Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

I noticed the subtle change in the SSN advert, where Jim White answers the 'phone. Went from "Harry! What have you got for me?" to "Hello? What have you got for me?"

Wonder if that was ironically due to a call from Arry.

[Teacake]

I know discussion on this gets emotive in some quarters

but thought this was interesting

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/08/27/take-the-ladbrokes-indyref-no-victory-with-turnout-under-80-bet/

"The best value punt, surely, for those who think independence will be defeated"

Basically slightly better than 8/13 for under 80% turnout doubled with No at 1/6?

I still think Yes over 42.5% at 10/11 with the same firm is the way to go I really can't see that line going shorter and will move towards mid 40s. The information I have is that Monday nights debate had a very marginal boost for Yes but any noticeable effect won't be seen in the polls until Monday.

This was pied at the time but line has moved to 44.5 within a few days.

[arbboy]

I know discussion on this gets emotive in some quarters

but thought this was interesting

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/08/27/take-the-ladbrokes-indyref-no-victory-with-turnout-under-80-bet/

"The best value punt, surely, for those who think independence will be defeated"

Basically slightly better than 8/13 for under 80% turnout doubled with No at 1/6?

I still think Yes over 42.5% at 10/11 with the same firm is the way to go I really can't see that line going shorter and will move towards mid 40s. The information I have is that Monday nights debate had a very marginal boost for Yes but any noticeable effect won't be seen in the polls until Monday.

This was pied at the time but line has moved to 44.5 within a few days.

This now shows what excellent value 45-50% is at 7/2.  If you backed under 44.5 10/11 and >50% at 9/2 with it bar the change and 0.5% rounding errors you have a 3 way market which comes to roughly 92%.   Lads have shortened it to 10/3 now from 7/2 but 10/3 45-50% is getting bigger and bigger value as the money comes for the yes vote.

[Chompy]

[edit] more nonsense

[Teacake]

I know discussion on this gets emotive in some quarters

but thought this was interesting

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/08/27/take-the-ladbrokes-indyref-no-victory-with-turnout-under-80-bet/

"The best value punt, surely, for those who think independence will be defeated"

Basically slightly better than 8/13 for under 80% turnout doubled with No at 1/6?

I still think Yes over 42.5% at 10/11 with the same firm is the way to go I really can't see that line going shorter and will move towards mid 40s. The information I have is that Monday nights debate had a very marginal boost for Yes but any noticeable effect won't be seen in the polls until Monday.

This was pied at the time but line has moved to 44.5 within a few days.

This now shows what excellent value 45-50% is at 7/2.  If you backed under 44.5 10/11 and >50% at 9/2 with it bar the change and 0.5% rounding errors you have a 3 way market which comes to roughly 92%.   Lads have shortened it to 10/3 now from 7/2 but 10/3 45-50% is getting bigger and bigger value as the money comes for the yes vote.

Yeah it's a great bet. The official polls should be treated with a great deal of caution, the number of people who have registered to vote for the first time from the poorest areas is believed to be at 180,000 and those who plan to vote who don't normally as high as half a million, this demographic doesn't register on normal polling models. Over 80% turnout looks likely, (this referendum is completely different to other votes and really has gripped the country as it should) and skews the base points and weightings of polling models further.

Horseys post yesterday made a lot of sense, the majority of Yes money is coming from Scotland and the No money from England making the Yes prices bigger than they should be.

[horseplayer]

nobody in the world can get on but pp have one of the bigger ricks ever

Defoe to stay at Toronto at 13/8 is a max of all maxes

[horseplayer]

5/6 now still a massive bet if anybody can get on (no)

If anyone managed the 13.8 or even 5/6 id appreciate £30quid if its spare

[Tal]

nobody in the world can get on but pp have one of the bigger ricks ever

Defoe to stay at Toronto at 13/8 is a max of all maxes

Is he not in London?

[horseplayer]

nobody in the world can get on but pp have one of the bigger ricks ever

Defoe to stay at Toronto at 13/8 is a max of all maxes

Is he not in London?

Yes he is also injured for 3 weeks and Toronto twitter links have suggested they are not going to and have rejected all bids

More importantly he is matched between 1.2 and 1.5 to stay within the last hour for decentish sums on betfair

Once again i have no idea were PP get these compilers from

[Ironside]

5/6 now still a massive bet if anybody can get on (no)

If anyone managed the 13.8 or even 5/6 id appreciate £30quid if its spare

skysports have in last hour said that its highly likely he might goto qpr if harry gets a bit enough envelope

[Tal]

Can't find the market.

Can only see "J Defoe next permanent club"

[TightEnd]

Leicester bid for Defoe. Tornto turned it down

QPR bid for Defoe. Toronto turned it down

Defoe wants to go to QPR though, and is trying to force it through

* summation of twitter based knowledge *

Jim White, over and out

[horseplayer]

I will go with the local journos on twitter in Toronto over Jim and his ramping gang

Click to see full-size image.

Thanks btw managed to get what i wanted at 5/6 eventually through someone else

[horseplayer]

Unlikely to see this on SSN tonight at Palace

[samurai]

7/2 with hills looks a good price on a yes vote in Scotland. Latest times/Sun poll shows a 48-42 split in favour of no. However that is a change from 52 -38 on the last poll by you gov. Additionally undecided voters appear to be heading mainly to yes.

Can't see this price lasting. 4.6 on betfair and the momentum with yes.