games this season. Miami should be delighted with 8.

Jets and Bills have strengthened in the summer; the Dolphins haven't brought in the same level of new blood. Tannehill can't have much longer to go as the franchise QB, he has a roster devoid of experience (and, arguably, much talent) and the team doesn't have enough firepower against three strong defences twice to threaten at the top. The Jets have made some excellent signings and I can see them making the playoffs (mug comment, granted).

Miami's early schedule includes Kansas City (h), Oakland away and Green Bay at home, followed by a trip to Chicago. After eight weeks, they could very realistically be 2-5 (bye in week 5) and heaped in pressure.

It looks like a two horse race for third between Buffalo and Miami and 4/1 for it to be Buffalo pipping Miami seems crazy to me. Buffalo are 2/1 to finish third btw in the equivalent market with the same bookie.

Deep breath...

Recommend £50 on Miami to finish fourth in the AFC East at 4/1 with the red shouty man.





(Also, don't tell Flushy)

restricted, took what i could

Fourth 4/1
2014 AFC East
Singles - Miami Dolphins finishing position
1 line @ £12.50 per line
Total Stake £12.50
Potential Return £62.50
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000655

How much more would you like, Tighty ?

the other £37.50 in theory. thanks

[Tal]

What are the max bets for things like this? Can they really take much money on divisional finishing positions? Being restricted implies they don't want much exposure.

[sonour]

First thought for the eneffelle season...

I'm intending to do a proper bit of work on the AFC East this weekend, with a view to proposing some bets. One that's struck me by surprise straight away is the Miami Finishing Position market that the red shouty man has.

Second: 6/4
Third: 2/1
Fourth: 4/1
First: 5/1

Now, we can obviously exclude divisional champs. The Patriots with Wilfork, Vereen and The Gronk back are a completely different prospect to 2013/14. They could win 12 games this season. Miami should be delighted with 8.

Jets and Bills have strengthened in the summer; the Dolphins haven't brought in the same level of new blood. Tannehill can't have much longer to go as the franchise QB, he has a roster devoid of experience (and, arguably, much talent) and the team doesn't have enough firepower against three strong defences twice to threaten at the top. The Jets have made some excellent signings and I can see them making the playoffs (mug comment, granted).

Miami's early schedule includes Kansas City (h), Oakland away and Green Bay at home, followed by a trip to Chicago. After eight weeks, they could very realistically be 2-5 (bye in week 5) and heaped in pressure.

It looks like a two horse race for third between Buffalo and Miami and 4/1 for it to be Buffalo pipping Miami seems crazy to me. Buffalo are 2/1 to finish third btw in the equivalent market with the same bookie.

Deep breath...

Recommend £50 on Miami to finish fourth in the AFC East at 4/1 with the red shouty man.





(Also, don't tell Flushy)

restricted, took what i could

Fourth 4/1
2014 AFC East
Singles - Miami Dolphins finishing position
1 line @ £12.50 per line
Total Stake £12.50
Potential Return £62.50
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000655

How much more would you like, Tighty ?

the other £37.50 in theory. thanks

Booked

[Bad Beat]

 Bollocks.

 Captain Cat horse box break down. This race is heading to 15 for sure.

[tikay]

First thought for the eneffelle season...

I'm intending to do a proper bit of work on the AFC East this weekend, with a view to proposing some bets. One that's struck me by surprise straight away is the Miami Finishing Position market that the red shouty man has.

Second: 6/4
Third: 2/1
Fourth: 4/1
First: 5/1

Now, we can obviously exclude divisional champs. The Patriots with Wilfork, Vereen and The Gronk back are a completely different prospect to 2013/14. They could win 12 games this season. Miami should be delighted with 8.

Jets and Bills have strengthened in the summer; the Dolphins haven't brought in the same level of new blood. Tannehill can't have much longer to go as the franchise QB, he has a roster devoid of experience (and, arguably, much talent) and the team doesn't have enough firepower against three strong defences twice to threaten at the top. The Jets have made some excellent signings and I can see them making the playoffs (mug comment, granted).

Miami's early schedule includes Kansas City (h), Oakland away and Green Bay at home, followed by a trip to Chicago. After eight weeks, they could very realistically be 2-5 (bye in week 5) and heaped in pressure.

It looks like a two horse race for third between Buffalo and Miami and 4/1 for it to be Buffalo pipping Miami seems crazy to me. Buffalo are 2/1 to finish third btw in the equivalent market with the same bookie.

Deep breath...

Recommend £50 on Miami to finish fourth in the AFC East at 4/1 with the red shouty man.





(Also, don't tell Flushy)

restricted, took what i could

Fourth 4/1
2014 AFC East
Singles - Miami Dolphins finishing position
1 line @ £12.50 per line
Total Stake £12.50
Potential Return £62.50
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000655

How much more would you like, Tighty ?

the other £37.50 in theory. thanks

Booked

Thanks Lisa.

Do I owe you anything for the July slate?