Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

I guess this depends on your financial situation? Bet sizing is something I have always struggled with, and I've been nothing but open about this in the past. I guess it's about knowing that every bet has a risk, and that you should ensure it is not a complete disaster for your bank balance should the bet lose. I'm sure you know this already though.

Interested to get some thoughts on how you guys determine your bet size?

Level stakes for a lot of mine, then you have to be careful you aren't subsidizing silly bets with money made from thing you know are working well.  Very difficult to get it right. 

I checked how much my curry cost earlier, and backed accordingly

[T_Mar]

Thursday at Cheltenham has 6 races

it doesn't look much easier than today, where we made a small profit


race 1 the JLT

Vautour is the 2/1 favourite. We are on, effectively, at 9/2 from a while back

9 runners, only 4 below 10/1

3 places 1/4 e/w

i expect this to be quite an attractive race for e/w punters

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/13:30/winner


race 2 the Pertemps

a 24 runner hurdle, pays 5 places

8-1 the field and if you would like a pin, you can stick it for me

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/14:05/winner


race 3 ryanair

14 runners

only pays 3 places

ma filleule has been mentioned a lot on here in the run up to the race, we backed her last time out and missed a price for this

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/14:40/winner


race 4 the world hurdle

17 runners, pays 4 places

zarkandar and saphir de rheu at 5-1

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/15:20/winner


race 5 the festival plate

24 runners pays 5 places

7-1 the field over one lap of the chase track

i'll have that pin back please

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/16:00/winner


race 6 the kim muir

24 amateur riders, 10-1 the field

only 4 places everywhere

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/16:40/winner




advance warning: i am keeping stakes small, i think

just looks tough



of course all ideas welcomed though

If you can get 4 places in the world hurdle you might want to increase your stakes rather decrease, first race is pretty good as well

[swinebag22]

Day 3 at chelters looks to have some great spots

1.30 JLT - this is a great EW race, I have gone for Splash of Ginge. 16/1 (20/1 with non bookies) seems about right for an inconsistent performer but with some decent course form and the excellent EW terms, I'm going in. Recc £10EW unless anyone thinks differently

2.40 Ryanair - With 14 runners, EW is not that appealling. Do we just go win only here? I like Uxizandre (again decent course form) but this is too much of an arrow to recommend. Would be interested in peoples thoughts on this race

3.20 WH - A lot of firms paying 4 places EW. Zarkandar feels like buying money here and I know Fred is already on. I am chucking a few small darts at Aubusson (66/1) and Reve de sivola (20/1) for the hell of it


not even looked at the handicaps yet

[Doobs]

Day 3 at chelters looks to have some great spots

1.30 JLT - this is a great EW race, I have gone for Splash of Ginge. 16/1 (20/1 with non bookies) seems about right for an inconsistent performer but with some decent course form and the excellent EW terms, I'm going in. Recc £10EW unless anyone thinks differently

2.40 Ryanair - With 14 runners, EW is not that appealling. Do we just go win only here? I like Uxizandre (again decent course form) but this is too much of an arrow to recommend. Would be interested in peoples thoughts on this race

3.20 WH - A lot of firms paying 4 places EW. Zarkandar feels like buying money here and I know Fred is already on. I am chucking a few small darts at Aubusson (66/1) and Reve de sivola (20/1) for the hell of it


not even looked at the handicaps yet

If you can only get 16/1 Splash of Ginge,  Betfair is 23/24 and you get 5/5.3 the place.

[Larry David]

I guess this depends on your financial situation? Bet sizing is something I have always struggled with, and I've been nothing but open about this in the past. I guess it's about knowing that every bet has a risk, and that you should ensure it is not a complete disaster for your bank balance should the bet lose. I'm sure you know this already though.

Interested to get some thoughts on how you guys determine your bet size?

Level stakes for a lot of mine, then you have to be careful you aren't subsidizing silly bets with money made from thing you know are working well.  Very difficult to get it right. 

I checked how much my curry cost earlier, and backed accordingly

Never make a decision on empty stomach 'Mr Miyagi'

[Doobs]

JLT novices.  I am very dull on this one as I like the top 2.

Thread is on Vautour already, but for those that aren't, if you can get 2/1 right now, you are beating betfair.

If you like ptit zig, if you go to hills mobile and get 9/2, you are effectively beating win and place prices on bf.  If I was going to rec anything for thread this would be the one.  He was a very good hurdler and his jumps form is really solid if you ignore the fall.  Problem is Vautour looks like it could be a machine.

The book is 103% in this race, so a lot of each ways outside the top 2 here are marginal value.  For instrance those with PP, well both of you can get Colour Squadron at 28/1 and 7/1 the place; the win price matches betfair and the place price crushes it.

Sorry to be dull, but I have just backed the top 2.

[exstream]

Ooooh, vautour 3/1 with coral in morning £20

[Marky147]

I guess this depends on your financial situation? Bet sizing is something I have always struggled with, and I've been nothing but open about this in the past. I guess it's about knowing that every bet has a risk, and that you should ensure it is not a complete disaster for your bank balance should the bet lose. I'm sure you know this already though.

Interested to get some thoughts on how you guys determine your bet size?

Level stakes for a lot of mine, then you have to be careful you aren't subsidizing silly bets with money made from thing you know are working well.  Very difficult to get it right. 

I checked how much my curry cost earlier, and backed accordingly

Never make a decision on empty stomach 'Mr Miyagi'

I just make sure I never have an empty stomach!

[McGlashan]

If anyone wants to keep Barca onside in the Champions league then Ladbrokes are going 10/3 which is slightly better than the exchange (was 9/2 prior to Chelsea's exit). My reason for backing them was to take on the English sides and Juve, plus Atletico Madrid look a little short to qualify for the next round.

[Doobs]

The Ryanair is a bad each way race, and I can't get any enthusiasm for it.  Don Cossack is 9/2 on BF and 4/1 at bets with the bookies.  Think he is probably the best bet, so won't rec anything unless somebody goes 5/1 tomorrow.

The World Hurdle doesn't feel much better.  You look at it and think they should be quarter first 4 here, but then look and all those who have gone quarter first 4 have ducked the prices.  Zarkandar or Saphir Du Rheu both look ok to me for the Hills offer at 11/2 e/w and getting 4 places.  I know Neil likes the former, but I am biassed towards the latter who has been so good to me.  It just leaves me in a difficult spot, because I don't like tipping stuff I don't back and this is a real heart/head one for me.  I am definitely on Saphir personally tho.

The other one I like is Whisper who I think would be really nice bet if we got 11/1 and 4 places.  Can't get enthusiastic when the choice is 10/1 3 places and 9/1 4 places.

The other one that could be massive is At Fishers Cross, who you could look at if it was 33/1 4 places, but some have ducked this horse horribly and only Stans is 33/1 (coral are 18/1 paying 3 places on a horse that is 30/1 on betfair is abysmal, bet they still restrict half the forum!)  It has been an absolute dodge pot over the last year or so, but a race like this could bring out the best in him.

All very meh.

edit close to calling it a day.  It is late and we've had a good run.  Guess I could be back if I notice anything in the handicaps

[McGlashan]

And should Arsenal really be as short as 2.45 to win away in Monaco? They're a naturally defensive team, they shouldn't be like Bayern Munich and get caught in two minds about how to protect a lead.

[Marky147]

The Ryanair is a bad each way race, and I can't get any enthusiasm for it.  Don Cossack is 9/2 on BF and 4/1 at bets with the bookies.  Think he is probably the best bet, so won't rec anything unless somebody goes 5/1 tomorrow.

The World Hurdle doesn't feel much better.  You look at it and think they should be quarter first 4 here, but then look and all those who have gone quarter first 4 have ducked the prices.  Zarkandar or Saphir Du Rheu both look ok to me for the Hills offer at 11/2 e/w and getting 4 places.  I know Neil likes the former, but I am biassed towards the latter who has been so good to me.  It just leaves me in a difficult spot, because I don't like tipping stuff I don't back and this is a real heart/head one for me.  I am definitely on Saphir personally tho.

The other one I like is Whisper who I think would be really nice bet if we got 11/1 and 4 places.  Can't get enthusiastic when the choice is 10/1 3 places and 9/1 4 places.

The other one that could be massive is At Fishers Cross, who you could look at if it was 33/1 4 places, but some have ducked this horse horribly and only Stans is 33/1 (coral are 18/1 paying 3 places on a horse that is 30/1 on betfair is abysmal, bet they still restrict half the forum!)  It has been an absolute dodge pot over the last year or so, but a race like this could bring out the best in him.

All very meh.

edit close to calling it a day.  It is late and we've had a good run.  Guess I could be back if I notice anything in the handicaps

Likewise with SDR, and I've been on UTPT from before the Cleeve, too.

Only one I've backed in the new market is Cole Harden, who has just had what is supposedly a successful breathing op.

[Doobs]

If anyone is still up and loves a plot horse, Monetaire is interesting in the 5th race.  It has come over from France where it seems to have run in decent races, then had a sighter, afterwards started at 2/1 in the next and won fairly well there.

Now it appears at the bottom of a handicap at Cheltenham.  B365 are still going 7/1 and 5 places .  Can't see it there in the morning.

[tikay]

If anyone is still up and loves a plot horse, Monetaire is interesting in the 5th race.  It has come over from France where it seems to have run in decent races, then had a sighter, afterwards started at 2/1 in the next and won fairly well there.

Now it appears at the bottom of a handicap at Cheltenham.  B365 are still going 7/1 and 5 places .  Can't see it there in the morning.

Thanks for this, & the other suggestions, Doobs.

As at 0630 this morning, BetEveryDay still go 7/1 Monetaire.

Tighty - to save you looking, Fred can get a Max of £7.14 on this. They'd allow us £7.14 win, or £7.14 EW, so if you think we should get on, may as well do it EW to get a bit more value.

[tikay]

I have some extremely strong fancies at Cheltenham today.

However, they form part of my entry today for the Cheltenham Tipping Coimpetition, & I don't want others copying my selections & stealing my thunder, so I shall have to keep them under wraps for now.