Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

The things Tighty does for Fred.......


Merstham FC. A footballing giant, near Redhill in Surrey. Hosted Guernsey last night in the Ryman One South. I settled down expectantly watching twitter

At the weekend, he'll be monitoring the England Rugby, Arsenal v Man United, the Abu Dhabi F1GP, X-Factor, SCD & IACGMOOH.

What a life.

[TightEnd]

AFL 2015

I have been looking at next season's Aussie Rules. I know its a little early but there may be an opportunity here. It is very tough for an outside team to make the final 8, but Port Adelaide have shown its possible with the right setup, and came very close to making the Grand Final last season. The top 6 teams will be odds on and will definately be in the final 8, leaving two places to find. Usual suspects will be Adelaide Crows, Richmond, West Coast and Essendon, but the team that catches my eye as young, improving, good coaching team are the Greater Western Sydney Giants. They have recently gained a couple of experienced players, but also have 3 of the first 7 selections in next months AFL Draft. A speculative bet then would be 20 on GWS Giants to make the last 8 in the AFL. Should be able to get 8.0 or better

Hello again

absolutely no idea on the AFL here

it, the season, does not start to next April either!

3 places offer the top 8 market

http://www.oddschecker.com/australian-rules/afl/top-8-finish

as betfair is the only one suitable this introduced me to the delights of the Australian wallet

GWS Giants    8.4    £20.00    £148.00
Ref: 4457311285 Bet placed: 09:08 19-Nov-14

[Marky147]

Gemma Collins gone

http://www.itv.com/imacelebrity/jungle-spy/gemma-collins-leaves-the-jungle

I hope they withhold her dough!

[Tonji]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/england/11238149/England-need-to-escape-analysis-and-structures-and-loosen-up-sports-science-is-strangling-the-life-out-of-players.html

Worth a read. Applies to all sports. Cycling has reached a tipping point, stage racing in the past few seasons has become a bit predictable. How you do turn the clock back & find a balance between science & just allowing talented athletes to just go out & have fun in the sports they love?

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/afc-north/winner

One for the nfl boys here.  96% book here.  Where is the value?  I had a brief look at remaining fixtures div records i think 12/5 Pitts looks the value wiht bwin. 

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/afc-north/winner

One for the nfl boys here.  96% book here.  Where is the value?  I had a brief look at remaining fixtures div records i think 12/5 Pitts looks the value wiht bwin.  

I have bet this in a double with ukip at 1/20 (bf is 1/33) for the by election tomorrow to get more on as bwin's limits are much higher if you back things in doubles or higher.

I think we should be having a decent bet at 12/5 with bwin (or 13/5 in a double with ukip at 1/20 for tomorrow).  Recommend £50 double.

sporting index have Pitts as a solid fav in their divisional indices.   Spreadex also have Pitt as a fav in their fixed odds market for the div.  Would happily go with those two agreeing over the lol traders at the rest of the fixed odds firms.

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/american-football/nfl-long-term/mm4.uk.meeting.4738658/afc-divisional-indices

On a similar angle £50 Eagles with hills recommended at 4/5 for their division.  Sporting have them as a solid fav on their indices and spreadex 4/7 on their fixed odds.  4/7 looks a lot closer to the right price than 4/5.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/nfc-east/winner

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/american-football/nfl-long-term/mm4.uk.meeting.4738659/nfc-divisional-indices

Obviously open to the NFL expert's views on here.  I am just playing the maths and respected firms view's over any real opinion.

[Chompy]

Tellymix X Factor poll

Andrea Faustini  13.43%  (620 votes)
Ben Haenow  14.86%  (686 votes)
Fleur East  15.77%  (728 votes)
Lauren Platt  15.23%  (703 votes)
Only The Young  14.47%  (668 votes)
Stereo Kicks  22.48%  (1,038 votes)
Stevi Ritchie  4%  (174 votes)

Total Votes: 4,617

That's a decent number of votes and, if we're trusting it, there's an argument for backing Louis to be winning manager @ 16-1.

Otherwise, now seems like good time to do a bit of trading. We are on Fleur ftw and Simon to be winning manager, so double coverage. It should be possible to lay Simon @ 2.2. What we think Doobs given he's probably losing Stevi Ritchie this weekend?

[Stopsleyhatter]

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/afc-north/winner

One for the nfl boys here.  96% book here.  Where is the value?  I had a brief look at remaining fixtures div records i think 12/5 Pitts looks the value wiht bwin. 

Steelers look great value at 12/5 but as a longtime Cincy fan I'm hoping the bengals can sweep the steelers as they did the Ravens.Josh Gordon is back for the Browns which is a huge plus for them and the Ravens have the easier schedule but a poor divisional record.

[Tal]

Such a good photo!



For those who might be thinking ill of Fred Favourite, Magnus Carlsen, he's not having a mid-game snooze. He's trying to remember his opening preparation. He is going through the games and sequences of moves he's studied to recall which the best moves are in that position.

He had a proper think, too...





The last two games have seen Carlsen being the better prepared, which is in stark contrast to most of the rest of the match. Day off today. Back on it tomorrow.

[Tal]

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/afc-north/winner

One for the nfl boys here.  96% book here.  Where is the value?  I had a brief look at remaining fixtures div records i think 12/5 Pitts looks the value wiht bwin. 

Steelers look great value at 12/5 but as a longtime Cincy fan I'm hoping the bengals can sweep the steelers as they did the Ravens.Josh Gordon is back for the Browns which is a huge plus for them and the Ravens have the easier schedule but a poor divisional record.

Steelers and Ravens have no secondary and the Bengals have been beaten up in their D-Line. Backing Big Ben is pretty much like betting on Balotelli to get man of the match: when it happens, it absolutely romps home; otherwise, you're never close.

It's an absolute pinsticker for me, that division. Having an overbroke market helps, mind

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/afc-north/winner

One for the nfl boys here.  96% book here.  Where is the value?  I had a brief look at remaining fixtures div records i think 12/5 Pitts looks the value wiht bwin. 

Steelers look great value at 12/5 but as a longtime Cincy fan I'm hoping the bengals can sweep the steelers as they did the Ravens.Josh Gordon is back for the Browns which is a huge plus for them and the Ravens have the easier schedule but a poor divisional record.

sorry have been out all day working

the steelers are 21/10, i am assuming i have missed the overbroke price?

tough division to predict, we have a Steelers position already. Every team has its flaws 

[TightEnd]

Such a good photo!



For those who might be thinking ill of Fred Favourite, Magnus Carlsen, he's not having a mid-game snooze. He's trying to remember his opening preparation. He is going through the games and sequences of moves he's studied to recall which the best moves are in that position.

He had a proper think, too...





The last two games have seen Carlsen being the better prepared, which is in stark contrast to most of the rest of the match. Day off today. Back on it tomorrow.

we are on Carlsen -1.5

He leads by 1 with 4 to play

are we a favourite, do you think, for Carlsen to win another game with white?

[TightEnd]

Tellymix X Factor poll

Andrea Faustini  13.43%  (620 votes)
Ben Haenow  14.86%  (686 votes)
Fleur East  15.77%  (728 votes)
Lauren Platt  15.23%  (703 votes)
Only The Young  14.47%  (668 votes)
Stereo Kicks  22.48%  (1,038 votes)
Stevi Ritchie  4%  (174 votes)

Total Votes: 4,617

That's a decent number of votes and, if we're trusting it, there's an argument for backing Louis to be winning manager @ 16-1.

Otherwise, now seems like good time to do a bit of trading. We are on Fleur ftw and Simon to be winning manager, so double coverage. It should be possible to lay Simon @ 2.2. What we think Doobs given he's probably losing Stevi Ritchie this weekend?

just a summary to help discussion, these are the outstanding positions

X Factor winning judge   Simon 4/1   50
X Factor   Only the Young   9/1   11.11
X-Factor   Fleur East   34.44   20
X Factor winner   only the young   33/1   10

Simon has 3 left, but one is the terrible one who butchered Bohemian Rhapsody



essentially if we can get beardy jumper and Lauren beat we are in good shape aren't we? the polling would be pointing in that direction....

[Tal]

His style of not worrying about getting an edge from the opening means colour is not very important to him, certainly compared to most of the elite players.

Anand is a point down, so has to try to win a game. Because he can't win from a level endgame (you might as well try to out-pass Bayern Munich), he'll have to try something in the opening and middlegame and that brings risks with it.

Carlsen will be happy to draw with Black primarily because it makes it harder for Anand to win (Anand is one of the majority whose game prefers playing with the white bits). His youth and fitness could be relevant factors if there are many more 122 move games.

Without looking at a market, I'd make this slightly in our favour now. Very much in the balance, though.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/afc-north/winner

One for the nfl boys here.  96% book here.  Where is the value?  I had a brief look at remaining fixtures div records i think 12/5 Pitts looks the value wiht bwin. 

Steelers look great value at 12/5 but as a longtime Cincy fan I'm hoping the bengals can sweep the steelers as they did the Ravens.Josh Gordon is back for the Browns which is a huge plus for them and the Ravens have the easier schedule but a poor divisional record.

sorry have been out all day working

the steelers are 21/10, i am assuming i have missed the overbroke price?

tough division to predict, we have a Steelers position already. Every team has its flaws 

Still think 21/10 is value would probably only rec £30 now as opposed to £50 at 12/5.  bwin at 1/100 now for the by election ukip as well so just £30 single at 21/10.  No disputing Pitt should be favs here.  21/10 is still too big.