Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Kansas City Chief at Denver Broncos 9.25pm Sunday Sky Sports 2

DeMaryius Thomas is the Denver Broncos number one receiver, and a touchdown threat throughout any game. In a powerful offense, with the legendary Peyton Manning his quarterback, he scored 14 touchdowns last season, whilst gaining over 1400 receiving yards

In the first week of the new NFL season Thomas was disappointing by the standards expected. Against the Indianaplois Colts he had four receptions for 48 yards. This was only his fifth sub 50 yard receiving performance since December 2012

The performance was affected by two factors a) he was double covered and b) he dropped three passes. Double covering his threat is understandable for any defense but of course it opens up the field for his colleagues. The brilliant Tight End Julius Thomas scored three touchdowns instead. Playing an offense like this, the defense has to pick its poison. Manning is going to throw for a lot of yards, so who do you double cover?

This week the Broncos play divisional rivals the Kansas City Chiefs, who suffered a major injury in the first week loss to the Tennessee Titans when linebacker Derrick Johnson was lost for the season, one of two defensive starters out through injury for this game. Johnson would normally be one of those expected to cover Julius Thomas, and attention in the defensive game plan has to focus on Julius now

Demaryius Thomas' per-game averages in the last four games that followed sub-50-yard tallies are 6.25 receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown.In the previous 6 games he was held under 50 yds receiving from Peyton, he came back and scored or hit 100 yards the following week.Given that Thomas has averaged 107.8 yards in his last four games against Kansas City -- including three games of more than 100 yards -- it would be no surprise if he has a similar rebound performance Sunday.  It would be fairly assured if he was single covered, too

The Broncos are 13 point favourites for the game. The line was 7 point favourites a week ago! It should be high-scoring. DeMaryius Thomas has to be a strong candidate for the first touchdown at 15/2 or 7/1.

Especially he has to be backed to go over the receiving yard spread of 85.5 yards with Ladbrokes. This is better value than picking the Broncos -13 given the way the line has moved.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-at-denver-broncos/total-receiving-yds-demaryius-thomas

We were limited at Ladbrokes, to £27.50

I would happily go over any line under 100 yards

Event Information:    Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos - Player Props
NFL Player Props
2014-09-14 21:25:00
Market:    Receiving Yards - D Thomas
Selection:    Over @ 10/11
Handicap:    +85.5
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000736
Placed at:    10:29 14/09/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £27.50
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £27.50
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £27.50
   
   £52.50

Thanks Rich.

For those that can get on, Ladbrokes are WAY OOL on that.

PS - where the hell do you get all this stuff?

Demaryius Thomas' per-game averages in the last four games that followed sub-50-yard tallies are 6.25 receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown.In the previous 6 games he was held under 50 yds receiving from Peyton, he came back and scored or hit 100 yards the following week.Given that Thomas has averaged 107.8 yards in his last four games against Kansas City -- including three games of more than 100 yards

[superwomble]

Great report as always :-)

MOTD highlighted the Senderos incidents and there was one moment that Mario kicked out a bit so that looks promising for the bet.

Dover were dreadful. Macclesfield were there for the taking but our manager played a poor defensive team and didn't take the initiative. He needs to go, although Fred will be happy if he stays.

[Tal]

I posted the link to the full article on the nfl thread yesterday, but, whilst we're on the subject of fantastic wordsmithy on America's Game, here's an assessment of the Seattle Seahawks defence:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2195684-nfl-week-2-picks-seahawks-secrets-richardson-probes-and-more


Here are some scouting notes to help understand and cope with the Seahawks defense:

• No one is open. Your wide receivers aren’t open. Your tight ends aren’t open. If someone catches a pass, it’s a one-handed grab along the sideline with a defender breathing through his earhole. The only receivers who are open are the ones waiting for screen passes.

• Throwing a screen pass against the Seahawks defense is like throwing a Chicken McNugget to a school of piranhas.

• There are no “yards after catch” against the Seahawks defense. Physicists use the Bohr Radius (a0) as a handy subatomic unit of distance. A Bohr Radius is the most probable distance between a proton and electron in a hydrogen atom. The Seahawks measure their tackling in a0AC, and Pete Carroll gets snippy if they give up more than five.

• Kam Chancellor is like a strong safety and outside linebacker combined. Earl Thomas is a combination strong safety and free safety, with a little terrible punt returner mixed in. Brandon Mebane can play two tackle techniques at the same time. And Cliff Avril can injure two offensive players on one play without doing anything illegal. Do the math: You are playing 9-against-14.

• Chancellor is one of the NFL’s most underrated players. That is amazing, because he is a two-time Pro Bowler on a championship-winning defense, and everyone knows how awesome he is. He is the first player to be so underrated that he is so overrated that he is underrated. And you thought the Bohr Radius was confusing.

• Richard Sherman has not been mentioned yet, and that just motivates the crazy such-‘n’-such.

• If you are hoping for defensive penalties to save you, bad news: The Seahawks were not called for defensive holding at all during the Preseason of Yellow Sadness, and they were not called for holding or illegal contact at all during their Packers jolly-stomping. (There was one obvious pass interference). You are better off hoping for Marshawn Lynch to start speaking in iambic pentameter.

• Thomas is no longer the punt returner, so you should just punt on first down and hope for a muff. It was a bad idea anyway. Hand off a few times. Show a little pride

[TightEnd]

Kansas City Chief at Denver Broncos 9.25pm Sunday Sky Sports 2

DeMaryius Thomas is the Denver Broncos number one receiver, and a touchdown threat throughout any game. In a powerful offense, with the legendary Peyton Manning his quarterback, he scored 14 touchdowns last season, whilst gaining over 1400 receiving yards

In the first week of the new NFL season Thomas was disappointing by the standards expected. Against the Indianaplois Colts he had four receptions for 48 yards. This was only his fifth sub 50 yard receiving performance since December 2012

The performance was affected by two factors a) he was double covered and b) he dropped three passes. Double covering his threat is understandable for any defense but of course it opens up the field for his colleagues. The brilliant Tight End Julius Thomas scored three touchdowns instead. Playing an offense like this, the defense has to pick its poison. Manning is going to throw for a lot of yards, so who do you double cover?

This week the Broncos play divisional rivals the Kansas City Chiefs, who suffered a major injury in the first week loss to the Tennessee Titans when linebacker Derrick Johnson was lost for the season, one of two defensive starters out through injury for this game. Johnson would normally be one of those expected to cover Julius Thomas, and attention in the defensive game plan has to focus on Julius now

Demaryius Thomas' per-game averages in the last four games that followed sub-50-yard tallies are 6.25 receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown.In the previous 6 games he was held under 50 yds receiving from Peyton, he came back and scored or hit 100 yards the following week.Given that Thomas has averaged 107.8 yards in his last four games against Kansas City -- including three games of more than 100 yards -- it would be no surprise if he has a similar rebound performance Sunday.  It would be fairly assured if he was single covered, too

The Broncos are 13 point favourites for the game. The line was 7 point favourites a week ago! It should be high-scoring. DeMaryius Thomas has to be a strong candidate for the first touchdown at 15/2 or 7/1.

Especially he has to be backed to go over the receiving yard spread of 85.5 yards with Ladbrokes. This is better value than picking the Broncos -13 given the way the line has moved.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-at-denver-broncos/total-receiving-yds-demaryius-thomas

We were limited at Ladbrokes, to £27.50

I would happily go over any line under 100 yards

Event Information:    Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos - Player Props
NFL Player Props
2014-09-14 21:25:00
Market:    Receiving Yards - D Thomas
Selection:    Over @ 10/11
Handicap:    +85.5
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000736
Placed at:    10:29 14/09/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £27.50
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £27.50
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £27.50
   
   £52.50

Thanks Rich.

For those that can get on, Ladbrokes are WAY OOL on that.

PS - where the hell do you get all this stuff?

Demaryius Thomas' per-game averages in the last four games that followed sub-50-yard tallies are 6.25 receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown.In the previous 6 games he was held under 50 yds receiving from Peyton, he came back and scored or hit 100 yards the following week.Given that Thomas has averaged 107.8 yards in his last four games against Kansas City -- including three games of more than 100 yards

i watch the games through the week, via a subscription to NFL game pass, and have a couple of sources to watch coaches film too

note down performances, players to watch which i then put into spreadsheets for when the match-ups look favourable, research their historic performances via sites like Pro Football focus, then compile a short-list for sub-markets each week with my ideas for what the lines should be as prices only tend to go up 48 hours beforehand

obviously watch for injuries in the upcoming oppositions, waiver pick ups etc and try to find an edge

I wrote this one three days ago, waiting for the market to go up, hoping someone would price it below 90

Some of the sub-markets get less knocked into shape than the team point spreads.

No guarantees, like last week the 49ers were so far ahead they went very conservative and the Frank Gore bet was scuppered, but assuming "normal" shaped games i think i'll beat player markets over a season

[nirvana]

4 polls out yesterday, and the poll of polls came out as Yes 49-No 51 with four days of campaigning on blonde threads to go.

Made me chuckle

[geoff123]

Aussie Rules

 Port Adelaides win over Fremantle highlighted the qualities that they have nurtured over the last 3 seasons. 3 years ago they were a lower middle order team going nowhere. Then in comes a new chairman, new coach with a youthful policy and a new fitness coach (previously at Liverpool). Last season they were known for scoring heavily in the final quarter due to their fitness but maybe a little naive at winning against top teams. This season has seen them progress in all areas, and last seasons team would have not have won yesterday. This is a young fearless team who play hard till the final whistle and never give up. However the next game is the semi final against Hawthorn who along with Sydney Swans are the stand out teams this season. The odds this week are Hawthorn 1.37 and Port Adelaide 3.55 but once again i feel the match will be much closer than the odds suggest. Port yesterday showed nerve and courage in the second half to win and will carry forward great momentum and self belief.So another 20 quid might be worth a gamble.

[Doobs]

4 polls out yesterday, and the poll of polls came out as Yes 49-No 51 with four days of campaigning on blonde threads to go.

Made me chuckle

£10 Karun Chandhok unplaced in Formula E Beijing. We did well though, if I had been up half an hour earlier yesterday we would have backed a driver to win who was actually in Germany for the DTM.

Full of gems today

[TightEnd]

Aussie Rules

 Port Adelaides win over Fremantle highlighted the qualities that they have nurtured over the last 3 seasons. 3 years ago they were a lower middle order team going nowhere. Then in comes a new chairman, new coach with a youthful policy and a new fitness coach (previously at Liverpool). Last season they were known for scoring heavily in the final quarter due to their fitness but maybe a little naive at winning against top teams. This season has seen them progress in all areas, and last seasons team would have not have won yesterday. This is a young fearless team who play hard till the final whistle and never give up. However the next game is the semi final against Hawthorn who along with Sydney Swans are the stand out teams this season. The odds this week are Hawthorn 1.37 and Port Adelaide 3.55 but once again i feel the match will be much closer than the odds suggest. Port yesterday showed nerve and courage in the second half to win and will carry forward great momentum and self belief.So another 20 quid might be worth a gamble.

We'll press, yes

sorted out your email yesterday i hope?

Back    Your
Odds    Your
Stake    Your
Profit
Port Adelaide Power    3.55    £20.00    £51.00
Ref: 4233126019 Bet placed: 11:14 14-Sep-14

[Doobs]

Bit of a wild one this.

At the start of the year there was a bit of talk that the best 3 year old in France was Ectot.  He put a string of good results together at 2 winning one of the better French 2 year old races in the Criterium International at the end.

Immediately after this race he was installed as the favourite for the French 2000 Guineas.



After that he had a "minor setback", so missed the French 2000 Gunieas.  The horse that finished 2nd to him that day went on and won the French 2000 Guineas.  You could probably argue it wasn't much of a race in hindsight, so that wouldn't be as meaningful as normal.  I have waited a long time for him to hit the racetrack, as the minor setback seems to have lasted all summer and he is eventually coming out to race today in the Prix Neil at 1.30.

Whilst he has been away Arc Favourites have come and gone and none of them has had a perfect campaign.  Treve has been beaten twice, Taghrooda stopped looking as awesome at York, Australia was beaten yesterday.

Our horse is favourite for the Prix Neil today, which used to have a very good record for Arc winners 10 or so years ago.  There haven't been so many recently, but that is probably just a bit of negative variance to counter the postive variance at the start of the millenium.

It is also good to get a summer break in if you want to win the Arc, and it is hard to argue that many horses have had a better break than ours.

On the flip side he has never gone beyond 8 furlongs, but that is likely down to the break he had.  He ran in mile races as a 2 year old on soft ground and didn't have an issue with staying, and he looks like he wants further in the video above.

Anyway it is just a hunch and he is top priced 25/1 with Hills (and a few others), and it beats Betfair.  We have a free bet to use?  It needs to be on before 1.30 if we are going to back it.  After the Prix Neil the price is likely to look terrible or very good.

Finally, here he looks pretty smart at 2 (2 of the horses behind won listed races subsequently and another won a group 3).




 

[TightEnd]

A Dark horse? perfect for a free bet

05 Oct 2014 - 5th Oct 2014 - Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - Outright

Ectot @ 25/1

Stake : £25.00
Estimated Returns : £
625.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001097/F

Free bet redeemed

[tikay]

I posted the link to the full article on the nfl thread yesterday, but, whilst we're on the subject of fantastic wordsmithy on America's Game, here's an assessment of the Seattle Seahawks defence:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2195684-nfl-week-2-picks-seahawks-secrets-richardson-probes-and-more


Here are some scouting notes to help understand and cope with the Seahawks defense:

• No one is open. Your wide receivers aren’t open. Your tight ends aren’t open. If someone catches a pass, it’s a one-handed grab along the sideline with a defender breathing through his earhole. The only receivers who are open are the ones waiting for screen passes.

• Throwing a screen pass against the Seahawks defense is like throwing a Chicken McNugget to a school of piranhas.

• There are no “yards after catch” against the Seahawks defense. Physicists use the Bohr Radius (a0) as a handy subatomic unit of distance. A Bohr Radius is the most probable distance between a proton and electron in a hydrogen atom. The Seahawks measure their tackling in a0AC, and Pete Carroll gets snippy if they give up more than five.

• Kam Chancellor is like a strong safety and outside linebacker combined. Earl Thomas is a combination strong safety and free safety, with a little terrible punt returner mixed in. Brandon Mebane can play two tackle techniques at the same time. And Cliff Avril can injure two offensive players on one play without doing anything illegal. Do the math: You are playing 9-against-14.

• Chancellor is one of the NFL’s most underrated players. That is amazing, because he is a two-time Pro Bowler on a championship-winning defense, and everyone knows how awesome he is. He is the first player to be so underrated that he is so overrated that he is underrated. And you thought the Bohr Radius was confusing.

• Richard Sherman has not been mentioned yet, and that just motivates the crazy such-‘n’-such.

• If you are hoping for defensive penalties to save you, bad news: The Seahawks were not called for defensive holding at all during the Preseason of Yellow Sadness, and they were not called for holding or illegal contact at all during their Packers jolly-stomping. (There was one obvious pass interference). You are better off hoping for Marshawn Lynch to start speaking in iambic pentameter.

• Thomas is no longer the punt returner, so you should just punt on first down and hope for a muff. It was a bad idea anyway. Hand off a few times. Show a little pride

Good Lord, how good is that? Every line a winner. Wonderful writing.

Oddly, I researched Marshawn Lynch last week for some reason, so even that one made sense to me.

Some dude is Marshawn.

[redarmi]

Kansas City Chief at Denver Broncos 9.25pm Sunday Sky Sports 2

DeMaryius Thomas is the Denver Broncos number one receiver, and a touchdown threat throughout any game. In a powerful offense, with the legendary Peyton Manning his quarterback, he scored 14 touchdowns last season, whilst gaining over 1400 receiving yards

In the first week of the new NFL season Thomas was disappointing by the standards expected. Against the Indianaplois Colts he had four receptions for 48 yards. This was only his fifth sub 50 yard receiving performance since December 2012

The performance was affected by two factors a) he was double covered and b) he dropped three passes. Double covering his threat is understandable for any defense but of course it opens up the field for his colleagues. The brilliant Tight End Julius Thomas scored three touchdowns instead. Playing an offense like this, the defense has to pick its poison. Manning is going to throw for a lot of yards, so who do you double cover?

This week the Broncos play divisional rivals the Kansas City Chiefs, who suffered a major injury in the first week loss to the Tennessee Titans when linebacker Derrick Johnson was lost for the season, one of two defensive starters out through injury for this game. Johnson would normally be one of those expected to cover Julius Thomas, and attention in the defensive game plan has to focus on Julius now

Demaryius Thomas' per-game averages in the last four games that followed sub-50-yard tallies are 6.25 receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown.In the previous 6 games he was held under 50 yds receiving from Peyton, he came back and scored or hit 100 yards the following week.Given that Thomas has averaged 107.8 yards in his last four games against Kansas City -- including three games of more than 100 yards -- it would be no surprise if he has a similar rebound performance Sunday.  It would be fairly assured if he was single covered, too

The Broncos are 13 point favourites for the game. The line was 7 point favourites a week ago! It should be high-scoring. DeMaryius Thomas has to be a strong candidate for the first touchdown at 15/2 or 7/1.

Especially he has to be backed to go over the receiving yard spread of 85.5 yards with Ladbrokes. This is better value than picking the Broncos -13 given the way the line has moved.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-at-denver-broncos/total-receiving-yds-demaryius-thomas

We were limited at Ladbrokes, to £27.50

I would happily go over any line under 100 yards

Event Information:    Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos - Player Props
NFL Player Props
2014-09-14 21:25:00
Market:    Receiving Yards - D Thomas
Selection:    Over @ 10/11
Handicap:    +85.5
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000736
Placed at:    10:29 14/09/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £27.50
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £27.50
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £27.50
   
   £52.50

Agree with all of this.  15/2 and 7/1 Demaryius Thomas is badly wrong to score the first TD.  They books seem to overreacted to the fact that Julius Thomas scored 3 TD's last week but this overlooks the fact that on their first drive alone Manning targeted Demaryius three times in the end zone and using a meaure that I use statistically he had more opportunities to score a TD than any other player in the NFL last week.  Added to that Manning is  QB that likes to keep his receivers happy with TD's and he shares them around so the fact that Julius got three last week means the others will probably get more targets this week.  If I was an odds compiler I would put him in at 9/2 and go 4/1 even if a mug bet it.

[Rubbish2407]

Cardiff Blues play Glasgow this afternoon and Laddies have Scrum half Lewis Jones at 40/1 first try scorer and Lloyd Williams at 33's. Seeing as Jones is starting and Williams is on the bench I think on principle we should have a fiver. I can't get on with Sadbrokes but might take a walk to the nearest shop before dinner. He's also 8/1 anytime with Lloyd Williams at 13/2 which I would have a tenner on. He's as low as 9/2 with most firms.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

Last weeks tactic of backing the underdog playing at home narrowly failed, thought it was going to eclipse Hull KR v Wigan at one stage, so this week I will try the opposite approach.

Wasps host Northampton today and I think Northampton or Saracens will be crowned  champions. Northampton's performance against Gloucester last week was the best by a long way. Solid defence and potent attack. I thought the handicap would have been 9 points today but we can get on at 4. Points are easier to come by at the moment as the weather is decent and the other fact that I like is that Wasps biggest attacking threat, Christian Wade, is out.

Suggest £22 Northampton -4 @ 10/11 with Ladbrokes.

[TightEnd]

Morning Mr T.

Last weeks tactic of backing the underdog playing at home narrowly failed, thought it was going to eclipse Hull KR v Wigan at one stage, so this week I will try the opposite approach.

Wasps host Northampton today and I think Northampton or Saracens will be crowned  champions. Northampton's performance against Gloucester last week was the best by a long way. Solid defence and potent attack. I thought the handicap would have been 9 points today but we can get on at 4. Points are easier to come by at the moment as the weather is decent and the other fact that I like is that Wasps biggest attacking threat, Christian Wade, is out.

Suggest £22 Northampton -4 @ 10/11 with Ladbrokes.

Selection
10/11 - Northampton

Event
Wasps v Northampton Aviva Premiership

Market
Handicap betting

 
Your bets (1)
 
Single - Northampton -4

1 line at £22.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £22.00
Potential Return: £42.00
Time: 14/09/14 12:23
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000737