Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Good luck whatever you have bet in the Classic.

[tikay]

Good luck whatever you have bet in the Classic.

Well I did no good at all, but quite a race, very rough out of the stalls.

California Chrome, and it's oh-so passionate owner, is quite a story, too.

[icles test]

Good luck whatever you have bet in the Classic.

the one thats about to get jipped......

[BigAdz]

HOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLD

[icles test]

Good luck whatever you have bet in the Classic.

the one thats about to get jipped......

wow, just wow

[George2Loose]

No-one else is going to start this thread, so I'm going to start it myself.

Our hero is teetering on the brink of getting back into sports gambling, but is resisting because he reckons, deep down, he's a mug punter.

So I reckon with all the good sports betting punters (and Boldie too) on here, we can tun Tiikay from ice cream to shark.

The idea is for him to start with a bank of £1000, and for people to regular posters to chip in with selections with a maximum stake of 5% of his current bank.

No more than one selection per poster per week I think and make a post with a cogent argument as to why the bet should be made.

I guess I'll start.

£40 Michel Hazanavicus Best Director Oscar @ 5/8 bwin This really is a no-brainer bet. The Artist is a stunning piece of work, and has received hugely positive reviews and is definitely the sort of movie which will appeal to the Academy. Instead of backing it to win Best Picture at a prohibitive 3/10, take the bigger odds about the director triumphing. 8 of the last 9 Best Picture winners have also scooped the Best Director award. The major danger is Scorsese obviously. But he won his Oscar (finally) in 2007 with The Departed, and from the consensus reviews I have read, Hugo is not another Godfather. And the 3 d aspect is unlikely to appeal to traditionalists.

I think Hazanavicus will be considerably shorter come Oscars night and is a great bet at 5/8




Can someone remind me why it is best, according to shrewd ones, to take free bet on a big outsider than nicking a bit on a good thing/odds on banker, please?

ty


I don't think this is entirely correct.  I don't think the answer concerning you don't get your stake back fully explains why taking a short price horse is so bad.

Say you had a £50 free bet.

If you back a 1/2 chance. Assume it has a 67% chance of winning, your expectated return is 0.67 x £25 = £16.67

If you back a 3/1 chance.  Assume it has a 25% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.25 x £150 = £37.50

If you back a 10/1 chance.  Assume it has a 9% chance of winning, your expected return is  0.09 x £500 = £45

If you back a 50/1 chance.  I think this is where the theory falls over.  A lot of 50/1 chances are 80/1 or so on Betfair, so chance of winning is only 0.0125.  So expected return =£2500 x0.0125 = £31.25, which is lower than the expected return on the 10/1 chance.

I think the correct answer is use your free bet to back a horse that is over 10/1 that the bookie is offering very close to Betfair prices on.

Do not back each way



EDIT - The Freddy Spready Link is.......


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=24


tikay does not have

Pinnacle
Betdaq
888
Unibet
Winner
betbright
32 red

not funded

racebets
betway
totesport

closed/can't use

boylesports
stan james
sky bet

restricted

bet365
paddy power

some restrictions, can be ok but generally ok to at least get on in part

ladbrokes
betfred
coral
sportingbet


all good

bwin
bet victor
william hill
betfair
betfairsportsbook


will pin this on the first post of the thread, as we are often getting suggestions to use Pinnacle or stan james or boylesports and it will save time to be sent to suitable places first

Have the original rules been kept to? And how much is the original 1000 worth now?

[Marky147]

Horsey's horse, Majestic Harbour can be had at 42 on betfair right now for those that missed the 33/1 earlier.

PS Marky, Paul has had some pretty bad weeks.

Yeah, he's not being helped by the songs though.

I know they're supposed to have a choice what to sing, but I can't have that, after seeing some of the performances this year

Whatever he has been given, he has sung very well.

Obv never going to win in a million years though, and I think that the most likely winner is Lauren.

[Marky147]

Have the original rules been kept to? And how much is the original 1000 worth now?

To a degree, I think so.

I think Tikay loaded up the kitty with a few grand more, because the forward book was so book.

That said, Fred is still over £4k up since inception.

[TightEnd]

Have the original rules been kept to? And how much is the original 1000 worth now?

To a degree, I think so.

I think Tikay loaded up the kitty with a few grand more, because the forward book was so book.

That said, Fred is still over £4k up since inception.

The rules have been kept to, no bet has exceeded 5% of bank

£4.1k profit, £4.7k forward book currently

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £46.87

Outstanding Bets £4661.26

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32

A loss of £47 to start the month

Two each way winners at the Breeders cup, Stephanie's Kitten and Just the Judge for £28 combined with favourite Dank disappointing as hoped and retired after the race



losers £50 from Secret Gesture, a length off third in the same race and Majestic Harbour in the Classic, in which Bayern just held off the excellent Jamie Spencer and Toast of New York



Djokovic pummelled Nishikori in the ATP Paris semi 2 and 3, a £20 loss

yesterday's other loser Peterborough H T/Scunthorpe FT for -£5. More of Peterborough anon

ongoing positions

Premier League

- Southampton soared to 16 places above relegation with an away win at Hull

Click to see full-size image.

- Top ten bets Stoke and West Ham a point each in a 2-2 draw

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- Top ten bet Newcastle won their 4th in a row beating Liverpool, a handicap bet sinking faster by the week, 1-0. Peter Beardsley has returned his CV to the filing cabinet in the spare room in Ponteland. If Balotelli could hurry up and lose it soon, red card please, that would be helpful



In shock news, there are growing fears that manufacturers of black-only football boots might be struggling for business

Click to see full-size image.

- A double whammy in the Midlands as tactically abject Leicester lost to relegation bet West Brom. The onlty consolation as it produced one of the best pictures I saw in my trawl through my various sources

Click to see full-size image.

- Bad news for the Wellbeck bet, with two from Sanchez at home to Burnley

Click to see full-size image.

Championship

- Watford went top, two points clear of Bournemouth. Vydra scored again, Deeney did not

Click to see full-size image.

- top six bet Fulham were leading at Wigan, went 3-2 behind and came back to draw 3-3 with a late Ruiz penalty

Click to see full-size image.

- Vetokele scored for Charlton

Click to see full-size image.

- Bamford, top Mddlesborough scorer bet, scored in their win at Rotherham

Click to see full-size image.

League One

- Peterborough lost at home to Scunthorpe to fall out of the top six. A slight consolation for us, top goalscorer bet Conor Washington scored

Chompy would like us to close out the £300 top six bet pdq, problem being that dubai placed it so its with him not me, if he can. Doom and gloom in the fens though

- In worse news Dncaster, relegation and Peterborough match bet, won at Bradford

League Two

- Newport were 2-0 up at Hartlepool and ehaded for the top six, had a man sent off after an hour and drew 2-2 to stay 7th

Conference

- Dover drew 2-2 at Southport and are two points and two places above the drop zone for our relegation bet

Bundesliga

- Nasty result for the Mainz05 top six bet, losing at home 2-1 to Werder Bremen

F1

Rosberg beat Hamilton to pole in Austin with Bottas in 3rd. Hamilton suffering with a brake issue. Bottas needs to score more points than Rcciarfdo today to keep the each way component of the ante post drivers bet alive

Click to see full-size image.

Basketball

score from last night affecting our teams (in bold)

Dallas Mavericks beat New Orleans Pelicans 109-104

I didn't know NOLA was famous for its pelicans.



I can honestly say that it is an NBA franchise i had never heard of until i checked the scores this morning



Toronto Raptors beat the Orlando Magic 108-95

Click to see full-size image.

X-Factor

All our acts survived the Saturday night elimination. More to come tonight. Which is terrific

[Ironside]

Have the original rules been kept to? And how much is the original 1000 worth now?

To a degree, I think so.

I think Tikay loaded up the kitty with a few grand more, because the forward book was so book.

That said, Fred is still over £4k up since inception.

The rules have been kept to, no bet has exceeded 5% of bank

£4.1k profit, £4.7k forward book currently

1 recommend per week per punter went along time ago though

[BigAdz]

A good Breeders Cup almost spoilt by Frank almost pulling off his first BC victory in the big one. Thankfully years of tugging the ears off decent horses meant his overly developed triceps, prevented the full extension of his whip motion and he flapped his way to second, in his final BC race.

Happy retirement Frank.

You've earned it. X

[TightEnd]

Have the original rules been kept to? And how much is the original 1000 worth now?

To a degree, I think so.

I think Tikay loaded up the kitty with a few grand more, because the forward book was so book.

That said, Fred is still over £4k up since inception.

The rules have been kept to, no bet has exceeded 5% of bank

£4.1k profit, £4.7k forward book currently

1 recommend per week per punter went along time ago though

and the thread is much better for it

more people, more ideas = good thread

[BigAdz]

Have the original rules been kept to? And how much is the original 1000 worth now?

To a degree, I think so.

I think Tikay loaded up the kitty with a few grand more, because the forward book was so book.

That said, Fred is still over £4k up since inception.

The rules have been kept to, no bet has exceeded 5% of bank

£4.1k profit, £4.7k forward book currently

1 recommend per week per punter went along time ago though

Good thing it did, or the thread would have died. Too many people happy to take from here, but never put their head on the block and give an opinion. Apart from a daily barb comment from Tighty, no one will mind a loser, as long as the work and effort has gone into it.
If the thread is to continue to work it will need new blood, and new angles, so moving away from one recommend per week per punter was a tweak for the good IMO.

[TightEnd]

hey I don't barb at any losers

i take the mick out of all and sundry/long term positions/myself included in the reports on occasion, but not the losers. Losers happen