Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Morning Tighty.

I am guessing that Bopara is not going to play tonight. I see that Butler is 19-1 to be top bat for England tonight with Paddy Power. Anyone fancy putting a fiver on for Fred?

In the Delray Beach tennis Anderson, the new top seed after Isner lost, became the ex-top seed when he lost last night.

I can place 5 on pp for Fred if wanted, as soon as this is confirmed I'll place assuming the odds haven't dropped!

go ahead please

Ah sorry just read this and tried to place but odds have dropped to 14/1, still best price, still want? I guess it depends on hectors say!

thanks up to Hector

[TightEnd]

this is an amazing read

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/news/11421732/Revealed-the-ghost-game-bet-on-around-the-world...that-never-actually-took-place.html

[swinebag22]

Thinking about an angle for tonight's (or next morning's) WC match between England and NZ.

I have looked at the last few games played at the westpac and there have been a variety of scores and results, but the one thing that consistently stands out is that the team batting first does not have it easy in the early overs, so even though it will be reasonable for a team to get 300ish again, do not expect fireworks in the first 10.Could easily be only 30-40 runs scored.

Not sure where to proceed with this knowledge (if it even is an edge)

No firms seem to price up an OVER/UNDER first 10 overs market yet. Do they exist?
Does not seem to be any value in the top team bowler markets but there may be some value in the top bowler market once the toss has been made. Only non bookmakers have priced this up though so far

[TightEnd]

this any good to you? (slightly different market, but you can go under a chosen score)

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/world-cup-matches/new-zealand-v-england/england-10-over-total


the ground itself (multi-purpose, isn't that big) isn't so much the issue, its a drop in pitch that will be batting friendly, but the two recent games there (pakistan, sri lanka) were played in very overcast conditions and kept totals down

friday's forecast is better than those games http://www.metservice.com/towns-cities/wellington/wellington-city

i am expecting a 550+ run game

[hector62]

If it's still 14's then do it. 

[Doobs]

McCoy rides Carlingford Lough in the Gold Cup.

12/1 with BMU, Billy Mountain and the Red Shouty Man.

Same principle as the National?

If you are backing to lay you should definitely be starting on Betfair at 13.5. 

What's realistic here, doobs?

Punter money is going to be on the names at the top of the market, too. Feels like it isn't as clear as the National in that respect, but it's hardly likely to go out from 13.5 unless he or the horse gets injured (NRNB doesn't apply to the exchange does it? If no, shouldn't we go with the bookies?)

If people think we can lay it off at 8/1, that makes £450 off a £100 stake, less commission. 10/1 for £250 and so on.

Just putting it up for discussion.


(Edit: have seen your edit now )

what is the suggestion?

back it on Betfair as a definite back to lay on the day? (usually there is a collapse in favourite prices on the day iirc)

how much?

That is the suggestion but it is only that because I'm hoping for horse folk to offer guidance.

Back to lay is the suggestion.

There is going to be less mug money in the Gold Cup.  If you go the Betfair route there is going to be two different markets.  Ante post and on the day.  If you open a position in the ante post market to benefit from netting off you need to close before the market disappears.  So you can't open today and close it on the day of the race and hope Betfair net off your commission. 

I thought they usually netted off commission on big ante post markets like this against day of the race markets?

Shows how many big ante post winners I have!  Though it is probably more a reflection of how infrequently I lay back. 

It appears Arbboy is right anyway, so no rush to net off.

Thread had a lucky escape with the ante post national market.  I wrote a post a couple of days ago about Burton Port for the national that disappeared in the ether.  The horse died yesterday

[nuros]

If it's still 14's then do it. 

Ok done 5 placed at 14/1 glgl!

[swinebag22]

this any good to you? (slightly different market, but you can go under a chosen score)

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/world-cup-matches/new-zealand-v-england/england-10-over-total


the ground itself (multi-purpose, isn't that big) isn't so much the issue, its a drop in pitch that will be batting friendly, but the two recent games there (pakistan, sri lanka) were played in very overcast conditions and kept totals down

friday's forecast is better than those games http://www.metservice.com/towns-cities/wellington/wellington-city

i am expecting a 550+ run game

Probably best to leave alone then. I don't know if it is the time difference but, apart from the outrights, there doesn't seem to be that many good bets in the WC. I'm staying up to watch this so would like to have a bet on it other than the Butler one. No point forcing it though

[arbboy]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2367558-2015-nba-rookie-ladder-can-anyone-challenge-andrew-wiggins

NBA rookie of the year article.  Wiggins still projected to hose up.

In related Rondo news one of the players above him on the assists list (Lawson) is in big trade rumours today prior to the trade deadline.  We might still have an outside chance of a top 3 finish if he got traded to another team and his stats drop like Rondo's have.

[Marky147]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2367558-2015-nba-rookie-ladder-can-anyone-challenge-andrew-wiggins

NBA rookie of the year article.  Wiggins still projected to hose up.

In related Rondo news one of the players above him on the assists list (Lawson) is in big trade rumours today prior to the trade deadline.  We might still have an outside chance of a top 3 finish if he got traded to another team and his stats drop like Rondo's have.

Good chance for Stoke to kick on this weekend, and give themselves a bit of a cushion.;

[arbboy]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2367558-2015-nba-rookie-ladder-can-anyone-challenge-andrew-wiggins

NBA rookie of the year article.  Wiggins still projected to hose up.

In related Rondo news one of the players above him on the assists list (Lawson) is in big trade rumours today prior to the trade deadline.  We might still have an outside chance of a top 3 finish if he got traded to another team and his stats drop like Rondo's have.

Good chance for Stoke to kick on this weekend, and give themselves a bit of a cushion.;

Yes bit unlucky for Stoke to run into playing Villa away as Sherwood's first game in charge.  I Have been looking at a market now for several weeks posted below and i am totally convinced the Stoke price is massively wrong.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-midlands-club

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football-domestic/premier-league/mm4.uk.meeting.4719890/premier-league-points-2014-2015

Stoke are in for 10 points more than WBA with sportingindex, 14 more than Villa and Leics must be a million to overtake Stoke.  My gut is telling me 1/5 Stoke here is massive.  Anyone got any views/maths to price it up accurately?  I think Ladbrokes are a lot closer to the mark than Skybet.  Leics must surely be literally 1000/1+ to be top midlands club.  They are decent odds against to even get past Stoke's current points total.

On a clean skybet account they will lay this to a 5 figure amount as well so it is worth discussing.

[TightEnd]

one of the pre-season bets we have that i don't refer to much is

stoke v villa v wba finishing position   stoke   2.6   80

Pulis and Sherwood might make that closer than its looked for quite a while

[arbboy]

one of the pre-season bets we have that i don't refer to much is

stoke v villa v wba finishing position   stoke   2.6   80

Pulis and Sherwood might make that closer than its looked for quite a while

Yes that is the bet i have in a lumpy double with Wiggins for nba roy at bwin for a 18/1 bink!  I have no real need to get further involved but the 1/5 just looks too big to me.  Stoke have got a few injuries but Villa still have to play WBA so points have to be dropped for one or both of those teams.  Stoke just have such a big start on them with so few games left.

[Marky147]

I was just about to ask you on Skype what your Wiggins/Stoke bet was with bwin.

I've been thinking they need top 10 all season, and upon checking it just shows me 'to finish higher' in the description.

I presume I'm on the same bet as you, and it's Stoke in a matchbet with WBA/Villa/Leicester for top mids?

[arbboy]

I was just about to ask you on Skype what your Wiggins/Stoke bet was with bwin.

I've been thinking they need top 10 all season, and upon checking it just shows me 'to finish higher' in the description.

I presume I'm on the same bet as you, and it's Stoke in a matchbet with WBA/Villa/Leicester for top mids?

I have got decent doubles with stoke to finish higher than those two mids teams/stoke v villa in match bet and stoke top 10 all with bwin.  Wiggins/Stoke double at 18/1 is currently about a 1/8 shot in running!

I think you were on the 3 way match up at 2.6 the same as me.  If it says to finish higher and the price is 2.6 at bwin then its to finish above WBA and villa not top 10 finish.  Leicester are not included in the 3 way match up at bwin but it doesn't matter anyway as they are so far tailed off.

Bwin just took an incredible pre season view on Stoke.  I think they made stoke v villa a flip in a season long match bet even though sporting had them 6 points higher!