Tips for Tikay

[exstream]

Ladbrokes have said £100 annie power, £25 douvan

[aaron1867]

Ladbrokes have said £100 annie power, £25 douvan

wow, £100

out of all the favourites today AP is the one I am really struggling to find love for & even I am restricted with Ladbrokes, see what they may give me

[exstream]

Boyles are 6/4 faugheen right now. Exchange 2.2

[TightEnd]

Supreme Novices

You have to have a bet with Hills and get the refund. 

I'd naturally prefer to back each way in this race, but that isn't the best way to play it as you get no refund if you get a place.

This bet has more value if you back a bigger priced horse.  Hills are biggest about Qewy, and I quite like it.  It is 14/1 tick, it has a lot of speed as an ex flat horse.  Definitely worth a look if considering this offer.  Back it on the PC first, as I am absolutely sure you should use the mobile to back Douvan at 2/1 (slightly better on betfair but no free bet if 2nd).  I think you can get both offers this way if you back in that order.  £25 win on each is fine.

This is also a good each way race, so if you are looking elsewhere, I don' think there is any harm in going fairly hard on this.  Jollyalan would be nice each way if anybody can get the 10/1 with paddies (they maxed me at £10.93).  Maybe b365 or someone will match this in the morning.  I don't think you should take any less. 

The other I like is Seedling at 22/1.  Has won at Cheltenham, has won on good (NHF tho).  I'd worry a bit that he hasn't run for a while, but at a price right on betfair and those e/w terms, can't be a bad bet.

Really is no shame in going mob handed on this race, the e/w terms are your friend.

10 Mar 2015 - 1:30 Cheltenham - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!
Tip It

Qewy @ 14/1

Stake : £25.00
Estimated Returns : £
375.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001215/F
Total Stake : £25.00

That is money back as a free bet if it loses, the Wm Hill Supreme offer

Single Selections
13:30 SEEDLING (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 22/1 Stake: 30.00 Possible Return:  442.50

£15 e/w 1/4 1,2,3

Douvan £25 at 2-1 mobile. free bet if 2nd


i have just wasted 10 minutes trying to get the betslip to load for UDS at evens, no joy

only the best day's betting of the year, Mr Coral

haven't got time to fuck around for longer than that

on to the next one

[exstream]

hills 5/1 on the new one

[arbboy]

the arbboy totesport bet. don't think he has reposted it but i need to confirm it on here

9 Mar 15 - 18:26    Single    1 Bet @ £50.00

P 50/1 Or Bigger @ 15/8

so thats a 50/1 or above winner in any of the 29 festival races


he can explain the maths/theory if he has time

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/racing-specials/long-term/cheltenham-festival/biggest-winning-sp

It was discussed briefly last week with Simon kindly putting up some historical stats which, although a small sample statistically, are still relevant.  On the stats alone they made it shorter than 15/8.  If you add in the fact a lot of this sample didn't involve the market being based around a betfair market where the sp % are tighter than the good old days (this makes the rags slightly bigger prices than they would have been 20/30 years ago imo).  On top of that with the weather forecast for today it is highly likely that the going is going to be closer to good than good to soft which logically makes a shock result more likely as the vast majority of winter form has been on soft/heavy ground.

In addition there is now a betfair market for this and it clearly shows that 365/bald/tote have pretty much put all their margin in their 111% 3 way book into the under 33/1 price which is around a 7/2 4/1 shot on bf (been done at 6/1 for £200 on bf).  If you really want to be a nit you can back 15/8 50/1+ and the mid band as well 33-40/1 inclusive at 6/4 with 365.  This works out just a shade bigger than 1/3 coupled.  Then you back under 33/1 at 7/2 4/1ish and you got yourself a 2-3% arb.

In my opinion all the value is in the over 40/1 at 15/8 hence the bet. If you don't mind backing a short one at 1/3 coupled then backing both the bands is always acceptable.

Right off to Cheltenham for the day.  If anyone is in the betfair tent say hi.  Good luck everyone.

[TightEnd]

Am wading through them anyway.  Am not getting any time in the morning.

Arkle

Hills are biggest Un De Sceaux in this, which makes that an obv bet for the Hils mobile.

Think Clarcam must be the best each way bet.  If you ignore that last race, he'd be much shorter, and ran well at Cheltenham before.

what you do with them is up to you.
 

 14:05 CLARCAM (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 18/1 Stake: 30.00 Possible Return:  367.50

£15 e/w 1/4 1,2,3

[aaron1867]

couple of interesting prices

4.00 -  Glens Melody 6/1 (boyles, 888)

2.05 - Josses Hill 14/1 (Hills only) - potential free bet suggestion if Douvan doesn't win

[exstream]

Glens Melody 8.2 betfair

[TightEnd]

The Mares Hurdle doesn't look nearly as interesting as the first 3 I looked at. 

Some of us last year believed she was a good thing for the Champion, but it wasn't to be.

She should win this by 15 lengths, so I'd want some real value to bet anything else. 

Outside the Irish jokers you can get 11/2 Glens Melody, and taking that to get 11/8 the place whilst betfair is 7/1 the win feels a bit rubbish.

I've put small bets on Polly Peachum (10/1) and L'Unique (20/1) each way and Hillsmobiled Annie Power.  Those two are still a bit of value each way, but nothing more.

Polly


10/03/2015 08:48AM
Single
Each Way
£ 30.00
2 x £ 15.00
12. Polly Peachum - 4:00 Cheltenham - Win or Each Way @ 10/1

L'Unique

 16:00 L'UNIQUE (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 20/1 Stake: 30.00 Possible Return:  405.00

£15 e/w

[TightEnd]

Ned Stark in the 3rd


14:40 Chelt 10th Mar BOG

    9/1

    £198.60
    Ned Stark
    Win
    £15 EW

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000122

[Larry David]

No to faugheen but.  But at 1/5. Over a1000 bets all day long

Lay away

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/horse-racing/market/1.117671482?nodeId=27389854.1520

How can 95% of your betting be maths based, but you not understand that backing Faugheen 5/4ew when the place part is so obviously value and if you dont agree with that then you can do better and just lay the other side at an even shorter price. I don't understand what can possibly be going on in the thread. How can someone claiming to make a living punting think that backing something at 1/3 when its true price is 1/5 is a way to the poor house? Your opinion is mental. I can get with concerns about NR or something else, but this is just plain wrong thinking.

OK, as I said before, who says 1/5 is the true price in the first place?? Arbboy claims he lays 1/5 shots wheb he believes the price is incorrect, what makes his opinion on a price correct in some markets and not others??  Backing odds on is a way to go broke.  1/50 shots are beaten every hour of the day, so if the correct price was 1/33 you would back away would you??

[exstream]

faugheen 6/4 lads for 200 supposedly at 9 too

[TightEnd]

Glens Melody 8.2 betfair

(famous last words) needs softer....thats why we went polly and l'unique

[TightEnd]

couple of interesting prices

4.00 -  Glens Melody 6/1 (boyles, 888)

2.05 - Josses Hill 14/1 (Hills only) - potential free bet suggestion if Douvan doesn't win

josses=jumps like a snooker table (copyright Mr Nevison)