Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

got some golf sweats on the go...

the hole in one wasn't too helpful though!

[Karabiner]

Any thoughts on redding out the Dodging Bullets bet for a minimal loss now that Sprinter Sacre seems a definite runner?

[BigAdz]

Liking the Jodie Kidd bet Doobs. Think she won Masterchef, and came across well on that, and a proper trier.


Been looking through the old Sprinter races. had forgotten how good he was, on all sorts of ground too.

Was one race on heavy at Cheltenham where he demolished Sommersby at 1/7, I think.

That even money is looking mighty tempting, even if it turns out he has gone.

[Tal]

Liking the Jodie Kidd bet Doobs. Think she won Masterchef, and came across well on that, and a proper trier.


Been looking through the old Sprinter races. had forgotten how good he was, on all sorts of ground too.

Was one race on heavy at Cheltenham where he demolished Sommersby at 1/7, I think.

That even money is looking mighty tempting, even if it turns out he has gone.

On this and Karabiner's points, my ice cream mind instinctively tells me every Tom, Dick and Harry will be backing the superhorse tomorrow. Evs v 11/4 can't be getting closer again, can it? Is it not more likely to be 5/6 at the off? Especially if the weather isn't as bad as anticipated earlier in the week.

[Tonibell]

Any thoughts on redding out the Dodging Bullets bet for a minimal loss now that Sprinter Sacre seems a definite runner?

Reluctant to recommend this because Lynch writes like a windbag and uses the word 'performant' but TF have some good figures on horses returning from layoffs: https://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/timeform-premium/jamie-lynch/sprinter-sacre-what-chance-of-a-return-to-his-best-160115-103.html?

Tl; dr  I think 7/2 Dodging's an OK bet just not the freeroll it might have been.

[TightEnd]

Idina Menzel of Frozen fame is singing this year's National Anthem at Super Bowl.

Click to see full-size image.

only a fortnight until we can re-energise with

- how long will the national anthem be?

renee fleming last year



alicia keys in 2013. my, she could hold a note. it went over that year



- what will katy perry wear at half time?

- and maybe some superbowl bets on the game


this (Madonna/superbowl and the Oscars) was where it all started  for this thread three years ago in January 2012

i think we need an odd prop bet in celebration...and will bump this nearer the time

 

[horseplayer]

No point in redding out the d bullets bet

As stated the bet is now bit below OK compared to could have been great

I would not take fours on ss runs even now

[BigAdz]

Any thoughts on redding out the Dodging Bullets bet for a minimal loss now that Sprinter Sacre seems a definite runner?

Reluctant to recommend this because Lynch writes like a windbag and uses the word 'performant' but TF have some good figures on horses returning from layoffs: https://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/timeform-premium/jamie-lynch/sprinter-sacre-what-chance-of-a-return-to-his-best-160115-103.html?

Tl; dr  I think 7/2 Dodging's an OK bet just not the freeroll it might have been.

The thing I think SS has in his favour, and be in no doubt, i have zero vetinary skills to speak of, is that he wasn't punished, or worn into the ground when he ailment appears.
When i watched the video earlier, it was almost like he had taken a false step rather than his heart skip skipped a beat(for the kids ).

I was taken by his trot round the other day, the horse he left for dead being no mug.

I followed horsey in, but have a similar bet on SS to win in March, so no issue either way.

One thing for sure is that the Queen Mum market will look totally different at 5pm tomorrow.

[Matt.NFFC.]

Following on from betting against my team last week and scooping, we have Derby away tomorrow.  I can't see any way whatsoever of getting a result tomorrow.

The reasons are:

Forest are on a dismal run which has lasted weeks.
Assombalonga is doubtful for the game
Pearce does not have a clue
We are in a worse state than this time last year (and we lost 5 nil at Derby)
Confidence is at an all time low
Derby are better than last season
If/when we concede, we are unable to get back into games as we are clueless.

I'd like to suggest the handicap again, this time Derby -1 @ 19/10.  I think the bookies have got it wrong because they are taking into account the local derby aspect.  The reality is we have a terrible record there and we are quite simply very poor compared to a well organised and solid Derby outfit.

Just fill your boots guys, put what you like on for the thread if you wish.   For the record, I have backed this and also a small bet on 4 - 0 Derby.

If you think the price is right then of course that's fine as the thread always looks for value so steer clear, emotion aside, I just can't get enough of Derby tomorrow, they should be 4/9 at least IMO for a straight win.

[DungBeetle]

Careful with this one - Derby have Eustace suspended and Jordan Ibe has been recalled to Liverpool.  I imagine they will win but if the price hasn't changed to reflect this dunno if it will be value.

[DungBeetle]

With an eye to semi final, Allen has been below par today.  If he scrapes through this one might be worth opposing in the next round.

[TightEnd]

With an eye to semi final, Allen has been below par today.  If he scrapes through this one might be worth opposing in the next round.

he'll be an underdog to Maguire or Murphy, but could bounce back easily?

terrible match this afternoon, it has to be said

[arbboy]

With an eye to semi final, Allen has been below par today.  If he scrapes through this one might be worth opposing in the next round.

he'll be an underdog to Maguire or Murphy, but could bounce back easily?

terrible match this afternoon, it has to be said

Matches against Perry can be poor and dis jointed.  I wouldn't be over reacting too much to that performance.  The semi will be very close to a coin flip.  I would have Allen as a very slight fav v Maguire and a very slight dog to murphy.

[TightEnd]

Following on from betting against my team last week and scooping, we have Derby away tomorrow.  I can't see any way whatsoever of getting a result tomorrow.

The reasons are:

Forest are on a dismal run which has lasted weeks.
Assombalonga is doubtful for the game
Pearce does not have a clue
We are in a worse state than this time last year (and we lost 5 nil at Derby)
Confidence is at an all time low
Derby are better than last season
If/when we concede, we are unable to get back into games as we are clueless.

I'd like to suggest the handicap again, this time Derby -1 @ 19/10.  I think the bookies have got it wrong because they are taking into account the local derby aspect.  The reality is we have a terrible record there and we are quite simply very poor compared to a well organised and solid Derby outfit.

Just fill your boots guys, put what you like on for the thread if you wish.   For the record, I have backed this and also a small bet on 4 - 0 Derby.

If you think the price is right then of course that's fine as the thread always looks for value so steer clear, emotion aside, I just can't get enough of Derby tomorrow, they should be 4/9 at least IMO for a straight win.

i'm a little bit wary of this (accepting that you watch Forest)

we all know the recent form

- Derby are unbeaten in their last five games in all competitions, winning the last four

- Forest have not won any of their last eight games in all competitions, losing five.

so do the prices we are being offered.

 8/11 outright will be as short as either team has been against the other for a long time, in what are always big local derbies?

i suppose you think Forest are that bad that there is more to go at opposing them until Pearce goes etc etc

no problem with getting on, but i am just pondering the value (or lack of it) angle.

[arbboy]

Following on from betting against my team last week and scooping, we have Derby away tomorrow.  I can't see any way whatsoever of getting a result tomorrow.

The reasons are:

Forest are on a dismal run which has lasted weeks.
Assombalonga is doubtful for the game
Pearce does not have a clue
We are in a worse state than this time last year (and we lost 5 nil at Derby)
Confidence is at an all time low
Derby are better than last season
If/when we concede, we are unable to get back into games as we are clueless.

I'd like to suggest the handicap again, this time Derby -1 @ 19/10.  I think the bookies have got it wrong because they are taking into account the local derby aspect.  The reality is we have a terrible record there and we are quite simply very poor compared to a well organised and solid Derby outfit.

Just fill your boots guys, put what you like on for the thread if you wish.   For the record, I have backed this and also a small bet on 4 - 0 Derby.

If you think the price is right then of course that's fine as the thread always looks for value so steer clear, emotion aside, I just can't get enough of Derby tomorrow, they should be 4/9 at least IMO for a straight win.

i'm a little bit wary of this (accepting that you watch Forest)

we all know the recent form

- Derby are unbeaten in their last five games in all competitions, winning the last four

- Forest have not won any of their last eight games in all competitions, losing five.

so do the prices we are being offered.

 8/11 outright will be as short as either team has been against the other for a long time, in what are always big local derbies?

i suppose you think Forest are that bad that there is more to go at opposing them until Pearce goes etc etc

no problem with getting on, but i am just pondering the value (or lack of it) angle.

These games are tough because if Forest get hammered tomorrow Pearce is probably sacked.  He might have already lost the dressing room or they might still be pulling for him and put a monster effort in tomorrow.  Think the local derby factor is overrated in betting.  Pullien has shown over the years it makes little difference but i am sure bookies still over react to it.  I hate backing odds on in the Championship but it's hard to see Derby going off bigger than 8/11 for this imo.

It's pretty clear Derby are a top 3 side in this Division.  It is much harder to say where Forest currently are (not their actual league position now obviously but where they would should be in the league - ie what they are currently ranked as a team in the div in order to accurately grade them for this game - based on their recent form and how much of that is down to variance) therefore this makes it so much harder to price up the game imo.

As Dung says though Derby are missing key players and the big firms know they are going to lay Derby at any price tomorrow with it being the first game of the weekend live on sky (there is no early EPL game on tv tomorrow) so the carrot of 8/11 has to be questioned strongly because they could go 8/13 and probably still lay it as a starting game in most accas.