Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Probably the price I find most bamboozling is the Brighton one.  Who would back them at 6/4 tonight?

Seems very odd, maybe some of our other football experts, or Chompy, have a view?

No personal view on the game, but i believe Brighton are popular with the market/syndicates due to metrics such as a very good shots attempted/conceded ratio that indicates that they are much better than the results show.

this is true, but they don't score goals

a classic metrics v results team (Bournemouth are too, but score goals so the two correlate)

[Shrimper1]

Probably the price I find most bamboozling is the Brighton one.  Who would back them at 6/4 tonight?

Seems very odd, maybe some of our other football experts, or Chompy, have a view?

No personal view on the game, but i believe Brighton are popular with the market/syndicates due to metrics such as a very good shots attempted/conceded ratio that indicates that they are much better than the results show.

this is true, but they don't score goals

a classic metrics v results team (Bournemouth are too, but score goals so the two correlate)

Is it not fair to say that the reason they are not scoring goals is simply down to bad luck/short term variance and that this shot data implies that they are in fact a 'decent team' and when luck evens itself out they will scroring plenty of goals and moving up the table?

Just playing devils advocate and there are of course other factors as to why a team with good shot data may be doing poorly, poor keeper, poor strikers, propensity to shoot from range, behind for longer periods so more likely to be pressing and thus shooting more.

I think it a fascinating subject, and perhaps it was just me being unaware but never seemed to hear much about shot data until a couple of years ago when Liverpool were getting backed in the market every single week while everyone bar the syndcates seemed to be laying them and the team were not winning. The reason they were getting backed i believe was due to their impressive shot data. Now most places i read talk about this metric.

Intuitively it feels like there may be an angle being against these teams but then again these big boys are usually right and know a million times more than i, so vey unlikely to be making too many mistakes.

Would love to know other people's thoughts.

[horseplayer]

GBI Racing ‏@gbiracing  6m6 minutes ago
Ryan Moore has confirmed he won't be riding again in Britain this year. Congratulations to Richard Hughes who retains the Jockeys Title


pay pay!

[horseplayer]

let it go 'arry

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/oct/21/harry-redknapp-adel-taarabt-three-stone-overweight-tonsillitis?CMP=twt_gu

[TightEnd]

Probably the price I find most bamboozling is the Brighton one.  Who would back them at 6/4 tonight?

Seems very odd, maybe some of our other football experts, or Chompy, have a view?

No personal view on the game, but i believe Brighton are popular with the market/syndicates due to metrics such as a very good shots attempted/conceded ratio that indicates that they are much better than the results show.

this is true, but they don't score goals

a classic metrics v results team (Bournemouth are too, but score goals so the two correlate)

Is it not fair to say that the reason they are not scoring goals is simply down to bad luck/short term variance and that this shot data implies that they are in fact a 'decent team' and when luck evens itself out they will scroring plenty of goals and moving up the table?

Just playing devils advocate and there are of course other factors as to why a team with good shot data may be doing poorly, poor keeper, poor strikers, propensity to shoot from range, behind for longer periods so more likely to be pressing and thus shooting more.

I think it a fascinating subject, and perhaps it was just me being unaware but never seemed to hear much about shot data until a couple of years ago when Liverpool were getting backed in the market every single week while everyone bar the syndcates seemed to be laying them and the team were not winning. The reason they were getting backed i believe was due to their impressive shot data. Now most places i read talk about this metric.

Intuitively it feels like there may be an angle being against these teams but then again these big boys are usually right and know a million times more than i, so vey unlikely to be making too many mistakes.

Would love to know other people's thoughts.

this is a problem that goes back nearly 60 league games now, in which they have scored 66 goals and more or less coincides with Poyet leaving

They have scored 11 goals in 12 league games this year (only Bolton and Blackpool worse). Not even reinvesting some Ulloa money into Baldock has changed the theme much

Last year 55 in the league (7th worst goalscorers, finishing 6th because they only conceded 40 a fantastic effort). Ulloa was 14 of them, no one else above 5

really solid at the back, play nice stuff, but not many goals through the team, not even from wide, attacking midfield, centre back..nowhere

the season before they were in the play offs, having scored 69


Personally, i thought Huddersfield at nearly 2/1 were a huge price for tonight, but I am a bit of a Chris Powell fanboy

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/huddersfield-v-brighton/winner

[TightEnd]

i haven't got time to go through them all but this last weekend

home to middlesborough

16 shots, 13 off target

62% possession

lose 2-1

you can see why they'll show up on stats betting radars, but iirc this is a consistent theme

http://www.seagulls.co.uk/fixtures-results/match-report/index.aspx?matchid=3734191

[jakally]

Brighton should probably be slight favourites on stats, but the goals record is going way beyond a short-term variance issue.
Not a bet for me, but if I was going to have one it would be Huddersfield - improved morale, new-ish manager, and (maybe) weather in their favour, versus possible negatives in Brighton camp. Wouldn't put too much on it though.

[TightEnd]

the two games before that

away at watford

44% possession, 12 shots, 9 off target...score 1 goal



home to cardiff

26 shots!! 18 off target

62% possession

one goal

[Marky147]

i haven't got time to go through them all but this last weekend

home to middlesborough

16 shots, 13 off target

62% possession

lose 2-1

you can see why they'll show up on stats betting radars, but iirc this is a consistent theme

http://www.seagulls.co.uk/fixtures-results/match-report/index.aspx?matchid=3734191

Was hoping they would turn Boro over on Saturday, for purely selfish reasons...

[TheDazzler]

Probably the price I find most bamboozling is the Brighton one.  Who would back them at 6/4 tonight?

Seems very odd, maybe some of our other football experts, or Chompy, have a view?

No personal view on the game, but i believe Brighton are popular with the market/syndicates due to metrics such as a very good shots attempted/conceded ratio that indicates that they are much better than the results show.

this is true, but they don't score goals

a classic metrics v results team (Bournemouth are too, but score goals so the two correlate)

Is it not fair to say that the reason they are not scoring goals is simply down to bad luck/short term variance and that this shot data implies that they are in fact a 'decent team' and when luck evens itself out they will scroring plenty of goals and moving up the table?

Just playing devils advocate and there are of course other factors as to why a team with good shot data may be doing poorly, poor keeper, poor strikers, propensity to shoot from range, behind for longer periods so more likely to be pressing and thus shooting more.

I think it a fascinating subject, and perhaps it was just me being unaware but never seemed to hear much about shot data until a couple of years ago when Liverpool were getting backed in the market every single week while everyone bar the syndcates seemed to be laying them and the team were not winning. The reason they were getting backed i believe was due to their impressive shot data. Now most places i read talk about this metric.

Intuitively it feels like there may be an angle being against these teams but then again these big boys are usually right and know a million times more than i, so vey unlikely to be making too many mistakes.

Would love to know other people's thoughts.

Horsie put up a link on the Arsenal thread on this subject;

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/oct/17/arsenal-place-trust-arsene-wenger-army-statdna-data-analysts?CMP=twt_gu

And then another one on the Pool site regarding keepers;

http://statsbomb.com/2014/10/goalkeepers-how-repeatable-are-shot-saving-performances/

I replied saying that I think we're still in the early days on this stat analysis for football. 2 years ago, I think the stats were probably not as valuable as today and in another 2 years, they will be better again.
Personally I think the raw 'shots taken/shots on target' stat is not hugely valuable until you can measure the quality of them. That seems to be slowly happening.

[rfgqqabc]

I'd bet a lot of money Bloom and his army of statisticians are way ahead of both the articles published above. I'd eat my hat if they were using shots taken/shots on target as a meaningful stat on its own. I'm fairly sure they will have tracking for the placement of shots in the highest leagues. Not sure how they would do it on in League 2, but they probably struggle to get a bet there anyway.

[arbboy]

I'd bet a lot of money Bloom and his army of statisticians are way ahead of both the articles published above. I'd eat my hat if they were using shots taken/shots on target as a meaningful stat on its own. I'm fairly sure they will have tracking for the placement of shots in the highest leagues. Not sure how they would do it on in League 2, but they probably struggle to get a bet there anyway.

It's very hard to do this in reality compared to say the nba where you can have accurate fg% ft% 3pt% shots in the paint % etc etc stats. 

[Omm]

If anybody has BV instabet and wants an interest in the man city game they are 5-1 Sergio Aguero to score first for next 9 mins, 5.5 on bf. Obvs max £20

[rfgqqabc]

I'd bet a lot of money Bloom and his army of statisticians are way ahead of both the articles published above. I'd eat my hat if they were using shots taken/shots on target as a meaningful stat on its own. I'm fairly sure they will have tracking for the placement of shots in the highest leagues. Not sure how they would do it on in League 2, but they probably struggle to get a bet there anyway.

It's very hard to do this in reality compared to say the nba where you can have accurate fg% ft% 3pt% shots in the paint % etc etc stats. 

Wouldn't your multimillion company find a way? And if some blogger/journalist was posting better quality stats online wouldn't you want to a) hire him, and b) get the information taken down.

[arbboy]

I'd bet a lot of money Bloom and his army of statisticians are way ahead of both the articles published above. I'd eat my hat if they were using shots taken/shots on target as a meaningful stat on its own. I'm fairly sure they will have tracking for the placement of shots in the highest leagues. Not sure how they would do it on in League 2, but they probably struggle to get a bet there anyway.

It's very hard to do this in reality compared to say the nba where you can have accurate fg% ft% 3pt% shots in the paint % etc etc stats. 

Wouldn't your multimillion company find a way? And if some blogger/journalist was posting better quality stats online wouldn't you want to a) hire him, and b) get the information taken down.

Sure it's possible but it's very hard compared to other sports such as the nba.