Tips for Tikay

[rinswun]

Brighton's problem is two fold - one, the chances they are creating are half chances, pot shots from 20 yards etc. The expectation of those chances is low and the goals scored is in correlation to that. They are lacking a genuine creative force in midfield (Texiera is too lightweight to be effective) and therefore they aren't getting many good chances in the box. Strikers making decent runs but no service.

In order to combat the above they are pushing the full backs forward to try and give them more attacking width to get crosses in the right areas. This is leaving them hopelessly exposed on the counter and they are conceding goals regularly after giving the ball away in the oppositions half. See the Middlesborough, Brentford and Charlton games for prime examples. I don't know who Huddersfield have out wide but if they're zippy then there is every chance they'll win the game even giving up 30% possession.

[Omm]

If anybody has BV instabet and wants an interest in the man city game they are 5-1 Sergio Aguero to score first for next 9 mins, 5.5 on bf. Obvs max £20

Landed if anyone managed to get on. Might be an idea to download the app Tikay. Usually beat bf.

[Chompy]

Poshies have played five times on a Tuesday night this season: LLLLL

How bout dem Notts County though!

[Kmac84]

Poshies have played five times on a Tuesday night this season: LLLLL

How bout dem Notts County though!

Wish you stuck that up earlier.

[Chompy]

Poshies have played five times on a Tuesday night this season: LLLLL

How bout dem Notts County though!

Wish you stuck that up earlier.

I didn't rec a bet on the game?


Coventry-Posh should be interesting at the weekend. Coventry are awful and can't defend.

Poshies had two centre backs sent off tonight, Baldwin and Bostwick, and both will presumably be suspended on Saturday. Christian Burgess is also out with a hip problem, as is left-back Kgosi Nthle.

That means we're left with Zakuani, who's a bit-part player these days, Ricardo Santos, who will be deece but is a bit of a rabbit at the moment, and RB Michael Smith.

My guess is we'll have Zak and Santos in the middle, switch Smith to left-back, which I don't think suits, and the adaptable/ordinary Kane Ferdinand in at right-back.

This feels like a spot we shouldn't miss, so flick in fifth on over 4.5 at 7-1 with Shut'em down Vic at 7-1 ta.

[Kmac84]

Na but Rick posted on the football betting thread, I emptied one on -1 and over 2.5.  I'm a glutton. 

Lots of games today.

So far I'm on these :

Crewe v Peterborough

I get the impression from Chompy's posts on TFT that Peterborough were hitting some form and starting to score more freely recently.

Crewe have won a couple of games but I think they will struggle to cope with Peterborough.

I like Peterborough -1 goal at 9/4.

[DungBeetle]

Deeney unfit when he came on tonight. Wouldn't expect much for a couple of matches.

[Doobs]

A bit slow on the update but our 33/1 chance for the Champion Hurdle ran on Saturday and won http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/18-10-2014/cheltenham/result/645773/masterson-holdings-hurdle/video.  He is giving 8 lbs to the 2nd here, and it wass first race of the season, so I wouldn't have expected fireworks.

Current betfair price is 24/26 and you can still get best priced 25/1 with a couple of bookies.

[redarmi]

i haven't got time to go through them all but this last weekend

home to middlesborough

16 shots, 13 off target

62% possession

lose 2-1

you can see why they'll show up on stats betting radars, but iirc this is a consistent theme

http://www.seagulls.co.uk/fixtures-results/match-report/index.aspx?matchid=3734191

Fwiw I went to this game and am pretty surprised they had that many shots.  Never really felt as though Boro were under any real pressure at all.

[horseplayer]

So impressed with Bournemouth at Charlton I went to see them again at home last night.

Serious side

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £171.05

Outstanding Bets £4,084.56

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

A profit of £40 yesterday with confirmation that Richard Hughes (£55 at 8/11) has won his third jockey's title. We have likely handicap jockeys title and trainers winner bets to take within the next month though



ongoing positions

Football

- In the Championship Watford and Forest drew 2-2, no goals from Deeney, Vydra scoring again, and are now second in the table behind Derby

Two goals from Michail Anotnoio pegged Watford back

Click to see full-size image.

- In League One Peterborough lost away at Crewe and stay second. Doncaster also lost again, this time at home to Orient, and are one point above the relegation places and are 12 points behind Peterborough in the match bet

- In League Two Newport County climbed to 8th with a 1-0 win at home to Southend via a penalty. 4 wins in the last five for Newport

Click to see full-size image.

- Non league. Guernsey lost 5-2 at Tooting and Mitcham. One thing i notice, following them now as Ido, is that they frequently have to put out far weaker sides for midweek trips to the mainland than they do for any home games. Frequently lots of changes in line up one game to the next, which i assume is difficulties getting time off work etc

Baseball

In game one of the World Series the Giants beat the Royals 7-1 to take one against the head. The Giants star pitcher Madison Bumgarner, who delights in the nickname "MadBum" outduelled James Shields who was pulled after less than 4 innings. By the time he conceded a run the Giants were 7-0 up

Bumgarner is one of the best pitchers in baseball. His world series career now reads as follows

W-L: 3-0
IP 22
Runs Allowed 1

Click to see full-size image.

10 of the past 11 (and 22 of the past 26) teams to win Game 1 went on to win the World Series, so a good start for our bet

Giants: 9-2 this postseason (won 4 straight); won 16 of last 18 postseason games

--

Away from our bets,  40 goals were scored in a single night (8 matches played) for the first time in Champions history

Man C throwing away a 2 goal lead at CSKA was a nasty result given what followed...

Click to see full-size image.

An interesting snippet in a Survation poll yesterday

Click to see full-size image.

with the Conservatives throwing the kitchen sink Aga at Rochester, you can get 5/2 them to overturn UKIP, where Reckless is far less popular (and presumably not a cast iron personal vote) than Carswell was in Clacton

Some give Labour a squeak at 33-1 too http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/10/22/rochester-and-strood-is-being-presented-as-solely-a-con-ukip-battle-but-what-about-labour/

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/rochester-and-strood-by-election/winning-party

[tikay]

Dream start to the Baseball bet Tighty, well done.

Given the emotional attachment you (we) had to the Royals after that amazing season, it must have been a leap of faith to suddenly back against them in the World Series, you must really be able to look at these things unemotionally. Not sure I could have gone against the Royals, pure sentiment.

Meanwhile, nearer home......

Two goals from Michail Anotnoio pegged Watford back

Uh-oh, here we go again.......

[horseplayer]

Michael Smith starting to get going now

http://www.teamtalk.com/league-one/top-scorers

Should at least contend for a place

[TightEnd]

Michael Smith starting to get going now

http://www.teamtalk.com/league-one/top-scorers

Should at least contend for a place

we don't have a bet on him do we? or did i miss putting it on the spreadsheet?

[tikay]

Morning all

Igor back on the goals and Michael smith scoring again

Igor igor

Still some 33 around, ew four spots. Any good we think?

Also, Reuben Reid 16-1 four spots in League Two? The basement boot in this league looks set to be fought out by a bunch of old rofflers this season, with no Winnalls or Hogans lurking.

Think Swindon have to many options to score which is a bit annoying and Smith seems to score for a few games then go away then come back

League Two no idea not looked at this season

BUMPED.

I think horsey suggested Smith, but I don't believe Fred got on.