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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16369393 times)
DungBeetle
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« Reply #92835 on: December 24, 2014, 11:54:03 AM »

I know there are a few on here that rate Bournemouth very highly, but I checked the championship odds for the first time in a while and was astounded to see Bournemouth odds on to go up and 5/2 to win the league.  Give how close it is and the strength of some teams around them I think this is far too short.  You could throw a blanket over the top 6, plus I expect Norwich/Blackburn to pile the pressure on those above them in the next few months.

Anyone agree with this?  To me the huge wins at Blackpool and Birmingham who are/were both in chaos has distorted the view of the market.

Not sure how best to approach this if people are of similar mindset.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #92836 on: December 24, 2014, 11:58:22 AM »

Morning Mr T.

I can't find a bet that I like in the teeny tiny people v New Zealand test series, Sangakarra is way too short.

However I do have one for the 3rd test between India and Australia. In the last test at this ground England and Australia managed 3 scores in the 200's before Australia won the match by getting 231-2 in the last innings. Batsmen struggled for runs and it was very attritional. India have the look of a beaten, unhappy team. They have complained about the food, the pitches and anything else they can think of. I can see them capitulating.

We are in good shape with our series top batsman and he could go well here as he seems to be relishing the job. However I think the value bet could be to back Dhoni to top score. He has been injured and missed the first test, and did little in the 2nd. But if he finds the team 130-5 or so when he comes in he may decide to shoulder some responsibility.

Stan James have him at 12-1, but I am happy to take the generally available 10-1.

Suggest Dhoni £10 @ 10-1 top 1st innings scorer with Ladbrokes, coral, hills, betfred

    
Good Luck Tony!
Event Information:    Australia v India - Top India 1st Innings Runscorer
International
2014-12-26 00:00:00
Market:    Top India runscorer
Selection:    M Dhoni @ 10/1
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000806
Placed at:    11:26 24/12/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £10.00
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £10.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £10.00
   
   
   £110.00

this was a good preview, which happens to back up your general thoughts

http://www.news.com.au/sport/cricket/cricket-great-matthew-hayden-recalls-his-boxing-day-memories-and-breaks-down-this-years-test/story-fndpt0dy-1227166130590
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TightEnd
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« Reply #92837 on: December 24, 2014, 12:01:43 PM »

On Chelsea, can we seriously see them dropping enough points not to win the league?

i can't. rock solid at the back, many many midfield options, three goalscorers to put in

yes the price factors this all in but where do they drop enough points to fall behind city?

they don't, clearly the best team in the league, very adapatable, huge experience, best manager...i just wouldn't take them on


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« Reply #92838 on: December 24, 2014, 12:01:58 PM »

BMU have a special for Boxing Day Premier games - 7/1 for there to be more than 34 goals scored.

There are 10 games. There were 29 goals last year and that included a 5-1 win for Newcastle over Stoke, and a 3-2 win for ManUre at Hull.

I can't see where 34 goals will come from so looks very short to me. Any thoughts?
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TightEnd
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« Reply #92839 on: December 24, 2014, 12:04:09 PM »

I know there are a few on here that rate Bournemouth very highly, but I checked the championship odds for the first time in a while and was astounded to see Bournemouth odds on to go up and 5/2 to win the league.  Give how close it is and the strength of some teams around them I think this is far too short.  You could throw a blanket over the top 6, plus I expect Norwich/Blackburn to pile the pressure on those above them in the next few months.

Anyone agree with this?  To me the huge wins at Blackpool and Birmingham who are/were both in chaos has distorted the view of the market.

Not sure how best to approach this if people are of similar mindset.

four points covers the top six. looks very short but no idea what to do about it as its going to be volatile with everyone taking points off everyone else.

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TightEnd
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« Reply #92840 on: December 24, 2014, 12:08:45 PM »

BMU have a special for Boxing Day Premier games - 7/1 for there to be more than 34 goals scored.

There are 10 games. There were 29 goals last year and that included a 5-1 win for Newcastle over Stoke, and a 3-2 win for ManUre at Hull.

I can't see where 34 goals will come from so looks very short to me. Any thoughts?

would have been good value in 50 years ago




to your point, would want more than 7/1 this year i think. ice cream offer from bv :-)
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« Reply #92841 on: December 24, 2014, 12:12:30 PM »

BMU have a special for Boxing Day Premier games - 7/1 for there to be more than 34 goals scored.

There are 10 games. There were 29 goals last year and that included a 5-1 win for Newcastle over Stoke, and a 3-2 win for ManUre at Hull.

I can't see where 34 goals will come from so looks very short to me. Any thoughts?

would have been good value in 50 years ago




to your point, would want more than 7/1 this year i think. ice cream offer from bv :-)

Haha yes I'd just seen that too!
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #92842 on: December 24, 2014, 12:12:50 PM »

I know there are a few on here that rate Bournemouth very highly, but I checked the championship odds for the first time in a while and was astounded to see Bournemouth odds on to go up and 5/2 to win the league.  Give how close it is and the strength of some teams around them I think this is far too short.  You could throw a blanket over the top 6, plus I expect Norwich/Blackburn to pile the pressure on those above them in the next few months.

Anyone agree with this?  To me the huge wins at Blackpool and Birmingham who are/were both in chaos has distorted the view of the market.

Not sure how best to approach this if people are of similar mindset.

four points covers the top six. looks very short but no idea what to do about it as its going to be volatile with everyone taking points off everyone else.



No idea what liquidity is like on Betfair, but odds on for promotion would seem a lay to me.  And Boro for that matter!  We best leave it for other feeback though I think as I know people watch Boro and the Cherries regularly on here.
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Tal
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« Reply #92843 on: December 24, 2014, 12:19:28 PM »

BMU have a special for Boxing Day Premier games - 7/1 for there to be more than 34 goals scored.

There are 10 games. There were 29 goals last year and that included a 5-1 win for Newcastle over Stoke, and a 3-2 win for ManUre at Hull.

I can't see where 34 goals will come from so looks very short to me. Any thoughts?

would have been good value in 50 years ago




to your point, would want more than 7/1 this year i think. ice cream offer from bv :-)

That was the last time Wenger got his wish over fixture congestion granted.
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« Reply #92844 on: December 24, 2014, 12:22:43 PM »

I know there are a few on here that rate Bournemouth very highly, but I checked the championship odds for the first time in a while and was astounded to see Bournemouth odds on to go up and 5/2 to win the league.  Give how close it is and the strength of some teams around them I think this is far too short.  You could throw a blanket over the top 6, plus I expect Norwich/Blackburn to pile the pressure on those above them in the next few months.

Anyone agree with this?  To me the huge wins at Blackpool and Birmingham who are/were both in chaos has distorted the view of the market.

Not sure how best to approach this if people are of similar mindset.

four points covers the top six. looks very short but no idea what to do about it as its going to be volatile with everyone taking points off everyone else.



Team top at xmas has been promoted last 7 seasons

Not that is has massive relevance to this season
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tikay
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« Reply #92845 on: December 24, 2014, 12:24:15 PM »

BMU have a special for Boxing Day Premier games - 7/1 for there to be more than 34 goals scored.

There are 10 games. There were 29 goals last year and that included a 5-1 win for Newcastle over Stoke, and a 3-2 win for ManUre at Hull.

I can't see where 34 goals will come from so looks very short to me. Any thoughts?

would have been good value in 50 years ago




to your point, would want more than 7/1 this year i think. ice cream offer from bv :-)

That was the last time Wenger got his wish over fixture congestion granted.

They played 2 days later, away to Birmingham City, & knocked in 4. Wink

Earelier in the season, they had a 4-4 affair with 'Spurs, probably the last time 'Spurs scored 4 in a game, perhaps?

This site is a corker. What a thing the internet is.

http://www.espn.co.uk/football/sport/match/index.html?event=3;season=1963%2F64;team=240
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« Reply #92846 on: December 24, 2014, 12:24:48 PM »

I tried to do the Cue Card double, 7-1 for friday, 16-1 for the gold cup but couldn't see how to place itit paid more than 66-1 anyway, in theory


26 Dec 2014 - To Win 2014 William Hill King George VI Chase & 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup - Outright

Cue Card @ 66/1

Stake : £10.00
Estimated Returns : £
670.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001165/F

I doubt it is available as a "regular" double, Rich, as it would be one of those related whatsits.

Posted this yesterday

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/Special-Doubles/12-00-00/To-win-both-the-King-George-VI-Chase-and-2015-Cheltenham-Gold-Cup/2014-12-26/Future-Horse-Racing-Specials-N-1z11hqpZ1z141knZ1z0xr8hZ1z10txaZ1z1413e/

If we think 66s is  a bet then its 125s with the link above
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Karabiner
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« Reply #92847 on: December 24, 2014, 12:41:24 PM »

BMU have a special for Boxing Day Premier games - 7/1 for there to be more than 34 goals scored.

There are 10 games. There were 29 goals last year and that included a 5-1 win for Newcastle over Stoke, and a 3-2 win for ManUre at Hull.

I can't see where 34 goals will come from so looks very short to me. Any thoughts?

would have been good value in 50 years ago




to your point, would want more than 7/1 this year i think. ice cream offer from bv :-)

That was the last time Wenger got his wish over fixture congestion granted.

They played 2 days later, away to Birmingham City, & knocked in 4. Wink

Earelier in the season, they had a 4-4 affair with 'Spurs, probably the last time 'Spurs scored 4 in a game, perhaps?

This site is a corker. What a thing the internet is.

http://www.espn.co.uk/football/sport/match/index.html?event=3;season=1963%2F64;team=240

I was at that home match v sp*rs which ended up 4-4.

They were leading 2-4 with ten minutes to go (a couple of goals from Jimmy Greaves iirc) and I couldn't take any more so I left the ground early. I felt like a right wally when I got home to discover that we'd scored twice in the last five minutes to salvage a draw.

I've always stayed until the final whistle since then.
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« Reply #92848 on: December 24, 2014, 12:42:46 PM »

BMU have a special for Boxing Day Premier games - 7/1 for there to be more than 34 goals scored.

There are 10 games. There were 29 goals last year and that included a 5-1 win for Newcastle over Stoke, and a 3-2 win for ManUre at Hull.

I can't see where 34 goals will come from so looks very short to me. Any thoughts?

would have been good value in 50 years ago




to your point, would want more than 7/1 this year i think. ice cream offer from bv :-)

That was the last time Wenger got his wish over fixture congestion granted.

They played 2 days later, away to Birmingham City, & knocked in 4. Wink

Earelier in the season, they had a 4-4 affair with 'Spurs, probably the last time 'Spurs scored 4 in a game, perhaps?

This site is a corker. What a thing the internet is.

http://www.espn.co.uk/football/sport/match/index.html?event=3;season=1963%2F64;team=240

Greavesy scored two at The 'Awthorns. Wouldn't mind him being around now. Getting on a bit I suppose. Spotted near Loftus Road I heard.

Everyone played on the 28th, so I assume the Woolwich game was postponed for warthogs on the pitch or celebrating Tony Adams's 30th birthday.
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« Reply #92849 on: December 24, 2014, 12:45:01 PM »

Have you changed your mind on Chadli yet Tal btw?

class act
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