Tips for Tikay

[Kmac84]

Excited for this!

I'm a 10 - 6 shft but have Friday off for the Gold Cup.  Benefit of workng to 6 is I will get to see the first 2 races each day in the bookies.   I''ll record the rest for when I get home.  

My selections for day 1 are mostly going against favourites, not to say I don't think they will win, I'm looking to win a few quid but don't have the resources needed to follow the Arguementative one.  

Seedling, Slaneshill
Josses Hill
Lost Legend
Faugheen
Caroles Spirit, Bitofapuzzle
Vivalli Collonges
Stellar Notion, Cold March

I'll be doing a few as e/w singles and a multitude of lucky 15's with them.  

[TightEnd]

hills 5/1 on the new one

10 Mar 2015 - 3:20 Cheltenham - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!
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The New One @ 5/1  EW @ 1/4 1-3

Stake : £30.00 (£15.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
123.75




this will probably be lost in the number of posts but should i be doing jezki e/w too?

hurricane fly?

both each way etc

[Kmac84]

No to faugheen but.  But at 1/5. Over a1000 bets all day long

Lay away

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/horse-racing/market/1.117671482?nodeId=27389854.1520

How can 95% of your betting be maths based, but you not understand that backing Faugheen 5/4ew when the place part is so obviously value and if you dont agree with that then you can do better and just lay the other side at an even shorter price. I don't understand what can possibly be going on in the thread. How can someone claiming to make a living punting think that backing something at 1/3 when its true price is 1/5 is a way to the poor house? Your opinion is mental. I can get with concerns about NR or something else, but this is just plain wrong thinking.

OK, as I said before, who says 1/5 is the true price in the first place?? Arbboy claims he lays 1/5 shots wheb he believes the price is incorrect, what makes his opinion on a price correct in some markets and not others??  Backing odds on is a way to go broke.  1/50 shots are beaten every hour of the day, so if the correct price was 1/33 you would back away would you??

You are never going to win this one, even if your right you will be wrong.  ;-)

[tikay]

Supreme Novices

You have to have a bet with Hills and get the refund. 

I'd naturally prefer to back each way in this race, but that isn't the best way to play it as you get no refund if you get a place.

This bet has more value if you back a bigger priced horse.  Hills are biggest about Qewy, and I quite like it.  It is 14/1 tick, it has a lot of speed as an ex flat horse.  Definitely worth a look if considering this offer.  Back it on the PC first, as I am absolutely sure you should use the mobile to back Douvan at 2/1 (slightly better on betfair but no free bet if 2nd).  I think you can get both offers this way if you back in that order.  £25 win on each is fine.

This is also a good each way race, so if you are looking elsewhere, I don' think there is any harm in going fairly hard on this.  Jollyalan would be nice each way if anybody can get the 10/1 with paddies (they maxed me at £10.93).  Maybe b365 or someone will match this in the morning.  I don't think you should take any less. 

The other I like is Seedling at 22/1.  Has won at Cheltenham, has won on good (NHF tho).  I'd worry a bit that he hasn't run for a while, but at a price right on betfair and those e/w terms, can't be a bad bet.

Really is no shame in going mob handed on this race, the e/w terms are your friend.

10 Mar 2015 - 1:30 Cheltenham - Win

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Qewy @ 14/1

Stake : £25.00
Estimated Returns : £
375.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001215/F
Total Stake : £25.00

That is money back as a free bet if it loses, the Wm Hill Supreme offer

Single Selections
13:30 SEEDLING (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 22/1 Stake: 30.00 Possible Return:  442.50

£15 e/w 1/4 1,2,3

Douvan £25 at 2-1 mobile. free bet if 2nd


i have just wasted 10 minutes trying to get the betslip to load for UDS at evens, no joy
only the best day's betting of the year, Mr Coral

haven't got time to fuck around for longer than that

on to the next one

Marky taught me the knack of getting the bet to "take" with Corals, so I just tried it, & it worked.

I typed £25. They offered us £2.

Thanks, but no thanks.

[exstream]

Yeah, Annie Power definitely £100 at evens
Douvan £25 at 3/1
£200 Faugheen 6/4

[TightEnd]

tried for £100

Annie Power at evens
16:00 Cheltenham
Singles - Race Winner
1 line @ £10.00 per line
Total Stake £10.00
Potential Return £20.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000860

 
douvan at 3-1, again limited to 10% £2.5

no thanks

faugheen at 6/4 tried for £200

Faugheen
15:20 Cheltenham
Singles - Race Winner
1 line @ £10.00 per line
Total Stake £10.00
Potential Return £25.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/000086


i think we can safely reduce ladbrokes balance further at the end of the week

[rfgqqabc]

No to faugheen but.  But at 1/5. Over a1000 bets all day long

Lay away

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/horse-racing/market/1.117671482?nodeId=27389854.1520

How can 95% of your betting be maths based, but you not understand that backing Faugheen 5/4ew when the place part is so obviously value and if you dont agree with that then you can do better and just lay the other side at an even shorter price. I don't understand what can possibly be going on in the thread. How can someone claiming to make a living punting think that backing something at 1/3 when its true price is 1/5 is a way to the poor house? Your opinion is mental. I can get with concerns about NR or something else, but this is just plain wrong thinking.

OK, as I said before, who says 1/5 is the true price in the first place?? Arbboy claims he lays 1/5 shots wheb he believes the price is incorrect, what makes his opinion on a price correct in some markets and not others??  Backing odds on is a way to go broke.  1/50 shots are beaten every hour of the day, so if the correct price was 1/33 you would back away would you??

I shouldn't have posted as it isn't going to change anyones mind. Waste of both our time to continue the discussion.

But yes if I was sure the correct price was 1/50 and I could get 1/33 I would do so with a smile on my face and a kick in my step, virtually all my punting comes from following people who are much more clued up than me, I don't care whether its 100/1 or 1/100, I just like money. Had my biggest bet ever on arbboys suggestion earlier on this year in the Chelsea to go unbeaten market, as the price (10/1 but was laying it) was absolutely ludicrous. I trust maths (as well as arbboys opinion on what markets can be trusted on BF)

[tikay]

hills 5/1 on the new one

10 Mar 2015 - 3:20 Cheltenham - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!
Tip It

The New One @ 5/1  EW @ 1/4 1-3

Stake : £30.00 (£15.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
123.75




this will probably be lost in the number of posts but should i be doing jezki e/w too?

hurricane fly?
both each way etc

It was my understanding from Doobs & several others that we can't have too many EW bets in this race. Seem to recall we backed no less than FIVE of the buggers in this race 3 years ago, spurred on by Messrs Dubai, Channing & Co? 

Up to you, it can't be massively bad to back several.

[tikay]

Excited for this!

I'm a 10 - 6 shft but have Friday off for the Gold Cup.  Benefit of workng to 6 is I will get to see the first 2 races each day in the bookies.   I''ll record the rest for when I get home.  

My selections for day 1 are mostly going against favourites, not to say I don't think they will win, I'm looking to win a few quid but don't have the resources needed to follow the Arguementative one. 
Seedling, Slaneshill
Josses Hill
Lost Legend
Faugheen
Caroles Spirit, Bitofapuzzle
Vivalli Collonges
Stellar Notion, Cold March

I'll be doing a few as e/w singles and a multitude of lucky 15's with them.  

Who that?

[aaron1867]

tried for £100

Annie Power at evens
16:00 Cheltenham
Singles - Race Winner
1 line @ £10.00 per line
Total Stake £10.00
Potential Return £20.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000860

 
douvan at 3-1, again limited to 10% £2.5

no thanks

faugheen at 6/4 tried for £200

Faugheen
15:20 Cheltenham
Singles - Race Winner
1 line @ £10.00 per line
Total Stake £10.00
Potential Return £25.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/000086


i think we can safely reduce ladbrokes balance further at the end of the week

they've let me have the whole lot on all of them (not backed them)

quite generous with maxs surely??

[TightEnd]

to summarise

we have

race 1 douvan, qewy, seedling

race 2 UDS, Clarcam

race 3 Ned stark

race 4 faugheen, the new one

race 5  annie power, polly peachum, l'unique

races 6 and 7 -


jakally, marky and tonibell kindly replied to my questions yesterday and some of their selections are covered above. will go back now and add a couple where they were mentioned by a couple of the posters


please prod me if i have missed anything obvious

[Marky147]

hills 5/1 on the new one

10 Mar 2015 - 3:20 Cheltenham - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!
Tip It

The New One @ 5/1  EW @ 1/4 1-3

Stake : £30.00 (£15.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
123.75




this will probably be lost in the number of posts but should i be doing jezki e/w too?

hurricane fly?
both each way etc

It was my understanding from Doobs & several others that we can't have too many EW bets in this race. Seem to recall we backed no less than FIVE of the buggers in this race 3 years ago, spurred on by Messrs Dubai, Channing & Co? 

Up to you, it can't be massively bad to back several.

That was the Supreme

As much as I'd love HF to win, it would appear the ground is going to be more suited to the front 3 in the market, and (I think) Arctic Fire.

[tikay]

tried for £100

Annie Power at evens
16:00 Cheltenham
Singles - Race Winner
1 line @ £10.00 per line
Total Stake £10.00
Potential Return £20.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000860

 
douvan at 3-1, again limited to 10% £2.5

no thanks

faugheen at 6/4 tried for £200

Faugheen
15:20 Cheltenham
Singles - Race Winner
1 line @ £10.00 per line
Total Stake £10.00
Potential Return £25.00
Receipt No: O/142640973/000086


i think we can safely reduce ladbrokes balance further at the end of the week

they've let me have the whole lot on all of them (not backed them)

quite generous with maxs surely??

For the very few who can get on, yes, but they won't lay most of us so it's a false figure really.

[tikay]

hills 5/1 on the new one

10 Mar 2015 - 3:20 Cheltenham - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!
Tip It

The New One @ 5/1  EW @ 1/4 1-3

Stake : £30.00 (£15.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
123.75




this will probably be lost in the number of posts but should i be doing jezki e/w too?

hurricane fly?
both each way etc

It was my understanding from Doobs & several others that we can't have too many EW bets in this race. Seem to recall we backed no less than FIVE of the buggers in this race 3 years ago, spurred on by Messrs Dubai, Channing & Co? 

Up to you, it can't be massively bad to back several.

That was the Supreme

As much as I'd love HF to win, it would appear the ground is going to be more suited to the front 3 in the market, and (I think) Arctic Fire.

Bugger.

Think the logic is similar, though.

[aaron1867]

I think I can get you on with Lads if you want it (£200 Faugheen, £60 AP)

but would need BT now as I have like £40 left in NW