Tips for Tikay

[BorntoBubble]

WH Mobile offer on Newmarket today.

2.55 Ivawood 4/6
3.25 Lucida 13/8
4:00 Estidhkaar 5/4

I would recommend for Tikay £25 each with money back if 2nd.  

[BorntoBubble]

Seems to be laods of offers about today, if anyone sees any boosts/offers i would be grateful if they could be posted here or racing thread as im gonna be a bit busy this afternoon but dont want to miss out!

[Rubbish2407]

Rugby's European Champions cup starts tomorrow

the successor to the Heineken cup

20 teams, not 24, with a lot of the Pro 12 also rans not able to qualify this time round

5 groups, winners and three best runners up through the quarters

Toulon going for three titles in a row, this time without the shoo-in for sports personality of the year, Jonny Wlkinson


With the best will in the world, the Welsh and Scottish teams aren't going to the final stages of this

For England Leicester are a shadow of previous years, rebuilding and injury hit. Bath developing but the challenge should come from Northampton and Saracens

Leinster, Ulster and Munster are always competitive

The French teams are the key to deciphering this, in large part because they don't operate in a salary cap environment and can hoard talent. Even Sarcens, who manage to work round the salary cap to an extent, don't have the depth the French teams can put out when the season is at its height

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/european-champions-cup/winner


looking for value for a run at a price.

Toulouse are four-time champions but have lost five of their nine French top-flight games and only climbed out of the bottom two by beating Toulon at the weekend.

If they click, they have one of the best squads in the competition

 Maxime Medard, Vincent Clerc, Florian Fritz, Gael Fickou, Yoann Huget and Luke McAlister or Toby Flood at fly-half in the backs

forwards such as Imanol Harinordoquy, Louis Picamoles,Thierry Dusautoir and Yoann Maestri

Toulouse have the biggest playing budget for many seasons not just within France but in Europe too


What i like about them is two-fold

a) their price, 20-1 each way rated 4th of the 6th French teams. This is a side routinely priced in the top few in the market but not this season because of short term form

b) their group

the groups are shown at http://www.epcrugby.com/europeanrugbychampionscup/pools/index.php


remember winner only, plus 3 best others

a group containing Leicester, Toulon, Ulster and Scarlets is horrendous

two of the groups are comparatively easy. Northampton's and Toulouse's


for Toulouse, Bath, Montpellier and Glasgow is almost as good as it comes (Northampton also, but at 7-1 look short)

before Hector reminds me, the CESMs can travel poorly, so a second french team in the pool is good.


Recommendation £15 e/w Toulouse at 20-1 coral, betvictor, betfred

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/european-champions-cup/winner


-

Top try scorer

a very competitve heat with great finishers like North, Ashton, Habana, Nalaga at the head of the market

Very nearly scooped in this last year, Nalaga finishing second to Ashton

only offered in one place

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/european-champions-cup/top-tryscorer

for very small stakes only, but if Toulouse are a price as a team, in a softer group then both of these are value

Gael Fickou 40-1

Maxime Medard 100-1

Fickou is only 20, but really one to watch. Sublime skills, only getting better and surrounded by talent to create chances

Recommend £5 e/w on both Ladbrokes. It's correlated of course with the team doing well.

--

Toulouse begin their campaign at home to Montpellier Sunday lunchtime

Wn that (Montpellier 4th in the french top 14) and we are in business

Wow.

You do realise that Racing Metro are theoretically 1 win from being second in the Top 14 and have already beaten Toulon and Toulouse this season and the Ospreys are top of the Pro 12? Northampton's form is hardly sterling either, beating three of the bottom four and losing to Wasps.

I certainly wouldn't call Northampton's group easy and think that statement is misleading to say the least. Guess we'll see by Xmas.

[TightEnd]

Northampton's group is definitely comparatively easier. it is a group you can see two qualifying from.

avoid munster, leinster and ulster and get ospreys/treviso? take that any time in a European competition

same applies to toulouse, drawing glasgow

[TightEnd]

WH Mobile offer on Newmarket today.

2.55 Ivawood 4/6
3.25 Lucida 13/8
4:00 Estidhkaar 5/4

I would recommend for Tikay £25 each with money back if 2nd. 

was out when you put these up

16-1 16-1 22-1 so far on tacky ground with a faster strip up the rail, and we have two seconds.

Pulchinella ran well i thought

we'll watch rather than throw some £25's at it, i think (which is BigAdz's point from eariler)

(everyone else can now safely back the jollies in the next two)

[TightEnd]

Good call on together forever earlier Mr test.

[icles test]

Good call on together forever earlier Mr test.

cheers

[Marky147]

Shame I missed that, because I hadn't had a bet in the race, and would have chucked a tenner on for a sweat.

Good shout, icles!

[doubleup]

I think it is worth waiting till pacts are formed and we get an idea of what the left actually plan on doing.  As far as I can tell RIC are going to maintain it grass-roots movement by campaigning alongside all pro indy partners.  The areas in which RIC were heavily represented did best with the YES vote so would expect there to be pressure put on Labour particularly in Glasgow/West Dumbartonshire and North Lanarkshire. 

Not sure if the seats will go to the SNP  or if all groups can come together and let the SNP stand unopposed as has been suggested by Tommy Sheridan. 

Labour For Indy are at the moment not going to be regstering as a political party however, I feel there is the possibility of them standing maybe one or two people independently, possibly Allan Grogan who has left his position within LFI as convener.  LFI are for my money the best chance the left have of moving existing Labour lifers out of power. 

I am not so sure the SNP will attack Westminister electeions with the same sort of vigour as they have in previous years, although I can see the benefit in doing so.  I'd want to wait until after the party conference in November before committing money to a bet. 

If I were to take a position right now from what you have mentioned above Ironside I would take a chance on the 11 - 16 seats. 

What's the max number of seats they can win? Is it 30 like the same number of regions in the yes/no vote?

Had a bit of a look at the 2010 election results.  The SNP are 2nd in 25 seats but the difference in votes is more than 10% in all of them (eg winner 45% of votes SNP 35%).  In all but 8 seats the difference is more than 25%.

Here is a breakdown of how far they are behind in all the seats

10.3   13.8   15.4   19.6   21.5   22.2   23   24.4   26.5   28.5   29
   31.6   34.5   34.7   34.9   36.9   38.5   40.6   41.2   41.5   42.9
   44.7   46.2   50.2   54.2

So there would have to be some huge swings to even get to 10 seats.

[icles test]

Shame I missed that, because I hadn't had a bet in the race, and would have chucked a tenner on for a sweat.

Good shout, icles!

Should have put it in racing thread aswell

[Doobs]

WH Mobile offer on Newmarket today.

2.55 Ivawood 4/6
3.25 Lucida 13/8
4:00 Estidhkaar 5/4

I would recommend for Tikay £25 each with money back if 2nd. 

was out when you put these up

16-1 16-1 22-1 so far on tacky ground with a faster strip up the rail, and we have two seconds.

Pulchinella ran well i thought

we'll watch rather than throw some £25's at it, i think (which is BigAdz's point from eariler)

(everyone else can now safely back the jollies in the next two)

I would normally agree with Adz at the end of the season and look for each ways, but there is probably a bit of recency bias at work, after the favourites were turned over today.  Cirrus Des Aigles has drifted a fair bit and clearly loves the ground.  Ignore the form, he won last time.

Suggest £25 win with hills mobile at the best price 13/8.

I think this could be a great each way race too, but I want to see all 9 go (Free Eagle is a doubt, and even though connections have said he can go on the ground, Al Kazeem at least is a doubt).  If we get 8 and quarter first 3, Noble Misson would be a bet at 5/1+, and am hoping for a bit better than 20/1 to back that old rogue* Pethers Moon.

Don't know what to make of the Leading Light race, he can't love the ground so will probably just give it a miss for now even if he is best price.  Should really have a look for an each way horse if he runs.

* FWIW think the horse is fine and Even Neil seems to have switched on this one.

[TightEnd]

Neil has written the race up for tomorrow. Will pop it up in the morning and dovetail his thoughts with yours...

[BigAdz]

To be honest my comment was more aimed at the two year olds.

Older horses we have more info on and know more about the number and type of races they handle well. The two year old we don't.

It was about the only thing I got right today though, even CM jumped like a stag!

[Doobs]

Neil has written the race up for tomorrow. Will pop it up in the morning and dovetail his thoughts with yours...

kind of hoping you are talking about the long distance race, as I think there should be a bet in that but can't see it.

[TightEnd]

Neil's champions stakes thoughts are up (free to read, no need to register)

http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/44