Tips for Tikay

[Tonibell]

Cheers. Top one's from an FT blog http://blogs.ft.com/off-message/2014/09/08/another-scottish-poll-another-boost-for-yes/. Bottom one's from Mr Shaddick's http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/09/03/could-we-be-heading-for-a-yes-landslide-in-the-indyref/.

[JoeBeevers]

Been talking to a good friend of mine who played pro football and recently played at conference level.

He knows that league well and likes Alfreton at home tomorrow night against Altrincham.

I know Alfreton is not the easiest place to go, especially in a mid week game and he says from experience Alfreton are always up for it against other part time teams.

The Altrincham lads are likely to have been working, then got a nasty trip across the Woodhead then down the M1, hardly ideal preparation especially when they are not getting results.

Alfreton have started very poorly but have signed 2 new centre forwards including Karl Hawley who will be a real threat at this level. They had 48% possession away at Barnet on Saturday, ended losing the game 2-1 but lead for a lot of the game and had a player sent off.

I've backed Alfreton at 7/4 and recommend £20 at that price.

We have Alan Alger doing non league football for us on Bettingemporium and he put this up early at 9/5. It's his biggest bet of the season so far for us. Maybe make it £40 for Fred although best price now 33/20. You can read Alan's write up for free here http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/54

i split the difference on this

trying on the exchange to get £30 above 7/4

Altrincham are favourites, as of now.

Who am I to question the expertise of these kind of folk, but have to say really surprised by this.  I had an interest in the Barnet game on Saturday.  Alfreton had 48% yes, but only 2 shots on target all game!  They've only scored 4 goals all season, and haven't won a game since March 2014 - a run of 15 games.

Shipping in 42 in total and over 3 per game this season (although Grimsby scored 7 of them)  All I'm sure have been noted and them some by those above.  At home they've let in 2 - 3 - 3 so far.

Altrincham come in to the game having won for the first time in 3, so will be boyed by that too.

As a result of all this, and the feeling is for Alfreton, would expect a bigger price that 9.5/7/4?

Alan is one of the best judges of non league football that I have ever known. I'll copy and paste some of what he says in his write up about this, if you want to read everything and his other write ups you will have to register though.

On Saturday he rec'd a decent bet Alfreton +2 at Barnet and a small bet at 9/1 Barnet to get beat. He told me that watching the match some people would have thought that their league positions were reversed (Barnet are currently top with 18 pts and Alfreton are bottom with 0).

He goes on to explain that this is what the oddsmakers are looking at and that they are missing out some important pieces of information.

I have had a double maximum (for me) on this tonight.

A welcome return to profit at the weekend as Alfreton Town managed to land the +2 handicap at Barnet. We were unfortunate not to scoop the big prize on the ‘match result’ market as they gave up a second-half lead in a 63rd minute incident that lead to the dismissal of Lathaniel Rowe-Turner. With ten men they succumbed to a late winner from Luisma Villa. It was a desperate result for boss Nicky Law, his return after a six-game ban the angle which gave us the edge in the game. A few non-league tipsters were advising the Barnet side of the handicap at -2 (and incredibly a couple of goals above). At least one of them missing this key piece of information. As pointed out in the weekend preview, Law is all about motivation and organisation and we profited from correctly anticipating that his charges would be far more robust without ‘supply teacher’ Russ O’Neill in sole charge...

...On Saturday I tipped a team that had lost all six games this season, this midweek I want to tip one that has lost their first seven. The same team! Once again bookmakers have taken Alfreton Town’s form on face value without factoring in their manager’s suspension. They’ve ignored Nicky Law’s return – which saw them improve to give leaders Barnet a real fright away from home on Saturday. A price of 9/5 for them to beat Altrincham is one that genuinely takes the breath away. In my previous role as an odds-compiler on this division for the league sponsor I was often up first with prices. I’d have had Alfreton (beaten only once at home by top-half clubs last season) around 5/4 for this fixture to 100%. While cases have been drummed home elsewhere to say Alfreton are a different team to the one that lost six opening games – let’s also focus on Altrincham. They are the only team to lose to Nuneaton (on my rankings now the worst team in the division) this season, in fact no other team has allowed Nuneaton to score this season. Altrincham’s only two wins coming at home to relegation favourites Dartford and an out-of-sorts Bristol Rovers in the second week of the campaign. It’s unfathomable that they are actually favourites in some places to win the game. This will be the first maximum bet of the season. I firmly believe the right side of this bet is any price down to and including 11/8, so there should be plenty of value to go around.

[david3103]

A lesson in how to fix poll outcomes by Sir Humphrey...

http://youtu.be/G0ZZJXw4MTA

[TightEnd]

i will put these down to arbboy

nothing to stop us changing the shape of the "book" henceforth

09/09/2014 14:22:24 BST   0000733   Single (Win)   1   £ 50.00   Scottish Independence Referendum   Yes Vote Percentage   45 - 50%   2/1 ladbrokes

UK / Scotland Independence Referendum 2014 / Majority Winner    Majority YES Vote    Back    40977191792    09-Sep-14
14:25    C    3.25    50.00 betfair


the shape is now as follows

Yes <45% -£150 (£50+£50+£50)

Yes 45-50% +£225  (£175+£100-£50)

Yes 50% +£7 (£107-£100) after betfair commission

 
a survation poll is out in the morning that is reputed to have yes with a majority, and in the last hour it has gone 3.05-3.1 on betfair

for illustrative purposes

another £50 on yes at 3.1 would make the book

Yes <45% -£200, Yes 45-50% +£175 and Yes +£107

[superwomble]

Been talking to a good friend of mine who played pro football and recently played at conference level.

He knows that league well and likes Alfreton at home tomorrow night against Altrincham.

I know Alfreton is not the easiest place to go, especially in a mid week game and he says from experience Alfreton are always up for it against other part time teams.

The Altrincham lads are likely to have been working, then got a nasty trip across the Woodhead then down the M1, hardly ideal preparation especially when they are not getting results.

Alfreton have started very poorly but have signed 2 new centre forwards including Karl Hawley who will be a real threat at this level. They had 48% possession away at Barnet on Saturday, ended losing the game 2-1 but lead for a lot of the game and had a player sent off.

I've backed Alfreton at 7/4 and recommend £20 at that price.

Hi Rick, understand if not but could you tell us the name of your source please?

[McGlashan]

 

Rupert Murdoch wouldn't use his position of power to do a thing like that would he?

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Hi, there. Long time listener, first time caller &c. (Thanks for those Battista vids above btw).
Might be stating the obvious but I think it's unsound equating probabilities implied by BF numbers with polling numbers and mixing them in a calculation. Generally it's unsound because the market price is already partly derived from poll standings  and more particularly in this case because a Sunday paper was always going to commission a poll showing that the horse race was 'neck and neck'. They've done it in this case by stripping out the Don't Knows which is only like to exacerbate the indyref equivalent of the Shy Tory problem. And while every paper has an interest in talking up the horse race, one has more of an interest than others.


Just putting a couple of negatives out there, one mathematical one not. Hope this is some help. 

Welcome aboard Mr Tonibell. I hope the choice of name was deliberate. No shortage of ice creams here.

Click to see full-size image.

[Rubbish2407]

Sorry, couldn't help myself. Anyone know what this is?

[arbboy]

Lithuania through to semis with 12 point win over Turkey.  Should face USA in semis.  Looks like unless Spain get upset in the other half of the draw that the bet will revolve around the 3rd place match for Lith.

[GlennDuskTillDawn]

Sorry, couldn't help myself. Anyone know what this is?

Muller Reus Corner. 

[maldini32]

Florenzi fgs ew with 3sixfive. 16/1 for those that can.

Looks like he will play instead of the injured marchisio. Conte's gonna stick with 352 and florenzi will play advanced of de  Rossi in midfield.

Also zaza looks like continuing upfront. last I checked.

Italy v Norway. On my phone

[superwomble]

Florenzi fgs ew with 3sixfive. 16/1 for those that can.

Looks like he will play instead of the injured marchisio. Conte's gonna stick with 352 and florenzi will play advanced of de  Rossi in midfield.

Also zaza looks like continuing upfront. last I checked.

Italy v Norway. On my phone

If Fred gets on I think it's better to do FGS and anytime instead of ew as anytime is 13/2.

[horseplayer]

Simon Church is starting for Wales

As he is playing he must be upfront

[horseplayer]

meant to ask this for a while, am i the only one whose posts show 20 minutes or so on blonde time as to real time?

gets kinda confusing sometimes

cheers

[DropTheHammer]

Florenzi starts in the middle and so does Zaza up top., thanks for the tip.