Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

I would like to take this opportunity to wish everyone at TfT a very happy "Invincibles Day" 2014/15.

lolzzzz.  Did fred lay Chelski to stay unbeaten at 8/1 in the end?

Actually liking your mob today Ralph against my mob odds against even though Wenger hates the Brit.  Can't remember arsenal ever going off anywhere near to 5/4 at Stoke.  Stoke are struggling this year.

[Tal]

Strictly.

I'll answer Tighty's questions as best as I can. I would expect the judges' scores would include the Waltzathon and would bet on that basis. It's why Pixie is 2/1 jolly, because she will be close to a lock to win the formation dance.

For those who don't know what I'm on about (careful...), in addition to the normal one dance each, the couples will take to the floor together and everyone will perform a waltz at the same time. This is how competition dances happen and will be entirely familiar to the professionals.



That floor is huge. The Strictly studio floor isn't. Clashes happen and the man will need to ensure he steers his partner out of harm's way (it's not really possible for the woman, who is facing the wrong way, more often than not). It is possible that the male professional dancers will dance towards the male celebrity dancers to make them make mistakes, but I wouldn't think that's all that likely (you could find the public don't like that and scupper your own chances).

One celeb has the best ballroom footwork I've ever seen from any celeb on Strictly and that is Simon. Simon is 9/2 to finish top tonight and I like that. He has an American Smooth (which is foxtrot based) as well. I reckon 44 (out of 46) will be needed to finish top.

I agree with Tighty in that Frankie might be the one to struggle today. That salsa footage isn't very promising, although she is often someone who strikes in the week and improves on Saturday. Kevin refuses to dance down and her legs aren't as nice as the judges coo about really; she doesn't have a lot of power in them and her arms aren't that nice. Don't get me wrong, she's an excellent dancer, but we have to look at small things now, because there's not much in it between them. The song is a producer choice and utterly ridiculous (more Bovril than salsa), so I'm tempted to have a little bet on her to go this weekend at 33/1.

As for elimination, Mark is 4/9 and that's obvious. He's the worst dancer left. To oppose that, you have to think about who might be there if Mark gets lots of votes and avoids the bottom two. Pixie won't be there. Caroline had the grace and balance of a weeble but no one seems to care. Jake might get a bit of a vote bounce from last week with the judges. Simon would be the logical shot. If he finishes midtable, he'll be in danger because there are not all that many votes out there for him. It's a shame, because I've warmed to him in the last few weeks. Way less grumpy. Maybe circumstances in his personal life have changed? Anyway, if it's him and Frankie, say, in the bottom two, he's in trouble. He's 5/1 to be eliminated. The most logical way he doesn't finish in the bottom two is if he's right at the top of the board and has too many points to drop down, because he's sure to be no better than fourth with the public and probably lower.

Team Maths and I had a chat about this last night. The Eso Bet seems logical: Simon to finish top 9/2 with Chorals and to be eliminated at 6/1 with Shouty Red Man. £20 each, unless doobs thinks we should factor in the dead heat at the top(?)

[Karabiner]

I would like to take this opportunity to wish everyone at TfT a very happy "Invincibles Day" 2014/15.

lolzzzz.  Did fred lay Chelski to stay unbeaten at 8/1 in the end?

Actually liking your mob today Ralph against my mob odds against even though Wenger hates the Brit.  Can't remember arsenal ever going off anywhere near to 5/4 at Stoke.  Stoke are struggling this year.

We have a very makeshift defence today Mark with either BFG or Chambers playing on the left of CD rather than their preferred right side, Bellerin is pretty raw although very pacy at RB too.

Nail-biter behind the sofa and no bet for me.

Ramsey will be booed throughout for having the temerity to have his leg broken like a twig by some brainless clogger a few years back which would make a victory very sweet should it occur.

[Tal]

I would like to take this opportunity to wish everyone at TfT a very happy "Invincibles Day" 2014/15.

lolzzzz.  Did fred lay Chelski to stay unbeaten at 8/1 in the end?

Actually liking your mob today Ralph against my mob odds against even though Wenger hates the Brit.  Can't remember arsenal ever going off anywhere near to 5/4 at Stoke.  Stoke are struggling this year.

We have a very makeshift defence today Mark with either BFG or Chambers playing on the left of CD rather than their preferred right side, Bellerin is pretty raw although very pacy at RB too.

Nail-biter behind the sofa and no bet for me.

Ramsey will be booed throughout for having the temerity to have his leg broken like a twig by some brainless clogger a few years back which would make a victory very sweet should it occur.

Yes, I expect you to win comfortably. Probably four or five nil.

[arbboy]

I would like to take this opportunity to wish everyone at TfT a very happy "Invincibles Day" 2014/15.

lolzzzz.  Did fred lay Chelski to stay unbeaten at 8/1 in the end?

Actually liking your mob today Ralph against my mob odds against even though Wenger hates the Brit.  Can't remember arsenal ever going off anywhere near to 5/4 at Stoke.  Stoke are struggling this year.

We have a very makeshift defence today Mark with either BFG or Chambers playing on the left of CD rather than their preferred right side, Bellerin is pretty raw although very pacy at RB too.

Nail-biter behind the sofa and no bet for me.

Ramsey will be booed throughout for having the temerity to have his leg broken like a twig by some brainless clogger a few years back which would make a victory very sweet should it occur.

Ramsey takes the shit from the brain dead stokies because of AW.  He is the real target of the stokies anger.  Feel sorry for Ramsey when he comes to stoke.  Totally unnecessary abuse.

[arbboy]

1-0 stoke Crouch after 1 minute! 

[Tal]

1-0 stoke Crouch after 1 minute! 

No subtlety in this thread anymore!

[arbboy]

reverse aftertiming!!!!  I thought it was national aftertiming weekend!

[Karabiner]

1-0 stoke Crouch after 1 minute! 

No subtlety in this thread anymore!

It was noted in my extremely long memory-bank.

[Tal]

1-0 stoke Crouch after 1 minute! 

No subtlety in this thread anymore!

It was noted in my extremely long memory-bank.

I think that account is in considerable credit. Largely because we lose more frequently.

[BigAdz]

Strictly.

I'll answer Tighty's questions as best as I can. I would expect the judges' scores would include the Waltzathon and would bet on that basis. It's why Pixie is 2/1 jolly, because she will be close to a lock to win the formation dance.

For those who don't know what I'm on about (careful...), in addition to the normal one dance each, the couples will take to the floor together and everyone will perform a waltz at the same time. This is how competition dances happen and will be entirely familiar to the professionals.



That floor is huge. The Strictly studio floor isn't. Clashes happen and the man will need to ensure he steers his partner out of harm's way (it's not really possible for the woman, who is facing the wrong way, more often than not). It is possible that the male professional dancers will dance towards the male celebrity dancers to make them make mistakes, but I wouldn't think that's all that likely (you could find the public don't like that and scupper your own chances).

One celeb has the best ballroom footwork I've ever seen from any celeb on Strictly and that is Simon. Simon is 9/2 to finish top tonight and I like that. He has an American Smooth (which is foxtrot based) as well. I reckon 44 (out of 46) will be needed to finish top.

I agree with Tighty in that Frankie might be the one to struggle today. That salsa footage isn't very promising, although she is often someone who strikes in the week and improves on Saturday. Kevin refuses to dance down and her legs aren't as nice as the judges coo about really; she doesn't have a lot of power in them and her arms aren't that nice. Don't get me wrong, she's an excellent dancer, but we have to look at small things now, because there's not much in it between them. The song is a producer choice and utterly ridiculous (more Bovril than salsa), so I'm tempted to have a little bet on her to go this weekend at 33/1.

As for elimination, Mark is 4/9 and that's obvious. He's the worst dancer left. To oppose that, you have to think about who might be there if Mark gets lots of votes and avoids the bottom two. Pixie won't be there. Caroline had the grace and balance of a weeble but no one seems to care. Jake might get a bit of a vote bounce from last week with the judges. Simon would be the logical shot. If he finishes midtable, he'll be in danger because there are not all that many votes out there for him. It's a shame, because I've warmed to him in the last few weeks. Way less grumpy. Maybe circumstances in his personal life have changed? Anyway, if it's him and Frankie, say, in the bottom two, he's in trouble. He's 5/1 to be eliminated. The most logical way he doesn't finish in the bottom two is if he's right at the top of the board and has too many points to drop down, because he's sure to be no better than fourth with the public and probably lower.

Team Maths and I had a chat about this last night. The Eso Bet seems logical: Simon to finish top 9/2 with Chorals and to be eliminated at 6/1 with Shouty Red Man. £20 each, unless doobs thinks we should factor in the dead heat at the top(?)

Yet to read it, but that any red blooded male that could be writing this at 3.20 on a Saturday tells me enough about Spurs fans. (For Tighty)

[Doobs]

Strictly.

I'll answer Tighty's questions as best as I can. I would expect the judges' scores would include the Waltzathon and would bet on that basis. It's why Pixie is 2/1 jolly, because she will be close to a lock to win the formation dance.

For those who don't know what I'm on about (careful...), in addition to the normal one dance each, the couples will take to the floor together and everyone will perform a waltz at the same time. This is how competition dances happen and will be entirely familiar to the professionals.



That floor is huge. The Strictly studio floor isn't. Clashes happen and the man will need to ensure he steers his partner out of harm's way (it's not really possible for the woman, who is facing the wrong way, more often than not). It is possible that the male professional dancers will dance towards the male celebrity dancers to make them make mistakes, but I wouldn't think that's all that likely (you could find the public don't like that and scupper your own chances).

One celeb has the best ballroom footwork I've ever seen from any celeb on Strictly and that is Simon. Simon is 9/2 to finish top tonight and I like that. He has an American Smooth (which is foxtrot based) as well. I reckon 44 (out of 46) will be needed to finish top.

I agree with Tighty in that Frankie might be the one to struggle today. That salsa footage isn't very promising, although she is often someone who strikes in the week and improves on Saturday. Kevin refuses to dance down and her legs aren't as nice as the judges coo about really; she doesn't have a lot of power in them and her arms aren't that nice. Don't get me wrong, she's an excellent dancer, but we have to look at small things now, because there's not much in it between them. The song is a producer choice and utterly ridiculous (more Bovril than salsa), so I'm tempted to have a little bet on her to go this weekend at 33/1.

As for elimination, Mark is 4/9 and that's obvious. He's the worst dancer left. To oppose that, you have to think about who might be there if Mark gets lots of votes and avoids the bottom two. Pixie won't be there. Caroline had the grace and balance of a weeble but no one seems to care. Jake might get a bit of a vote bounce from last week with the judges. Simon would be the logical shot. If he finishes midtable, he'll be in danger because there are not all that many votes out there for him. It's a shame, because I've warmed to him in the last few weeks. Way less grumpy. Maybe circumstances in his personal life have changed? Anyway, if it's him and Frankie, say, in the bottom two, he's in trouble. He's 5/1 to be eliminated. The most logical way he doesn't finish in the bottom two is if he's right at the top of the board and has too many points to drop down, because he's sure to be no better than fourth with the public and probably lower.

Team Maths and I had a chat about this last night. The Eso Bet seems logical: Simon to finish top 9/2 with Chorals and to be eliminated at 6/1 with Shouty Red Man. £20 each, unless doobs thinks we should factor in the dead heat at the top(?)

The logic if this is the judges love Simon, but he struggles to poll well even when he scores highly.  Given there are 5 really solid couples left the only way Siimon stays is if he finishes top 2.  If he doesn't finish top 2, the public will get him bottom 2 in the combined vote.   So I definitely think the elimination bet is good here at 6/1.  Mark could easily bounce out of the bottom 2 so think opposing him is right for the elimination.  

I also think the top scorer is fine, judges really want to keep him, he has dances that suit.

So think it makes sense.  Definitely back the elimination, but back him top scorer as well.  Full Eso in the same week.  Has to be done, even if it seems absolutely loopy.   Would be the greatest double ever if we got a lot of tied scores.  Will give Eso a break too, because at least he had the decency to spread his bets out.  

[Eso Kral]

Strictly.

I'll answer Tighty's questions as best as I can. I would expect the judges' scores would include the Waltzathon and would bet on that basis. It's why Pixie is 2/1 jolly, because she will be close to a lock to win the formation dance.

For those who don't know what I'm on about (careful...), in addition to the normal one dance each, the couples will take to the floor together and everyone will perform a waltz at the same time. This is how competition dances happen and will be entirely familiar to the professionals.



That floor is huge. The Strictly studio floor isn't. Clashes happen and the man will need to ensure he steers his partner out of harm's way (it's not really possible for the woman, who is facing the wrong way, more often than not). It is possible that the male professional dancers will dance towards the male celebrity dancers to make them make mistakes, but I wouldn't think that's all that likely (you could find the public don't like that and scupper your own chances).

One celeb has the best ballroom footwork I've ever seen from any celeb on Strictly and that is Simon. Simon is 9/2 to finish top tonight and I like that. He has an American Smooth (which is foxtrot based) as well. I reckon 44 (out of 46) will be needed to finish top.

I agree with Tighty in that Frankie might be the one to struggle today. That salsa footage isn't very promising, although she is often someone who strikes in the week and improves on Saturday. Kevin refuses to dance down and her legs aren't as nice as the judges coo about really; she doesn't have a lot of power in them and her arms aren't that nice. Don't get me wrong, she's an excellent dancer, but we have to look at small things now, because there's not much in it between them. The song is a producer choice and utterly ridiculous (more Bovril than salsa), so I'm tempted to have a little bet on her to go this weekend at 33/1.

As for elimination, Mark is 4/9 and that's obvious. He's the worst dancer left. To oppose that, you have to think about who might be there if Mark gets lots of votes and avoids the bottom two. Pixie won't be there. Caroline had the grace and balance of a weeble but no one seems to care. Jake might get a bit of a vote bounce from last week with the judges. Simon would be the logical shot. If he finishes midtable, he'll be in danger because there are not all that many votes out there for him. It's a shame, because I've warmed to him in the last few weeks. Way less grumpy. Maybe circumstances in his personal life have changed? Anyway, if it's him and Frankie, say, in the bottom two, he's in trouble. He's 5/1 to be eliminated. The most logical way he doesn't finish in the bottom two is if he's right at the top of the board and has too many points to drop down, because he's sure to be no better than fourth with the public and probably lower.

Team Maths and I had a chat about this last night. The Eso Bet seems logical: Simon to finish top 9/2 with Chorals and to be eliminated at 6/1 with Shouty Red Man. £20 each, unless doobs thinks we should factor in the dead heat at the top(?)

The logic if this is the judges love Simon, but he struggles to poll well even when he scores highly.  Given there are 5 really solid couples left the only way Siimon stays is if he finishes top 2.  If he doesn't finish top 2, the public will get him bottom 2 in the combined vote.   So I definitely think the elimination bet is good here at 6/1.  Mark could easily bounce out of the bottom 2 so think opposing him is right for the elimination.  

I also think the top scorer is fine, judges really want to keep him, he has dances that suit.

So think it makes sense.  Definitely back the elimination, but back him top scorer as well.  Full Eso in the same week.  Has to be done, even if it seems absolutely loopy.   Would be the greatest double ever if we got a lot of tied scores.  Will give Eso a break too, because at least he had the decency to spread his bets out.  

Lol at giving Eso a break

<3 Doobs!

[sonour]

I would like to take this opportunity to wish everyone at TfT a very happy "Invincibles Day" 2014/15.

lolzzzz.  Did fred lay Chelski to stay unbeaten at 8/1 in the end?

Actually liking your mob today Ralph against my mob odds against even though Wenger hates the Brit.  Can't remember arsenal ever going off anywhere near to 5/4 at Stoke.  Stoke are struggling this year.

Thanks arbboy

[Tal]

Strictly.

I'll answer Tighty's questions as best as I can. I would expect the judges' scores would include the Waltzathon and would bet on that basis. It's why Pixie is 2/1 jolly, because she will be close to a lock to win the formation dance.

For those who don't know what I'm on about (careful...), in addition to the normal one dance each, the couples will take to the floor together and everyone will perform a waltz at the same time. This is how competition dances happen and will be entirely familiar to the professionals.



That floor is huge. The Strictly studio floor isn't. Clashes happen and the man will need to ensure he steers his partner out of harm's way (it's not really possible for the woman, who is facing the wrong way, more often than not). It is possible that the male professional dancers will dance towards the male celebrity dancers to make them make mistakes, but I wouldn't think that's all that likely (you could find the public don't like that and scupper your own chances).

One celeb has the best ballroom footwork I've ever seen from any celeb on Strictly and that is Simon. Simon is 9/2 to finish top tonight and I like that. He has an American Smooth (which is foxtrot based) as well. I reckon 44 (out of 46) will be needed to finish top.

I agree with Tighty in that Frankie might be the one to struggle today. That salsa footage isn't very promising, although she is often someone who strikes in the week and improves on Saturday. Kevin refuses to dance down and her legs aren't as nice as the judges coo about really; she doesn't have a lot of power in them and her arms aren't that nice. Don't get me wrong, she's an excellent dancer, but we have to look at small things now, because there's not much in it between them. The song is a producer choice and utterly ridiculous (more Bovril than salsa), so I'm tempted to have a little bet on her to go this weekend at 33/1.

As for elimination, Mark is 4/9 and that's obvious. He's the worst dancer left. To oppose that, you have to think about who might be there if Mark gets lots of votes and avoids the bottom two. Pixie won't be there. Caroline had the grace and balance of a weeble but no one seems to care. Jake might get a bit of a vote bounce from last week with the judges. Simon would be the logical shot. If he finishes midtable, he'll be in danger because there are not all that many votes out there for him. It's a shame, because I've warmed to him in the last few weeks. Way less grumpy. Maybe circumstances in his personal life have changed? Anyway, if it's him and Frankie, say, in the bottom two, he's in trouble. He's 5/1 to be eliminated. The most logical way he doesn't finish in the bottom two is if he's right at the top of the board and has too many points to drop down, because he's sure to be no better than fourth with the public and probably lower.

Team Maths and I had a chat about this last night. The Eso Bet seems logical: Simon to finish top 9/2 with Chorals and to be eliminated at 6/1 with Shouty Red Man. £20 each, unless doobs thinks we should factor in the dead heat at the top(?)

Yet to read it, but that any red blooded male that could be writing this at 3.20 on a Saturday tells me enough about Spurs fans. (For Tighty)

I posted at 2:55, five minutes before Peter Crouch scored.

"Red blooded male"? Nicest thing you've ever said to me

Wouldn't be surprised if there were a 40 tonight, but we'll have to see.