Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

Troy Deeney is back from injury now getting a run out as sub on Saturday - looks big at 50-1 with Victor to be top scorer.  He's on 3, Assombo on 9, Martin on 8.  The each way at 1/4 for top 4 places looks a decent runner.  Will always play as captain, takes pens, rarely injured and in a team which should score a bundle of goals.  Has scored 20+ in both the last two seasons,

Think we should have a small each way dabble.  £10 ew or something.  Unless he gets injured again, I think it's a good chance he finishes in the top 4.  33-1 and shorter elsewhere.
 

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £106.05

Outstanding Bets £4046.26

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

A profit of £70 yesterday

- Bautista Agut was beaten in the final of APT Moscow 4 and 4 by Cilic but nevertheless a £45 each way return from 20-1 each way at half odds

Click to see full-size image.

- Julio Jones finished under his 95 yard receiving quote for Atlanta against Baltimore for a profit of £25

Click to see full-size image.

ongoing positions

Stoke City climbed into the top ten, where we need them to finish by beating Swansea 2-1



Handicap bet Liverpool climbed to 5th/13 points with a late late show against QPR. Well Dunne.



In rugby Union Toulouse started their ERCC campaign well with a 30-23 victory over Montpellier, who are above them in the league table so a creditable win. Winger Huget scored two tries

Click to see full-size image.

All three of our warblers made it through week 2 of the X-Factor eliminations. As I mentioned last night to general tumbleweed one category, the girls, is already heads up and we have one of the two remaining contestants at 7/4



Thom Top three made it through Strictly



NFL, the usual monday rundown of ante post positions

The Packers, conference and superbowl bet, won their 4th in a row with a 38-17 victory over Carolina with Aaron Rodgers in great form. He went 19-of-22 for 255 yards and three touchdowns. His 154.5 passer rating was just a tick off the perfect rating of 158.3. He is definitely in the running for Comeback player of the year but faces stiff competition from an unlikely source, the Linebacker of the team with the best record in the NFL Rolando McClain is playing lights out, and is coming back from being cut and retirement

 

NFC West bet Chargers had a key loss at home to the Chiefs 23-20 and with Denver beating the 49ers on SNF a key game is on Thursday when San Diego visit Denver a game behind in the division



The Dolphins pulled off an upset beating the Bears in Chicago to go 3-3 on the season. We'll need a recovery from the Jets for Miami to finish bottom of the division

Click to see full-size image.

Amongst players Kelvin Benjamin scored another touchdown for the Panthers, but probably lost ground in the Offensive rookie of the year race to ante-post favourite Sammy Watkins who scored two touchdowns for Buffalo



Behind that injury hit offensive line that we targetted in the Julio Jones unders bet Matt Ryan put up a respectable 228 passing yards for Atlanta but that bet is in real trouble due to the lack of protection. As one talking head opined to camera "The Falcons offensive line is so, so, so bad." which is not what you need when you want a stable pocket to throw lots of passing yards from

For now 16-1 each way bet Ryan remains second in passing yards in the league

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=false&conference=null&statisticCategory=PASSING&season=2014&seasonType=REG&experience=&tabSeq=0&qualified=false&Submit=Go

The Jamaal Charles top rushing bet is flickering gently after an excellent performance against San Dego, but he, and everyone else, are miles behind Demarco Murray of the team with the best record in the NFL who created NFL history by being the first running back to open a season with seven successive 100 yard rushing games. Charles rushed 22 times for 95 yards and a touchdown and became the Chiefs all time leading rusher   

Click to see full-size image.

The Eagles were on a bye week and fell behind the best team in the NFL in the NFC East

The Steelers play tonight against the Texans and really need to pull out a win to staty in contention with the Ravens in the AFC North

[TightEnd]

Evening Mr T.

Sadly Bautista-Agut lost in the final. We did, however, make more money by backing him e/w than we would have done if we had backed Cilic to win at the outset as he was under 2-1.

In next weeks tournament at Basel I think we should support David Goffin. He is playing superbly over the last 2 months and he has by far the easiest half of the draw. His main hurdle could be Raonic but until he shows a return to form I will continue to oppose him.

Suggest £10 e/w @ 25-1 with betfred.

I got advance notice of this and placed what i could last night

We were restricted to £6.65 e/w 1/2 1,2 at Betfred

[horseplayer]

[horseplayer]

There were lots of penalties given at the weekend

https://mtc.cdn.vine.co/r/videos/551314D5521135314629589966848_22e5d2f7983.5.1.8313067717782355885.mp4?versionId=mPCNS3EwH_awZvvOdJMnK48vwCuzPjIK

But not that one

[TightEnd]

Troy Deeney is back from injury now getting a run out as sub on Saturday - looks big at 50-1 with Victor to be top scorer.  He's on 3, Assombo on 9, Martin on 8.  The each way at 1/4 for top 4 places looks a decent runner.  Will always play as captain, takes pens, rarely injured and in a team which should score a bundle of goals.  Has scored 20+ in both the last two seasons,

Think we should have a small each way dabble.  £10 ew or something.  Unless he gets injured again, I think it's a good chance he finishes in the top 4.  33-1 and shorter elsewhere.
 

More reasons to follow Watford (if you had told me that a year and a half ago...)

He signed a new contract did he? so only small January window risk?

 Top Goalscorer - 2014/15 Troy Deeney (EW) (Outright - Outright) Odds: 50/1 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  645.00

e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4

[horseplayer]

Poor arry

https://vine.co/v/ObnItEBIduq

[TightEnd]

advice please

we have this bet

1-Jan   Ladbrokes Hannon Jnr to beat Hannon Snr's 2013 UK winners   >235 winners   2/1   100   

currently Hannon has 195 winners, and i assume the season for this bet ends in November?

http://www1.skysports.com/racing/statistics/flat-trainers/season

does it have any chance of winning or should it be written off?

[Chompy]

Troy Deeney is back from injury now getting a run out as sub on Saturday - looks big at 50-1 with Victor to be top scorer.  He's on 3, Assombo on 9, Martin on 8.  The each way at 1/4 for top 4 places looks a decent runner.  Will always play as captain, takes pens, rarely injured and in a team which should score a bundle of goals.  Has scored 20+ in both the last two seasons,

Think we should have a small each way dabble.  £10 ew or something.  Unless he gets injured again, I think it's a good chance he finishes in the top 4.  33-1 and shorter elsewhere.

Think this is a cracking bet and worth more than a tenspot each-way.

[TightEnd]

I have written a preview of the world series which begins tomorrow night if anybody is interested



RECOMMENDATIONS

San Francisco Giants to win at Evens William Hill

Number of Games in series: Seven, 2-1 William Hill

This is set to be a very close series between the Royals, who have not appeared in the World Series since 1985, and the Giants who have won two of the last four.

Both teams are in red-hot form and have spent the post-season as underdogs. They both controlled their respective divisions for a time in the regular season, only to fall behind the pre-season favorites late on. Both qualified for the play-offs as wild cards. Both dominated in the divisional and championship rounds without home field advantage. They enter the World Series with impressive postseason streaks intact.

For Kansas City, they’ve won an MLB record eight straight games to begin the postseason. For San Francisco, it’s nine straight wins in postseason series.

SCHEDULE

Kauffman Stadium will host Game 1 on Tuesday night.

Game 1: Tuesday at Kansas City, 8:07 p.m. ET
Game 2: Wednesday at Kansas City, 8:07 p.m. ET
Game 3: Friday at San Francisco, 8:07 p.m. ET
Game 4: Saturday at San Francisco, 8:07 p.m. ET
Game 5:* Sunday at San Francisco, 8:07 p.m. ET
Game 6:* Tuesday, Oct. 28 at Kansas City, 8:07 p.m. ET
Game 7:* Wednesday, Oct 29 at Kansas City, 8:07 p.m. ET
* if necessary

PREVIOUSLY

The Royals have swept their way through the playoffs, and they also own a sweep of the Giants this season. The Royals took all three from the visiting Giants back in early August outscoring them 16-6. That series came right in the middle of Kansas City’s 14-2 stretch that temporarily propelled them into the AL Central lead.

PITCHING

Game 1:  Madison Bumgarner (2-1, 1.42) vs. James Shields (1-0, 5.63)
Game 2: Jake Peavy (1-0, 1.86) vs. Yordano Ventura (0-0, 4.85)
Game 3: TBD vs. Tim Hudson (0-0, 3.29)
Game 4: TBD vs. Ryan Vogelsong (0-0, 5.19)
Game 5: Shields vs. Bumgarner
Game 6: TBD
Game 7: TBD

(postseason stats)

Bumgarner comes in riding a 26 2/3 scoreless innings streak on the road in the postseason. He’ll be on full rest coming into Game 1, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him come back on short rest if need be in this series. Veterans Hudson and Peavy have done an excellent job supplementing the rotation with Matt Cain injured and Tim Lincecum banished to the bullpen. The Giants are in good shape, and workhorse Yusmeiro Petit is available should one of the aforementioned struggle.

On the other side, Kansas City’s bullpen is its strength, but its impact in the series will be dependent on the rotation’s performance. Even though the Royals have won all three of Shields’ postseason starts, he’s looked vulnerable, allowing three home runs and 10 earned runs in 16 innings. His career postseason ERA is 5.16 in 50 1/3 innings. If that doesn’t turn around, it will put some extra pressure on the 22-year-old Ventura and a rotation likely to be filled out by veterans Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie

RECOMMENDATION

Although the Royals’ hitters have got somewhat hotter in the post-season this is a team built around their pitching bullpen, batting speed and defense in the outfield.

The Giants, winners of two of the last four World Series, have a key advantage of experience in this upcoming series with two appearances on baseball’s biggest stage since 2010. Yet they are marginal underdogs here, probably because they have (potentially) four games away and three at home. William Hill’s even money for them to take the series is value in the outrights

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/world-series/winner

With both teams matching up well, and in great form, it could very well be a very close series and a seven game series, available at 2-1 is an interesting bet too

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/world-series/total-number-of-games

[horseplayer]

Really really like the Deeney bet

If i could get 50's i would be having a bet, agree with Chompy think we should be having a lot more on

[tikay]

I have written a preview of the world series which begins tomorrow night if anybody is interested



RECOMMENDATIONS

San Francisco Giants to win at Evens William Hill

Number of Games in series: Seven, 2-1 William Hill

This is set to be a very close series between the Royals, who have not appeared in the World Series since 1985, and the Giants who have won two of the last four.

Both teams are in red-hot form and have spent the post-season as underdogs. They both controlled their respective divisions for a time in the regular season, only to fall behind the pre-season favorites late on. Both qualified for the play-offs as wild cards. Both dominated in the divisional and championship rounds without home field advantage. They enter the World Series with impressive postseason streaks intact.

For Kansas City, they’ve won an MLB record eight straight games to begin the postseason. For San Francisco, it’s nine straight wins in postseason series.

SCHEDULE

Kauffman Stadium will host Game 1 on Tuesday night.

Game 1: Tuesday at Kansas City, 8:07 p.m. ET
Game 2: Wednesday at Kansas City, 8:07 p.m. ET
Game 3: Friday at San Francisco, 8:07 p.m. ET
Game 4: Saturday at San Francisco, 8:07 p.m. ET
Game 5:* Sunday at San Francisco, 8:07 p.m. ET
Game 6:* Tuesday, Oct. 28 at Kansas City, 8:07 p.m. ET
Game 7:* Wednesday, Oct 29 at Kansas City, 8:07 p.m. ET
* if necessary

PREVIOUSLY

The Royals have swept their way through the playoffs, and they also own a sweep of the Giants this season. The Royals took all three from the visiting Giants back in early August outscoring them 16-6. That series came right in the middle of Kansas City’s 14-2 stretch that temporarily propelled them into the AL Central lead.

PITCHING

Game 1:  Madison Bumgarner (2-1, 1.42) vs. James Shields (1-0, 5.63)
Game 2: Jake Peavy (1-0, 1.86) vs. Yordano Ventura (0-0, 4.85)
Game 3: TBD vs. Tim Hudson (0-0, 3.29)
Game 4: TBD vs. Ryan Vogelsong (0-0, 5.19)
Game 5: Shields vs. Bumgarner
Game 6: TBD
Game 7: TBD

(postseason stats)

Bumgarner comes in riding a 26 2/3 scoreless innings streak on the road in the postseason. He’ll be on full rest coming into Game 1, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him come back on short rest if need be in this series. Veterans Hudson and Peavy have done an excellent job supplementing the rotation with Matt Cain injured and Tim Lincecum banished to the bullpen. The Giants are in good shape, and workhorse Yusmeiro Petit is available should one of the aforementioned struggle.

On the other side, Kansas City’s bullpen is its strength, but its impact in the series will be dependent on the rotation’s performance. Even though the Royals have won all three of Shields’ postseason starts, he’s looked vulnerable, allowing three home runs and 10 earned runs in 16 innings. His career postseason ERA is 5.16 in 50 1/3 innings. If that doesn’t turn around, it will put some extra pressure on the 22-year-old Ventura and a rotation likely to be filled out by veterans Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie

RECOMMENDATION

Although the Royals’ hitters have got somewhat hotter in the post-season this is a team built around their pitching bullpen, batting speed and defense in the outfield.

The Giants, winners of two of the last four World Series, have a key advantage of experience in this upcoming series with two appearances on baseball’s biggest stage since 2010. Yet they are marginal underdogs here, probably because they have (potentially) four games away and three at home. William Hill’s even money for them to take the series is value in the outrights

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/world-series/winner

With both teams matching up well, and in great form, it could very well be a very close series and a seven game series, available at 2-1 is an interesting bet too

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/world-series/total-number-of-games

Can you get on for Fred, please, Rich?

As a bonus, it'd be great to sweat a World Series, with alll those Daily Reports to look forward to.

[tikay]

Troy Deeney is back from injury now getting a run out as sub on Saturday - looks big at 50-1 with Victor to be top scorer.  He's on 3, Assombo on 9, Martin on 8.  The each way at 1/4 for top 4 places looks a decent runner.  Will always play as captain, takes pens, rarely injured and in a team which should score a bundle of goals.  Has scored 20+ in both the last two seasons,

Think we should have a small each way dabble.  £10 ew or something.  Unless he gets injured again, I think it's a good chance he finishes in the top 4.  33-1 and shorter elsewhere.

Think this is a cracking bet and worth more than a tenspot each-way.

£12.50 each way then?

[Chompy]

I would honestly go for the absolute max on this one, £150 EW at 50-1 if we can get it. But somehow doubt we would. Especially as the BMU boys seem to have taken the market off the website!

I was toying with the idea of backing Conor Washington again at the same price in L1, despite Eioieon Doyle sitting on 14 already, but this is an incred spot. There's a lot of the season left and Deeney is the main man in a prolific team chasing promotion. All in!

[TightEnd]

I would honestly go for the absolute max on this one, £150 EW at 50-1 if we can get it. But somehow doubt we would. Especially as the BMU boys seem to have taken the market off the website!

I was toying with the idea of backing Conor Washington again at the same price in L1, despite Eioieon Doyle sitting on 14 already, but this is an incred spot. There's a lot of the season left and Deeney is the main man in a prolific team chasing promotion. All in!

its not quite as simple as that

Vydra is a proper striker at this level, its not simply a case that all the service will be to Deeney.

of course its a very good idea though

Anyway, they cut to 40-1 and i doubled up at that price, tried for more but no dice

Top Goalscorer - 2014/15 Troy Deeney (EW) (Outright - Outright) Odds: 40/1 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  520.00