Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Beardsley would be an absolutely awful appointment, so yeah, decent chance of it happening, 50/1 is value.

Agree Ray, I cannot think of a worse potential appointment than PB, even though as a player, he was quite magnificent, & "all heart". Reminds me of Stuart Pearce in many ways - great, great, footballer, but zero people or Management skills. I'm sure he'd lift them for the honeymoon period, but he's not a thinker from what I've seen.

I'm not saying it is not a value bet though - that's a different thing altogether.

What's that old expression about insanity being doing the same thing again and again and expecting different results?


(In before "Daniel Levy")

[theprawnidentity]

As far as old sayings go, I would think that one is relatively recent.

[Tal]

As far as old sayings go, I would think that one is relatively recent.

One of those misattributed jobbies, yup.

Permission to replace "old" with "oft-trotted"?

[tikay]

What WERE they thinking? (part 93).


For those with an interest in either cycling, or women's sport (pay attention Mere & "AsianBabes Bobby1"), here is the official outfit that the Columbia Ladies Cycling Team are now wearing.

[horseplayer]

The sun is very bright down on the South Coast this morning

Looked at that pic a few times (ahem) now and still cant fathom whether they are semi naked or not

Expect fred to be busy!

[tikay]

The sun is very bright down on the South Coast this morning

Looked at that pic a few times (ahem) now and still cant fathom whether they are semi naked or not

Expect fred to be busy!

It's the beige part that is causing the problem, John. beige.

Make it almost any other hue, & it'd be just fine.

The little bump thing does not help, either. I suppose that is where they keep their sandwiches.  

PS - 3 day Fred Ban for the first "3-2-6" Post, 14 day Ban if it it includes "7".

[horseplayer]

Meant to post this the other day

http://birdiebank.com/markbroadie-strokesgained-golfstats-pgatour/

Some interesting for me extracts

"And one story in the book concerns renown coach Sean Foley who’s the coach of Tiger Woods, Hunter Mahan, but the story is about his other student, Justin Rose. And when Sean asked Justin Rose about how good of a short game he had, or how good a wedge player he is, Justin replied that he thought he was pretty good, but he had you know a lot of room for improvement. And what Sean Foley showed Justin Rose was the strokes gained report where in fact, that year, he was the best wedge player in the world. He was number one in strokes gained in the short game, and that was a surprise to Justin. And that allowed him basically to face these types of wedge shots with more confidence than he had before."


"If Tiger Woods is, was average at putting, the short game, and in driving, just based on his approach shots he would be in the top 10 golfers career-wise on the PGA tour, which is just remarkable."





well worth a read, long but interesting

[horseplayer]

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/sep/15/rio-ferdinand-david-moyes-tactics-manchester-united?CMP=twt_gu

[simonnatur]

Stumbled across possibly the biggest let down on the internet for Arbboy...
http://arbtalk.co.uk/

[BigAdz]

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/sep/15/rio-ferdinand-david-moyes-tactics-manchester-united?CMP=twt_gu

Just had to suffer an hour in the car with the Father in Law and he was telling me about an extract where Rio explains why they all hated Moyes.

Apparently SAF used to treat the boys on a Friday night by allowing them a plate of chips each.

First thing Moyes did was put a stop to it, so this lead to insta hatred amongst the grown up men in the changing room, and the barriers went up.

As soon as he went, Rio asked Giggs if they could have their chips again and he agreed.

What a life eh?


Disclaimer; this was told to me by my piss taking Father in Law, so it may not be true at all. I like to think it is though.

[BigAdz]

Stumbled across possibly the biggest let down on the internet for Arbboy...
http://arbtalk.co.uk/

Arboretums probably more interesting than Arbitraging. Can't say either set the pulse racing.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £324.34

Outstanding Bets £4490.15

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=29

A loss of £102 yesterday

Profit of £35, the USA beat Serbia 129-92 to retain the Basketball world cup. Team USA has now won four consecutive gold medals in international basketball tournaments — a feat no country had ever accomplished before — dating back to the 2008 Summer Olympics

Click to see full-size image.

- -£20, Kyle Irving was named MVP not Harden. think we were close though. Irving finished with 26 points and four assists while Harden had 23.

- £55. Demaryius Thomas. He had 62 receiving yards at half time, he'd had a 50 yard reception chalked off for a penalty....job almost done, 28 yards in the second half please. Then managed to go the whole second half without a reception as the Chiefs dominated possession to little effect. Another very frustrating bet, Sub-markets!

- £30 Malabar, unplaced at the Curragh

- £22 Northampton -4. Wasps beat them 20-16 with a tremendous defensive display to record their first win over Northampton since 2007.

Click to see full-size image.

- £10 Yates unplaced in the Vuelta king of the mountains


ongoing positions

In the NFL last night it was a good week for our season long team bets, less so for the player bets

- The Packers beat the Jets 31-24 from 21-3 down. This was a slightly fortunate one. Jets QB Geno Smith has come on loads in his second season and driving towards the end needing a touchdown to tie threw a beautiful 50 yard touchdown pass.

Click to see full-size image.

But wait, the referees are conferring? The play is brought back, the Jets offensive co-ordinator has called "time out" just before the play. Only head coaches and players are allowed to call time out, but the time out stands.....play it again...They never got another chance.  

- The Chargers turned over the Seahawks 30-21, and look a very very good team. going to be tough to beat Denver to the division for us, but a great result

Click to see full-size image.

- The Dolphins looked poor in losing to the resurgent Buffalo Bills. we have them to finish 4th in the AFC East, and that should have chances

- We have the Bengals to concede the least points and their defense looked magnificent restricting the potentially powerful Atlanta Falcons offense to 10 points

- I don't mention it much, the bet has rather been stymied by injuries, but the Rams (to win the NFC West at 12-1 bet) beat the Buccanneers 19-17 behind third string quarterback Austin Davis. Defensively, and in the running game, the Rams are very under-rated. Highly doubtful they will win the division without a quarterback but a win is a win

We got a bit lucky in this game too, the Buccs were driving at the end two points down. Mike Evans makes a catch for the Buccs but is injured, Bucs out of timeouts, requires 10 second runoff the clock, this ends the the game.

- Players. One of our bets for most rushing yards is Jamaal Charles who exited the game against the Broncos early with an ankle, never to return. He has an MRItoday and if forced to miss extended playing time that will be that for the bet. Oe of a number of high profile injuries in the first two weeks of the season

Click to see full-size image.

- As mentioned above Matt Ryan of the Falcons, our most passing yards bet, struggled against the Bengals. 231 yards this week

- Aaron Rodgers the comeback player bet finally got into his stride midway through week 2 with 346 yards and 3 touchdowns



away from the NFL

- The Baltimore Orioles came through for us again, with a walk off 3-2 win against the Yankees. This lowers their "magic number" of wins required to secure the division to 3. In the four game series against the Yankees the Orioles won 3 out of 4 to help us massively in our hopes of winning two big bets

Click to see full-size image.

- The Yankees now need to win 12 of 14 to prevent our bet from winning

- The AL Central position is looking less promising, the Royals lost (again) and the Tgers won (again) to take the Tgers 1.5 games ahead in the division with  14 games to go

away from US Sports

- Treve disappointed in her Arc trial, a correspondent reported " Treve visibly ill at ease on fast going, like a clockwork mouse to post, untypically sluggish in early stages then hung right"

- Ectot, on a 25/1 early yesterday, won the comeback race and with the Arc market shaken up is now 8/1 for the race early next month



- Rooney scored for the Gaalacticos, his second of the season and probably fighting for 2nd in the golden boot race along with everyone else behind Diego Costa



- In the CLT20 qualifiers Lahore lost their second game. top two through, a win in the final game needed for Lahore

Click to see full-size image.

[horseplayer]

Glad i backed Costa under goals line....

Looking good that one

[tikay]

Bit of a wild one this.

At the start of the year there was a bit of talk that the best 3 year old in France was Ectot.  He put a string of good results together at 2 winning one of the better French 2 year old races in the Criterium International at the end.

Immediately after this race he was installed as the favourite for the French 2000 Guineas.



After that he had a "minor setback", so missed the French 2000 Gunieas.  The horse that finished 2nd to him that day went on and won the French 2000 Guineas.  You could probably argue it wasn't much of a race in hindsight, so that wouldn't be as meaningful as normal.  I have waited a long time for him to hit the racetrack, as the minor setback seems to have lasted all summer and he is eventually coming out to race today in the Prix Neil at 1.30.

Whilst he has been away Arc Favourites have come and gone and none of them has had a perfect campaign.  Treve has been beaten twice, Taghrooda stopped looking as awesome at York, Australia was beaten yesterday.

Our horse is favourite for the Prix Neil today, which used to have a very good record for Arc winners 10 or so years ago.  There haven't been so many recently, but that is probably just a bit of negative variance to counter the postive variance at the start of the millenium.

It is also good to get a summer break in if you want to win the Arc, and it is hard to argue that many horses have had a better break than ours.

On the flip side he has never gone beyond 8 furlongs, but that is likely down to the break he had.  He ran in mile races as a 2 year old on soft ground and didn't have an issue with staying, and he looks like he wants further in the video above.

Anyway it is just a hunch and he is top priced 25/1 with Hills (and a few others), and it beats Betfair.  We have a free bet to use?  It needs to be on before 1.30 if we are going to back it.  After the Prix Neil the price is likely to look terrible or very good.

Finally, here he looks pretty smart at 2 (2 of the horses behind won listed races subsequently and another won a group 3).




 

Wowzer.

Tighty's DR reminded me of this.

Awesome, thank you.

[tikay]

We got a bit lucky in this game too, the Buccs were driving at the end two points down. Mike Evans makes a catch for the Buccs but is injured, Bucs out of timeouts, requires 10 second runoff the clock, this ends the the game.

Can someone explain that, in English, please?