Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

July 2014 Figures

Closed bets: 141
Amount wagered: £3,140.28
Profit/loss: £456.46
ROI: 14.54%

Number of "sports" bet on: 14
Most popular:  Horses (30), Golf (29), Football (19).

Most and least profitable sports (based on monthly profit/loss) are:

Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
Golf   305.70   524.30   58.31   29
Darts 165.00   200.00   82.50   6
Horses 106.75   666.85   16.01   30

...

Tennis -32.42   250.00   -12.97   9
Gaelic Football -44.70   44.70   -100.00   2
Cycling -138.28   138.28   -100.00   18


Number of tipsters: 32 including 1 new tipster.


Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 3,714
Amount wagered: £114,746.43
Profit/loss: £4,023.35
ROI: 3.51%

Number of "sports" bet on: 32
Most popular: Football (936),  Horses(926), Golf (310), Cricket(237).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
[bFootball   2,115.23   29,285.34   7.22   926
Horses   1,664.71   30,277.28   5.50   936
Misc.   860.47   3,603.07   23.88   95[/b]
...
Formula1   -378.95   1,372.58   -27.61   64
Snooker   -383.00   1,118.00   -34.26   31
Golf   -787.56   8,347.64   -9.43   310


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=4


Total number of tipsters: 156


Number of different bookies/exchanges/agents: 43

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Bookie          Profit     Amt Bet   ROI     No.
BoyleSports      2,510.40   4,515.45   55.60   115
WilliamHill      1,341.39   19,860.66   6.75   649
Bet365      1,108.38   5,016.60   22.09   222
...
Coral      -460.74   7,116.20   -6.47   245
PaddyPower      -482.27   7,611.38   -6.34   355
BetFred      -880.38   8,694.17   -10.13   285


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=7


The archive of all bets prior to 2014 can be found here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdHVrekx6T0REUXVNOWw5YTVWa0pWZGc#gid=7

Thanks Vince.

Bumped to remind me to reply later as to a few things. Bit busy right now.

[Tal]

Bollocks.

 Captain Cat horse box break down. This race is heading to 15 for sure.

The internet is an incredible thing.

Google image search results for "cat horse"

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&site=webhp&tbm=isch&source=hp&ei=Yn7bU7SiL-vH7Aa-noGoAQ&q=cat+horse&oq=cat+horse&gs_l=mobile-gws-hp.3..0l5.1593.3295.0.3621.10.10.0.1.1.1.710.4185.3-1j4j2j1.8.0....0...1c.1.51.mobile-gws-hp..5.5.1988.3.099aAmbhluY

Probably my favourite:

[sonour]

First thought for the eneffelle season...

I'm intending to do a proper bit of work on the AFC East this weekend, with a view to proposing some bets. One that's struck me by surprise straight away is the Miami Finishing Position market that the red shouty man has.

Second: 6/4
Third: 2/1
Fourth: 4/1
First: 5/1

Now, we can obviously exclude divisional champs. The Patriots with Wilfork, Vereen and The Gronk back are a completely different prospect to 2013/14. They could win 12 games this season. Miami should be delighted with 8.

Jets and Bills have strengthened in the summer; the Dolphins haven't brought in the same level of new blood. Tannehill can't have much longer to go as the franchise QB, he has a roster devoid of experience (and, arguably, much talent) and the team doesn't have enough firepower against three strong defences twice to threaten at the top. The Jets have made some excellent signings and I can see them making the playoffs (mug comment, granted).

Miami's early schedule includes Kansas City (h), Oakland away and Green Bay at home, followed by a trip to Chicago. After eight weeks, they could very realistically be 2-5 (bye in week 5) and heaped in pressure.

It looks like a two horse race for third between Buffalo and Miami and 4/1 for it to be Buffalo pipping Miami seems crazy to me. Buffalo are 2/1 to finish third btw in the equivalent market with the same bookie.

Deep breath...

Recommend £50 on Miami to finish fourth in the AFC East at 4/1 with the red shouty man.





(Also, don't tell Flushy)

restricted, took what i could

Fourth 4/1
2014 AFC East
Singles - Miami Dolphins finishing position
1 line @ £12.50 per line
Total Stake £12.50
Potential Return £62.50
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000655

How much more would you like, Tighty ?

the other £37.50 in theory. thanks

Booked

Thanks Lisa.

Do I owe you anything for the July slate?

I don't think so.

[sonour]

First thought for the eneffelle season...

I'm intending to do a proper bit of work on the AFC East this weekend, with a view to proposing some bets. One that's struck me by surprise straight away is the Miami Finishing Position market that the red shouty man has.

Second: 6/4
Third: 2/1
Fourth: 4/1
First: 5/1

Now, we can obviously exclude divisional champs. The Patriots with Wilfork, Vereen and The Gronk back are a completely different prospect to 2013/14. They could win 12 games this season. Miami should be delighted with 8.

Jets and Bills have strengthened in the summer; the Dolphins haven't brought in the same level of new blood. Tannehill can't have much longer to go as the franchise QB, he has a roster devoid of experience (and, arguably, much talent) and the team doesn't have enough firepower against three strong defences twice to threaten at the top. The Jets have made some excellent signings and I can see them making the playoffs (mug comment, granted).

Miami's early schedule includes Kansas City (h), Oakland away and Green Bay at home, followed by a trip to Chicago. After eight weeks, they could very realistically be 2-5 (bye in week 5) and heaped in pressure.

It looks like a two horse race for third between Buffalo and Miami and 4/1 for it to be Buffalo pipping Miami seems crazy to me. Buffalo are 2/1 to finish third btw in the equivalent market with the same bookie.

Deep breath...

Recommend £50 on Miami to finish fourth in the AFC East at 4/1 with the red shouty man.





(Also, don't tell Flushy)

restricted, took what i could

Fourth 4/1
2014 AFC East
Singles - Miami Dolphins finishing position
1 line @ £12.50 per line
Total Stake £12.50
Potential Return £62.50
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000655

How much more would you like, Tighty ?

the other £37.50 in theory. thanks

Booked

Thanks Lisa.

Do I owe you anything for the July slate?

I don't think so.

Do I owe you anything ?

[ripple11]

Cricket T20 bet

A while ago Dubai suggested getting on a batsman that would bat higher up the order than predicted by the bookies.....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=54010.0

well this time, its same batsman, different team!

Maxwell is injured for Hampshire for Sundays quarter final. So the batting order MAY see Wheater bat 4 IMHO. He batted 3 on Thursday with no Maxwell, although this was a 50 over match not T20.

He's as low as 12/1 for top batsman...but 50/1 with eight88,  32reed, uni bet. This is definitely value.

Also Dawson is as low as 12/1 top bat with some..........but as high as 125/1 with Paddies ! and 100/1 with eight88.  Unlikely to bat lower than 7, this is also great value.

[Doobs]

Get the impression with pethers moon and indeed kingsgate native later on that they dont understand the point is to beat other horses. It never seems to run a bad race so the bet for coming second seems solid but doesnt pethers moon price mean the bet should be to take advantage on the win market for horses because pethers moon is a perennial bridesmaid?

I think the maths is so strong that we should do Pether's Moon anyway.  The horse would have to be an underlying 9/4 or so for it to be a bad bet at 6/4.

I have ridden horses precisely twice, and the last time was a long time ago, so this can probably be taken with a pinch of salt.  But last time I did it I was riding a horse that didn't really want to go past my mate's horse that was at the front.  This was explained to me that my horse recognised the other as the leader of the herd.  So I think some horses are natural followers.  I see this sometimes in races and I think saying the horse is ungenuine is probably the wrong description, some are just not natural leaders.  These types don't mind running as fast as they can so long as another is in front.  Others just don't want to go fast at all.  As I say this may all be bullshit, but it is how I see it.

I don't really think Pether's Moon is a natural follower type, he just seems to be catching others on good days, and seemed to be going through with his effort.  

[horseplayer]

thanks Ripple good info had the min on with aye aye aye


FWIW i really like HORSTED KEYNES in the baldy mile today. unexposed in many ways like Belgian Bill in that ran poorly last time but has shaped more than once like may need a mile. Thought it would be near fav in this, shame will have to wait to near the start now as looks like we may have 15

[Doobs]

thanks Ripple good info had the min on with aye aye aye


FWIW i really like HORSTED KEYNES in the baldy mile today. unexposed in many ways like Belgian Bill in that ran poorly last time but has shaped more than once like may need a mile. Thought it would be near fav in this, shame will have to wait to near the start now as looks like we may have 15

I think enough people have been negative on Belgian Bill that we should give it a miss even if somehow we get 16.  We should definitely be looking for bets if there are 16 though.

[BigAdz]

Oioi.

Just back from lunch to find Doobs is a horse whisperer after a race on Blackpool beach with his mate.

Made my day. Ty mate.

[icles test]

Get the impression with pethers moon and indeed kingsgate native later on that they dont understand the point is to beat other horses. It never seems to run a bad race so the bet for coming second seems solid but doesnt pethers moon price mean the bet should be to take advantage on the win market for horses because pethers moon is a perennial bridesmaid?

I think the maths is so strong that we should do Pether's Moon anyway.  The horse would have to be an underlying 9/4 or so for it to be a bad bet at 6/4.

I have ridden horses precisely twice, and the last time was a long time ago, so this can probably be taken with a pinch of salt.  But last time I did it I was riding a horse that didn't really want to go past my mate's horse that was at the front.  This was explained to me that my horse recognised the other as the leader of the herd.  So I think some horses are natural followers.  I see this sometimes in races and I think saying the horse is ungenuine is probably the wrong description, some are just not natural leaders.  These types don't mind running as fast as they can so long as another is in front.  Others just don't want to go fast at all.  As I say this may all be bullshit, but it is how I see it.

I don't really think Pether's Moon is a natural follower type, he just seems to be catching others on good days, and seemed to be going through with his effort.  

Just the way he seems to cruise up and for no reason find nothing and some of his place form doesnt work out. eg he gets beat the same distance by listed and group 2 winners alike. Im decent ahead betting on the horse as hes come up decent eachway a few times just find him a bit frustrating that he hasnt always converted. Guess hillstar coming out basically makes this 2nd money back an eachway bet, better then eachway odds.

cheers

[Kmac84]

Smashing this fav up in the opener. 

[Doobs]

Oioi.

Just back from lunch to find Doobs is a horse whisperer after a race on Blackpool beach with his mate.

Made my day. Ty mate.

Think race is overplaying it, have seen tortoises move quicker than those horses.

[horseplayer]

Pat Doobs rather than Dobbs?

[icles test]

n1 doobs. Think maybe he doesnt have a turn of foot but seemed genuine enough.

[tikay]

Get the impression with pethers moon and indeed kingsgate native later on that they dont understand the point is to beat other horses. It never seems to run a bad race so the bet for coming second seems solid but doesnt pethers moon price mean the bet should be to take advantage on the win market for horses because pethers moon is a perennial bridesmaid?

I think the maths is so strong that we should do Pether's Moon anyway.  The horse would have to be an underlying 9/4 or so for it to be a bad bet at 6/4.

I have ridden horses precisely twice, and the last time was a long time ago, so this can probably be taken with a pinch of salt.  But last time I did it I was riding a horse that didn't really want to go past my mate's horse that was at the front.  This was explained to me that my horse recognised the other as the leader of the herd.  So I think some horses are natural followers.  I see this sometimes in races and I think saying the horse is ungenuine is probably the wrong description, some are just not natural leaders.  These types don't mind running as fast as they can so long as another is in front.  Others just don't want to go fast at all.  As I say this may all be bullshit, but it is how I see it.

I don't really think Pether's Moon is a natural follower type, he just seems to be catching others on good days, and seemed to be going through with his effort.  

Well done Doobs, not sure how we missed that, lol.