Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £262.12

Outstanding Bets £3903.95

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=33


No bets completed yesterday

ongoing positions

Stephen Bunting's quest to be dual World Champion continues after a 3-1 win v Robert Marijanovic.

Click to see full-size image.

the NFL Pro Bowl roster is announced. Only three rookies on it, one of whom is our 20-1 defensive rookie of the year bet Aaron Donald

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000448750/article/rookie-watch-2015-pro-bowl-picks-and-snubs?campaign=Twitter_atl

" Aaron Donald, defensive tackle, Rams: Worthy of Defensive Rookie of the Year honors, Donald has graded higher than All-Pro Gerald McCoy and every other player at his position, per PFF. His eight sacks -- third among all interior defenders -- are more than fellow first-rounders Khalil Mack and C.J. Mosley combined.

Donald popped off the screen from the start because of his speed at the line and ability to dominate one-on-one matchups. Giants fullback Henry Hynoski played with Donald at Pittsburgh, recalling that "you lined him up, and nobody could really block him." Only Marcell Dareus has more stops on the season than Donald (33), who also ranks second behind just J.J. Watt in tackles for loss (18). With moves like these below, Donald has the look of an annual Pro Bowl defender."

Aaron Donald has 39 total pressures this year. That's the most for a rookie defensive tackle since Ndamukong Suh's 41 in 2010.

the pro bowl is voted on by fans, coaches and players not the media as the player of the year votes are, but is nevertheless confirmation that we have to be in with a shout of this

NBA

Cleveland Cavs beat the Minnesota Tmberwolves 125-104

Andrew Wiggins scored 27 of Minnesota's points

Click to see full-size image.

"The Cavaliers knew what they were doing when they selected Andrew Wiggins with the No. 1 pick in this past summer’s NBA Draft.

Wiggins is likely going to be an all-star player for years to come.

He showed flashes of brilliance Tuesday at Quicken Loans Arena for the Minnesota Timberwolves, but was overshadowed by three established all-stars: LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving.

The Cavaliers “Big Three” combined to score 73 points to secure a 125-104 victory that sent an amped up capacity crowd home happy."

Chicago Bulls beat Washington 99-91

Atlanta Hawks beat the LA Clippers 107-104

Portland Trailblazers beat Oklahoma City 115-111 in OT

Lilliard scored 40 points

Click to see full-size image.

Phoenix beat the Dallas Mavs 125-114

Rajon Rondo fouled out with 13 points, 8 assists, 6 rebounds, 1 steal and 5 turnovers.

Click to see full-size image.

Don't go backing against Chelsea too quick. Matic wants the quadruple

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Polite request...

Would everyone mind not hitting 180s, please?

The cover shot is hugely underrated, IMO. Got to get that odd number score sometime or you can't finish on a double.

Thanks in advance.

after the first round, how many have been scored?

pro-rata are we ahead of or behind the curve?

[TightEnd]

Not happy about leaving this Posh/Donny match bet hanging, given how crap we are.

At the risk of going all Walsall on thread's ass, let's have £40 on Posh to finish in the bottom half, 9-2 with BMU. It's 5-1 with the £800m-valued tiddlarse bookmaking giants, but obv we can't use them. 9-2 is too big anyway.

We play Chesterfield @ their place on Boxing Day, before the big one at home v Donny next weekend.

Fergie is lining up one of his 'out-of-position' masterclasses for Friday and two defeats from two games is very possible.

CMS has been recalled, Maddison still isn't ready, while Nthle and Zakuani both have knocks.

It's looking like RB playing at LB, midfielder playing at RB (Bostwick is one of Fergie's pets, so has to go in somewhere), with one of the trio of strikers who were basically told they're not good enough by the CMS/McLean loan deals brought back in.

Doncaster are around 11-8 to finish in the top half and there might be some mileage in this too, given they play terrible Cov on Boxing Day before coming to our place next Sunday.

But we'll stick with Posh to finish bottom half. It's still such a good bet; we get outclassed against the top teams in the division and outbattled by the stragglers.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Bottom Half Finish - 2014/15 Peterborough (Specials - Specials) Odds: 9/2 Stake: 40.00 Possible Return:  220.00

[Tal]

http://www.dartsdatabase.co.uk/FixtureList.aspx?EventKey=5664&show180s=Y

Just got my abacus out and I make that 205 maximums (numbers in brackets) in the last 64 and a further 11 in the preliminary round, making 216 at the Christmas turn.

Last year, there were 208 maximums in the first round proper, but only 6 in the preliminary, so a total of 214.

http://www.dartsdatabase.co.uk/EventResults.aspx?EventKey=4486&show180s=Y

Fans of geometric series will know this means we're over halfway through the matches but the matches get longer and the standard better.

2015: 216
2014: 214
2013: 190
2012: 234
2011: 181

Bet is always live, but if the heavy maximum people go deep, it's going to be more difficult than if the likes of Taylor and Wade do well.

[BigAdz]

In the spirit of Eso-Chompy, you may as well cover the other side of the flip, Tal......

[horseplayer]

Disagree with Lord Chompeh re Cov

4 clean sheets in last 7 games only one defeat since October. A team to have a better second half of the season imo

[TightEnd]

The next daily report will be Saturday 27th, covering all the Boxing day action

if anyone has any ideas for Boxing day, such as the King George or other racing

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2014-12-26-kempton

or Boxing day football, premier league, football league etc

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league

three test matches start on boxing day

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/australia-v-india

there's a rugby programme over xmas

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/uk-ireland/aviva-premiership

the second round of the darts begins on saturday

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-world-championship


then i am around most of the day





 

[Tal]

In the spirit of Eso-Chompy, you may as well cover the other side of the flip, Tal......

No esochomping required. Be nice if we got to the final and there was a good number for us to sweat.

You can see from last year that it can really swing on who is left in the tournament:

Quarter Final
(6)   Peter Wright   5 V 4   Wes Newton   (12)
(15)   Simon Whitlock   5 V 4   Ian White   (12)
(9)   Michael van Gerwen   5 V 3   Mark Webster   (4)
(7)   Adrian Lewis   5 V 1   James Wade   (6)
         
Semi Final
(5)   Peter Wright   6 V 2   Simon Whitlock   (6)
(6)   Michael van Gerwen   6 V 0   Adrian Lewis   (6)
         
Final
(16)   Michael van Gerwen   7 V 4   Peter Wright   (6)

[tikay]

Not happy about leaving this Posh/Donny match bet hanging, given how crap we are.

At the risk of going all Walsall on thread's ass, let's have £40 on Posh to finish in the bottom half, 9-2 with BMU. It's 5-1 with the £800m-valued tiddlarse bookmaking giants, but obv we can't use them. 9-2 is too big anyway.

We play Chesterfield @ their place on Boxing Day, before the big one at home v Donny next weekend.

Fergie is lining up one of his 'out-of-position' masterclasses for Friday and two defeats from two games is very possible.

CMS has been recalled, Maddison still isn't ready, while Nthle and Zakuani both have knocks.

It's looking like RB playing at LB, midfielder playing at RB (Bostwick is one of Fergie's pets, so has to go in somewhere), with one of the trio of strikers who were basically told they're not good enough by the CMS/McLean loan deals brought back in.

Doncaster are around 11-8 to finish in the top half and there might be some mileage in this too, given they play terrible Cov on Boxing Day before coming to our place next Sunday.

But we'll stick with Posh to finish bottom half. It's still such a good bet; we get outclassed against the top teams in the division and outbattled by the stragglers.

Eso is going to be so jealous.

It will soon be known as "The Full Chompy".

Ridic.

[tikay]

Evening

No racing for two days. Its a good thing this isn't hand written, as I have the shakes already.

I know you don't like multiples etc, but I do like a couple of the double related offers up for grabs on the King George/Gold Cup double.

With Ruby not sending out much positive about Champagne Fever, I can't realistically see beyond Silviniaco Conti and Al Ferof to win on Friday.

A win for either, at this stage will likely make SC, even shorter vfafor the GC than the current 8-1, and Al Ferof a whole lot shorter.

Bet 653 offer 20-1 on the double for SC, and Billy offer 66-1 for Alf.

Now, we all know that Many Clouds will win the Gold Cup, but it could be that a disgruntled anti Sherwood fan, lasers blinds him on the run in, or Nichols and Mullins do a Golden Freeze and try to knobble him, so it makes sense to have a little cover bet.

Not sure what you can get on with either, but a token tenner on each should give another arrow in the quiver, come Gold Cup day.

God bless Wm Hill, they are as good as gold.

We have a token £10 WIN DOUBLE, Wm Hill, Al Ferof to win the KG & Chelters Gold Cup.



26 Dec 2014 - To Win 2014 William Hill King George VI Chase & 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup - Outright

Al Ferof @ 66/1

Stake : £10.00


Estimated Returns : £

670.00



Transaction Reference:

O/0457483/0001162/F

BET PLACED

If you really want a mad one, what about Cue Card?  Best chaser in training over the King George distance on his day.  Always been a bit unreliable and definitely wants it too soft.   Such a classy animal when on fire.  The Gold Cup is a massive ask for him, but the King George clearly isn't and the combined bet is 66/1 with Hills.   Could be a hell of a sweat after 2.5 miles in the Gold Cup as you are praying he lasts home.  

Have flung a free bet at it.

Guess if we are attempting to cover the whole field, we ought to include that, even if it is only a tenner.

I'll leave it to Tighty, but I think it worthwhile.

[tikay]

One other thing mate, if you want to bet the Liverpool suggestion and want to lay it back at a later date but don't want to tie up the funds then I can process the lay back for you and settle up after the season.

Very kind of you Phil, ta, but the bet has been abandoned now.

[TightEnd]

I tried to do the Cue Card double, 7-1 for friday, 16-1 for the gold cup but couldn't see how to place it

it paid more than 66-1 anyway, in theory


26 Dec 2014 - To Win 2014 William Hill King George VI Chase & 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup - Outright

Cue Card @ 66/1

Stake : £10.00
Estimated Returns : £
670.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001165/F

[tikay]

I tried to do the Cue Card double, 7-1 for friday, 16-1 for the gold cup but couldn't see how to place itit paid more than 66-1 anyway, in theory


26 Dec 2014 - To Win 2014 William Hill King George VI Chase & 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup - Outright

Cue Card @ 66/1

Stake : £10.00
Estimated Returns : £
670.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001165/F

I doubt it is available as a "regular" double, Rich, as it would be one of those related whatsits.

[tikay]

Nobody think chelsea are so so short to win the league?
Man City have kompany aguero etc to return in January.

I'm really the only one?!
Man City on a very good run.

Hi exstream,

No, not the only one, swinebag chimed in with some feedback, so you were not ignored.

If you don't mind me saying so, with ideas like that, you'll get more bounce if you include some background, & logic.

What price are Chelsea?

What price should they be? Why?

Ditto Man C, what current price, & what you think it should be.

An Oddschecker link helps, too, & some reasoning.

You'll get far more feedback if you give more detail. 

PS - thanks for all the tips, keep them coming.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

I can't find a bet that I like in the teeny tiny people v New Zealand test series, Sangakarra is way too short.

However I do have one for the 3rd test between India and Australia. In the last test at this ground England and Australia managed 3 scores in the 200's before Australia won the match by getting 231-2 in the last innings. Batsmen struggled for runs and it was very attritional. India have the look of a beaten, unhappy team. They have complained about the food, the pitches and anything else they can think of. I can see them capitulating.

We are in good shape with our series top batsman and he could go well here as he seems to be relishing the job. However I think the value bet could be to back Dhoni to top score. He has been injured and missed the first test, and did little in the 2nd. But if he finds the team 130-5 or so when he comes in he may decide to shoulder some responsibility.

Stan James have him at 12-1, but I am happy to take the generally available 10-1.

Suggest Dhoni £10 @ 10-1 top 1st innings scorer with Ladbrokes, coral, hills, betfred