Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Here here, Tighty. I'm convinced Sir Bruce kept these nefarious fripperies out of the show. Jumping the shark is a spot on description.

I suspect the top of the leader board market is getting less attractive now, as there's nothing really between the top five week on week and ties are very likely.

Best of luck in the four card stuff.

I don't know the answer to this, but are ties inherently bad?

If we are making an EV bet then I don't see much difference between putting a tenner on Pixie on a bet that only pays £20 or loses £10 and one that sometimes pays you a fiver too?  I can see how you end up with less +£20s if there are more ties, but you also end up with less -£10s too. 

I am not saying that weekly betting is good, just that I don't see the number of dead heats having much to do with it.  It feels like a secondary effect that can't make a lot of difference to me.  I'd far rather give up because we have 5 good couples with not much between them and only 3 bookies laying to 120% or similar.

Anybody know for sure?

[Marky147]

Does the X Factor elimination still go to the judges tonight?

If so, do we think they'll kick out Lauren ahead of Stereo Dicks?

Lauren is 1-4 to be in the bottom two, Stereo Dicks are 1-2. Not sure I'd have them as far apart as 2-5, 9-2 for the boot. Stereo Dicks are, ultimately, awful.

Judges love the Stereo Kicks...

The comments from the judges generally bear no relevance to the performance, and it's like they're just reading off one of those call centre sheets

Pretty certain  the judges will take it to the public from now on for the bottom two. Seems to be that two of the judges gush about whatever act is on.

They have done most weeks, bar when they got rid of Stevi, and that has still resulted in the betting favourite going home.

I tried being clever when Jay James was odds on to go, and backed Stevi at 5/1. I was counting when Louis and Simon saved Jay, only to see Mel B send it to deadlock, despite the fact she spent every week moaning about him.

Don't think it is a two horse race for bottom 2.  Andrea isn't very popular any more.   And I can see simon taking stereo kicks over Andrea.  Cheryl unlikely to be off script if that is the case.  Was hoping for better than 5/1 mind, so no bet. 

That's a given, Simon doesn't like Andrea, and he thinks that Stereo Kicks can make him money.

I'm just saying that the market hasn't been wrong yet, even when it looked absurd.

[Tal]

Here here, Tighty. I'm convinced Sir Bruce kept these nefarious fripperies out of the show. Jumping the shark is a spot on description.

I suspect the top of the leader board market is getting less attractive now, as there's nothing really between the top five week on week and ties are very likely.

Best of luck in the four card stuff.

I don't know the answer to this, but are ties inherently bad?

If we are making an EV bet then I don't see much difference between putting a tenner on Pixie on a bet that only pays £20 or loses £10 and one that sometimes pays you a fiver too?  I can see how you end up with less +£20s if there are more ties, but you also end up with less -£10s too. 

I am not saying that weekly betting is good, just that I don't see the number of dead heats having much to do with it.  It feels like a secondary effect that can't make a lot of difference to me.  I'd far rather give up because we have 5 good couples with not much between them and only 3 bookies laying to 120% or similar.

Anybody know for sure?

Personally, I've got more chances of finding value in the judges' scores than the public view.

[arbboy]

NFL

I have had a max bet on a double at hills ante post.  Spoke about this earlier in the week.  Think fred got enough Eagles positions already so Tighty wasn't keen to get deeper involved which is fair enough.

Eagles 4/9 and Arizona evens.

Both these prices are too big and probably liab driven at this stage of the season.  Eagles should be closer to 1/4 (spreads have them as likely as GB to win their division yet Eagles are 4/9 (people asking for 2/5 on bf for chunks) and GB generally 2/7 (1/3 in a place).  

Arizona is a virtual 2 horse race with Seattle (assume hills are also full of Seattle like dallas) and happy to 'give it away'.  The key in this div is SF.  I am struggling to see how they are a single figure price to win this division.  They are miles behind, have no tie breakers yet take out >10% of the book with most firms.  The spreads also have Arizona as a decent fav when most firms have it as a coin flip.  Happy to go with sportingindex spreadsheets over the lol liability driven 'give it away' hills traders.

Recommend £100 double at hills at 15/8.  Appreciate fred won't want to get on but the post is more for others to get on.

[TightEnd]

Any views out there on the Packers Patriots game? I'm Thinking unders on the points total with both teams running the ball quite a bit and throwing a lot of check downs killing time on the clock...

Everyone has been trying to get a piece of NE/GB, as the total opened at 60 in some shops before settling around 57-58

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-england-patriots-at-green-bay-packers/total-points

– the opening 60 was the highest over/under since the Greatest Show on Turf Rams played the 49ers in 2000 (63 over/under)

the Patriots will probably go with a power running game, try to keep rodgers off the field and control the clock away from home

Although it has been a recipe for disaster in a lot nfl primtetime games this season, quotes up here almost compel you to try the under

[bobby1]

Think that's the 5th time in a couple of weeks I've read summat on an NFL game that's just a quote taken from a preview elsewhere. I know it doesn't really matter but surely we have to link the article(s) instead of just passing it as an opinion?


4:25PM ET Game

New England @ Green Bay

'''''Sunday's Patriots-Packers showdown has a week-high 58.5-point over-under that feels like a bit of a trap. I don't see Aaron Rodgers lighting up Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, and it's entirely possible New England attacks Green Bay with a power-rushing attack, slowing down the game. I'd bet the under.'''''

[TightEnd]

I use rotoworld for the stats quite a lot, just a short cut for a quick post where i add an opinion at the end but i don't think the quote you put up is from there, must be a different article

[bobby1]

I use rotoworld for the stats quite a lot, just a short cut for a quick post where i add an opinion at the end but i don't think the quote you put up is from there, must be a different article

np, tho It is from Rotoworld.

[Stopsleyhatter]

Any views out there on the Packers Patriots game? I'm Thinking unders on the points total with both teams running the ball quite a bit and throwing a lot of check downs killing time on the clock...

Everyone has been trying to get a piece of NE/GB, as the total opened at 60 in some shops before settling around 57-58

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-england-patriots-at-green-bay-packers/total-points

– the opening 60 was the highest over/under since the Greatest Show on Turf Rams played the 49ers in 2000 (63 over/under)

the Patriots will probably go with a power running game, try to keep rodgers off the field and control the clock away from home

Although it has been a recipe for disaster in a lot nfl primtetime games this season, quotes up here almost compel you to try the under

£30 on the unders for the thread?

[TightEnd]

there was an interesting player prop too

this guy is a writer for nfl network

"Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer

Browns had Josh Gordon on a pitch count last week. He exceeded expectations. I'm told the reins come off today. He's full go vs. Bills."


last week was against Atlanta, a poor secondary and Gordon did the following

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/15705/josh-gordon


so if 8 catches was on restricted duty, what does "full go" mean? try and get it to him 15 times?

over his career (last year was a break out year) he's a big play guy, around 17 yards per reception. Again from the espn link above

the spreads are around 85 yards

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/cleveland-browns-at-buffalo-bills/total-receiving-yds-josh-gordon


the team passing defense stats are on http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=PASSING_NET_YARDS_GAME_AVG&tabSeq=2&season=2014&role=OPP&Submit=Go&archive=false&con

Atlanta is 32 of 32 so last week's line of 8-120 is flattered by that

Buffalo is a different prospect, top ten passing defense and very stout up front so its not too easy to run on them.

if you look at their secondary as i typically do i go to our lads

http://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/BUF

mckelvin is the number one corner, out for the year so its gordon versus gilmore or one of the replacements. have to assume the browns OL wil stand up in protection but i like the match up for overs here

 

[Tal]

How's Cleveland against the pass rush? The Bills are really finding some ground there now, after a slow start.

[TightEnd]

How's Cleveland against the pass rush? The Bills are really finding some ground there now, after a slow start.

one of the better ones

conceded 18 sacks this season

offense is 12th in passing yards. obviously first ten weeks without gordon

http://www.nfl.com/teams/clevelandbrowns/statistics?team=CLE

pro bowl left tackle in joe thomas

buffalo is a strong front 7 though

[Tal]

I know we should be wary of recency biased overs, but Big Ben passing yards against the saints looks juicy.

(Steelers Media Manager) Dom Rinelli @drinelli

Most Passing Yards Per Home Game: Single-Season NFL History
Ben Roethlisberger 361.2 (2014)
Tony Romo 355.1 (2012)
Drew Brees 354.4 (2013)

New Orleans are poor against the pass, having improved against the run. They're in a division which flatters the stats a little, with Cam inconsistent and the Falcons having no OL.Can see Bell getting screen passes and the wideouts having fun in the deep. Line 290.5 with BadBlokes.

Thoughts?

[TightEnd]

I know we should be wary of recency biased overs, but Big Ben passing yards against the saints looks juicy.

(Steelers Media Manager) Dom Rinelli @drinelli

Most Passing Yards Per Home Game: Single-Season NFL History
Ben Roethlisberger 361.2 (2014)
Tony Romo 355.1 (2012)
Drew Brees 354.4 (2013)

New Orleans are poor against the pass, having improved against the run. They're in a division which flatters the stats a little, with Cam inconsistent and the Falcons having no OL.Can see Bell getting screen passes and the wideouts having fun in the deep. Line 290.5 with BadBlokes.

Thoughts?

Wouldn't disagree

on the saints, there are various bits and peices out today that are interesting

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet now18 minutes ago

Drew Brees is 35 years old & #Saints have seen arm strength wane. He’s not big like Brady or Manning. #Saints must be prepared for the end

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet now20 minutes ago

Given Brees’ struggles, #Saints are preparing for life after Brees. Expect them to draft a QB high this draft. They wish they did last year

which helps explain some fantasy league dramas i have had in various leagues this year

[Tal]

£33 for £30, Tighty?

(Or whatever the shouty red man will lay?)