Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

http://www.economist.com/news/christmas-specials/21636505-how-perfectly-legal-heists-racehorse-trainer-and-former-seminarian-made-him?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/only_fools_and_horses

Thgat's a really lovely, well-written piece, & I recommend everyone should read it.

Those graphs are so telling, too.

A likeable rogue, I suppose.

Love to see that sort of stuff in the "wrong" place, such as The Economist, they filter out some of the usual hype, & the horse racing media does not seem blessed with good writers from what I can see.

[Chompy]

Yuh, guess £300 is a chunk in terms of bankroll and all that shiz, esp with a four-figure tie-up in a few weeks. Do we need a bankroll once we're proven as profitable over a period of time though? Time to loosen the grip on the bottomless pit?

Are we thinking of pulling the plug after three years? Being a pro-punterer is for life, not just for Christmas.

Why would sir want to give up? If anything I'd be looking to up the steaks x10, getting a bunch of husbands/wives for the new year and flicking it hard right in their eye.

Leave the Scouso's then, although I'll be posting rebuff whinges/brags in mid-Jan once they're on a roll and layable at 5.4 obv.

[Chompy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfPpBpDaSXE

[BigAdz]

Trying to work out why Liverpool are a similar price to Soton and Spurs for top six, but markedly bigger for top four.

They were impressive yesterday, although Brendan looks like he could do with a holiday, and 9-1 top four looks interesting given what's coming up over Christmas.

They're 4-5 at Burnley, 4-6 home v Swansea and 1-3 home v Leicester. Southampton and Tottenham have much tougher stints.

The 9-1 in a few spots beats the machine and this feels like a good spot for a trade if we fancy it?

Suggest £300 at 9-1 with a view to laying back at shorter in the new year.

Think this is the only one I have not actioned, so I'll send the Hossie Pass across to Tighty to sort in the morning.

£300 on "Reliable" Liverpool, sheesh.

Assuming we can get on, it would cost £2700 to lay this back right now.  Laying off might cost more or less than this in 3 games time.

If we start and end on the machine we start with a shorter price, but at least we don't tie up £3k or more til June? 

We have a trading bank of 6k(?) of which 4k(?) is tied up already.  The price on Liverpool looks like it could be ok, but surely we can't trade it from this start point? 

I actually thought about this in bed last night, in that we back Chompy "blind", & I don't want to give offence, but my real concern is tying up all that money for so long.

We should probably back him blind and I am close to that.  But even if you aren't worried about the death thing, there should be a cost on tying up that money in the long run.  If I asked everyone how much we are likely to make on that 6k, not many will say less than £600,  but that is 10% of the bank.  But if we start at that low point, there is still a cost of 5% to tie up £3k for 6 months.  So we should start this trade assuming it costs us at least £150.  That looks less than the expected profit on the bet to me.

So If you do that the proposal looks bad.   But as a bet you tie up £300 for 6 months, the hurdle to beat is only £15, and I can see how you could make more than 5% on that money.  Ofc £300 may still be too much but that is a different argument. 

Yes, Fred backs him "blind", & quite rightly so.

Even £300 for 4 or 5 months is a lot, but yeah, it could win us a lot of money, & we could manage £300 on our Main Accounts. I doubt RedShoutyMan would allow us £300, mind. Wm Hill would, & is funded accordingly. 

Fred is now just one month shy of it's 3rd Birthday (late January), & I need to think very hard as to whether things should continue as they are, that's the thing at the back of my mind, in truth, before I commit to more long-term stuff.

I would hope this isn't the case.

Much as I take the piss over all the "non sporting" stuff a few here thrive on, there is still as wealth of info here and good people, that would fall away quite quickly, I suspect, were you to leave the thread.

The reality, whether people openly agree or not, is that we all like the general pat on the back, but most especially the Tikay nod of recognition. I'm sure none of us know why, but is probably fact, nonetheless.

The thread is about tips, and its also about you.

I know a couple of very knowledgeable gents who only post BECAUSE of your involvement now.

Lets keep it going, and remember, every family has squabbles. Its part of the fun, even if it doesn't seem so at the time.

[horseplayer]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfPpBpDaSXE

not clicked but 1.01 its the "you are an under achiever Harvey" clip

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £262.12

Outstanding Bets £3903.95

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=33

A profit of £50 yesterday

Chelsea beating Stoke 2-0, a profit of £30 on the pre-game part of the bet365 offer. Stoke tried roughing them up, and with matic brilliant and about ten feet wide, Chelsea rolled their sleeves up and dealt with it with the MOF

Click to see full-size image.

Welker receiving yards on monday night football, a profit of £20

ongoing positions

not unexpected that Stoke lost at home to Chelsea, leaves top 10 bet stoke 13th, 3 points off 10th

A Mourinho team  is leading a league at Xmas for the 8th time. He's won the title all 7 previous times with Porto, Chelsea, Inter Milan & Real Madrid.

Click to see full-size image.

the Bengals 37-28 victory over the Broncos sent them into the play offs and back to the head of the AFC North division with a week to go

Click to see full-size image.

Pittsburgh host the Bengals on Sunday, a win for either side wins them the division and a home play off game. We are on Pittsburgh for division and conference

the bare data looks good for us

Team who play Week 16 on MNF & play next Sunday in the final week fo the season on the road as a dog of >1 pt? 0 wins 9 losses 1-8 ATS

Darts

the next game for one of our players is

Saturday 27 December

Evening Session

22:15 Gary Anderson (4) (Sco) v Jelle Klaasen (29) (Ned)

the quarter finals do not begin until new years day! goes on for ages

NBA

Chicago Bulls beat Toronto Raptors 129-120 in a battle of two teams we have positions on

Click to see full-size image.

Portland tralblazers lost to Houston 110-95

Dallas Mavs lost to the Atlanta Hawks 105-102. Rajan Rondo got another 11 assists

San Antonio Spurs beat the LA Clippers 125-118 in another game where we have bets on both

Click to see full-size image.

 

[tikay]

Yuh, guess £300 is a chunk in terms of bankroll and all that shiz, esp with a four-figure tie-up in a few weeks. Do we need a bankroll once we're proven as profitable over a period of time though? Time to loosen the grip on the bottomless pit?

Are we thinking of pulling the plug after three years? Being a pro-punterer is for life, not just for Christmas.

Why would sir want to give up? If anything I'd be looking to up the steaks x10, getting a bunch of husbands/wives for the new year and flicking it hard right in their eye.

Leave the Scouso's then, although I'll be posting rebuff whinges/brags in mid-Jan once they're on a roll and layable at 5.4 obv.

Ha!

The bet might still get placed, it's not rejected yet, but I'd rather await Tighty's view, as he sort of manages the bankrolls in the various accounts with great care. Maybe we could invest a lesser sum?

Sadly, I don't have many wives, & only one gf, & I don't really want to get into the multiple accounts area, it sits uncomfortably with me, to be honest. I don't have any moral position on others doing it, it is just a bit awkward for me in various ways.

It might be time for a change of Management in Fred though, freshen things up, get a new person to be in charge. Tighty & I nattered about it recently, think he is in the same boat as me. It's all sort of bittersweet really, so much to like & enjoy, such a nice bunch of people, but oh, the hassle, which has cost me friendships & placed me in some really uncomfy spots.   

Each morning I like to clear my overnight e-Mails & al the hassly stuff from work & elsewhere, then I look forward to getting me a fresh coffee & reading Tighty's Daily Report - they really are quite exceptional (imo), & because we see them daily, we should not take their quality for granted, he somehow manages to squeeze a wry laconic line or two into every one. The whole thing, for me, is the "fun" factor. Nothing else, nothing else at all.

Anyway, we shall see, like Fred Founder Mr Camel, I need to ruminate.

[tikay]

Trying to work out why Liverpool are a similar price to Soton and Spurs for top six, but markedly bigger for top four.

They were impressive yesterday, although Brendan looks like he could do with a holiday, and 9-1 top four looks interesting given what's coming up over Christmas.

They're 4-5 at Burnley, 4-6 home v Swansea and 1-3 home v Leicester. Southampton and Tottenham have much tougher stints.

The 9-1 in a few spots beats the machine and this feels like a good spot for a trade if we fancy it?

Suggest £300 at 9-1 with a view to laying back at shorter in the new year.

Think this is the only one I have not actioned, so I'll send the Hossie Pass across to Tighty to sort in the morning.

£300 on "Reliable" Liverpool, sheesh.

Assuming we can get on, it would cost £2700 to lay this back right now.  Laying off might cost more or less than this in 3 games time.

If we start and end on the machine we start with a shorter price, but at least we don't tie up £3k or more til June? 

We have a trading bank of 6k(?) of which 4k(?) is tied up already.  The price on Liverpool looks like it could be ok, but surely we can't trade it from this start point? 

I actually thought about this in bed last night, in that we back Chompy "blind", & I don't want to give offence, but my real concern is tying up all that money for so long.

We should probably back him blind and I am close to that.  But even if you aren't worried about the death thing, there should be a cost on tying up that money in the long run.  If I asked everyone how much we are likely to make on that 6k, not many will say less than £600,  but that is 10% of the bank.  But if we start at that low point, there is still a cost of 5% to tie up £3k for 6 months.  So we should start this trade assuming it costs us at least £150.  That looks less than the expected profit on the bet to me.

So If you do that the proposal looks bad.   But as a bet you tie up £300 for 6 months, the hurdle to beat is only £15, and I can see how you could make more than 5% on that money.  Ofc £300 may still be too much but that is a different argument. 

Yes, Fred backs him "blind", & quite rightly so.

Even £300 for 4 or 5 months is a lot, but yeah, it could win us a lot of money, & we could manage £300 on our Main Accounts. I doubt RedShoutyMan would allow us £300, mind. Wm Hill would, & is funded accordingly. 

Fred is now just one month shy of it's 3rd Birthday (late January), & I need to think very hard as to whether things should continue as they are, that's the thing at the back of my mind, in truth, before I commit to more long-term stuff.

I would hope this isn't the case.

Much as I take the piss over all the "non sporting" stuff a few here thrive on, there is still as wealth of info here and good people, that would fall away quite quickly, I suspect, were you to leave the thread.

The reality, whether people openly agree or not, is that we all like the general pat on the back, but most especially the Tikay nod of recognition. I'm sure none of us know why, but is probably fact, nonetheless.

The thread is about tips, and its also about you.

I know a couple of very knowledgeable gents who only post BECAUSE of your involvement now.

Lets keep it going, and remember, every family has squabbles. Its part of the fun, even if it doesn't seem so at the time.

Thank you very much Adzy.

Banter? The more the merrier, especially about novelty shizz. Half the pleasure, to me, is the banter, together with the esprit de corps.

A pat on the back from me? I'm very surprised that has much weight, but, when time (& memory) allows, I thank every single person who gives us a winner. In fact, so much so, that when I fail to, some take offence. It's not intentional. Work has been very heavy of late, with UKPC & stuff, my mental faculties are not quite what they were, & I'm trying to spend a little less time on the internet these days. (FAIL).

We accidentally "miss" occasional bets, too - but never, NEVER intentionally. It just happens, Tighty is dead busy with other stuff, so am I.

I do want to keep it going, so does Tighty (who carries all the load), but when it costs me friendships, & places me in really awkward spots, the meat in the sandwich between others, I am not sure I want too much more of that.

We have lost many of our Elders, of course, for a variety of reasons. That's OK, we can cope just fine without them. But it'd be great to see one or two return. I never put any pressure on any of them to return, & they are all good personal friends of mine of long-standing. They all still read Fred of course. For the avoidance of doubt, I'd be very happy to see a few of them return.

On which note, it was good to see redarmi back here recently. I hope he does not take offence, but as to his regular "tips", I'm not terribly fussed either way, but I used to love reading his technical advice, strategy stuff, that sort of thing. It was the "strategy" stuff by the Elders that formed the foundations really, I loved all that. We rarely see it now, though I suppose we have taken most of it on board. Tips tips tips is not really the full works, is it? I like to see the in-depth logic & reasoning.

"x is 5/4, get on" is of no interest to me, none at all. WHY should we get on is the important thing.

Anyway, everything is cool, I maybe need to sort my head out. In some ways, it's been a horrible year for me on Fred, truth to tell. I don't ever intend to be exposed to that again.   

Happy Christmas, every single one of you.

[Doobs]

What a silly thing to fall out over.  Hate to think this had cost you friendships, but surely it has made you friendships too?

Would be sad to see the thread go.  As well as the friendships, we must have all learned something however small, and sure most have learned loads, including me.   And love Tighty's daily reports even though I don't say it enough.  

Quite like the Liverpool bet too, they do seem a bit better now, though 5th seems inevitable.  Just don't like the trading route.   Think you are better starting at 8.4 or whatever you can get there if you intend training.

[BorntoBubble]

First thing I check in the morning and last thing I check at night. Love the reports love the insight and as ive said many times learned lots!

I also love checking the bets i miss, I do it with BE and other sources that I use as well, why do I want to know whether I would have won or not? Madness. I suppose its like the poker players who goers, oooo if I had called there I would have had a full house with my 9 3 off suit.

[tikay]

What a silly thing to fall out over.  Hate to think this had cost you friendships, but surely it has made you friendships too?

Would be sad to see the thread go.  As well as the friendships, we must have all learned something however small, and sure most have learned loads, including me.   And love Tighty's daily reports even though I don't say it enough.  

Quite like the Liverpool bet too, they do seem a bit better now, though 5th seems inevitable.  Just don't like the trading route.   Think you are better starting at 8.4 or whatever you can get there if you intend training.

Yup, & yes, it has made me new friends, as well as costing me some which were very precious to me.

Learned a bit? Yikes, TONS. Remember, I had quit punting after a lifetime as an ice cream, now we turn a consistent profit. That feels GOOD.

I could quit punting again in a heartbeat actually, I'm not even slightly addicted, unlike poker. But I do enjoy the buzz it gives me. Now & then, maybe once a week, I have a bet off thread. Just £10 or £20, thats all I need for that little buzz of adrenelin. I had 3 darts bets on Saturday, from the chap on BE, just £20 each, (2 won), & it enriched my viewing of the darts. In fact I had not even watched the darts until then. That's the thing with a bet, it makes viewing it more exciting. 

Love Tighty's reports, but don't say so often enough?

It's kinda awkward, that one. Saying "thank you Tighty" every day is a bit ott, of course it is, but any comment means he knows people are actually reading them. Which is why I often try to highlight a particular line, & ask a question. It's just psychology really, & he knows that, but he is a bit sad that he puts so much effort into them & he thinks very few appreciate them, as he judges it by amount of feedback. They are a TON of work. If I were to move on, & we found a better person to head it up, Tighty may or may not continue, I don't really know. He's the real cornerstone of Fred.

I'm glad we are discussing this in such a civil fashion, it has been weighing heavily on me of late.

Nothing has been decided, it's just thinking out loud. No drama, bla bla.

[Tal]

That's the thing with a bet, it makes viewing it more exciting.

Or to put it another way, it matters more when there's money on it. So corporate!

[tikay]

First thing I check in the morning and last thing I check at night. Love the reports love the insight and as ive said many times learned lots!

I also love checking the bets i miss, I do it with BE and other sources that I use as well, why do I want to know whether I would have won or not? Madness. I suppose its like the poker players who goers, oooo if I had called there I would have had a full house with my 9 3 off suit.

Ha! - you are one of those damn rabbit-hunters.

Ali Bag of Bollocks, at Gala Notts, was the Rabbit Hunter Daddy. He plays at DTD these days.

He'd go through the burn cards, the muck, & every remaning card in the deck until he found "his" card.

SEE I WOULDA WON.

[tikay]

That's the thing with a bet, it makes viewing it more exciting.

Or to put it another way, it matters more when there's money on it. So corporate!

Very good, you know your Sky Bet adverts. That place is buzzing right now, what with the takeover & everything, & at this time of year, they unveil their new propositons.

Making betting better

[TightEnd]

One thing i bookmarked last week was as follows

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/sport/do-christmas-fixtures-favour-the-bigger-teams

the thought being that the teams have to play two games in three days this week, then turn round and do the same next week

the bigger teams have more competitive squad depth, so have an inbuilt advantage over the bottom half teams when turning around playing sunday after the firday, as they do on the 28th this year

"Top sides have played less than 30 festive matches split by just one day of full rest over the last decade of the EPL. Therefore when considering this data, bettors shouldn’t ignore the importance of chance or the strength of schedule.

The implied odds suggest that 17 of 26 such matches played over the last decade would have been won by the top side against weaker opposition. In reality 22 matches were won, an impressive 84.6% of games. "

so, for example, this might play to the Liverpool bet..if they get 7 points of 9 over xmas playing squads with weaker depth, they shorten for top 4 perhaps...

it also might tell you to do ice-cream multiples on the big teams on sunday 28th...


--

this got me to thinking also for FA Cup weekend, which is two days after the Xmas period. got to expect a lot of premier league reserve teams out

my view has been that if you aren't going for top 6 and aren't in danger of relegation, you should try hard to win the FA Cup

however there are comparatively few teams you can say that about. One analyst looked yesterday and said in his opinion that only 3 teams have a less than 5% chance of not being in top 6 or bottom 3 : they were newcastle/everton/stoke

so if we leave those 3 out, then we can look for upsets in the rest

leaving out all premier league ties


Tranmere V Swansea

Man City V Sheff Wed
   
West Brom V Gateshead

Dover V Crystal Palace

Sunderland V Leeds

Aston Villa V Blackpool

Southampton V Ipswich

Wimbledon V Liverpool

Yeovil V Man Utd

Chelsea V Watford


not much to go at there possibly, but i will be watching to see if teams are going to be resting a load of players. at first glance ipswich going to southampton, leeds going to sunderland went into my notebook