Tips for Tikay

[BorntoBubble]

How's Betting Emporium doing this festival?

+1

[bookiebasher]

 Just looked at a few videos of the runners again and agree with Adz , Many Clouds for me and the weather forecast is for plenty of rain . Also agree Djakadam far too short in betting and will be taking that one on at the current price. This is THE one I have been looking forward to the most .Was undecided about the fav but after watching last years race a few times he has to be a lay in my book .  I know the cheek pieces seem to have perked him up but that hill is going to do him again. Would probably like to lay him in running at around 2-1.

[Doobs]

How's Betting Emporium doing this festival?

+1

Joe has already answered this on the betting emporium thread.

[Doobs]

Good stuff Adzy, thank you. That'll keep Tighty busy in the morning, but at least we have some solid material to work with.

Another vote for Hargham for me, I think you want 7-1 4 places if possible in the morning (7/1 3 places is ok, but you can only get 6/1 with 4 right now, 7/1 is a bit better).  I also like Petite Parissiene.  You can get 12/1 3 places with Shy, which is nice but out of bounds for thread.  Hills, PP and b365 are 4 places and 8/1 and 9/1.  Just have to wait and hope for better in the morning.

edit.  sky would have been really good if you could get on because i forgot they were free bet if favourite wins in the first.   Unfortunately they have just gone 11/1 Petite Parissiene.  No good for thread, but should be good for those who can get sky offers.

[simonnatur]

I've been following Colin Tizzard's horses for a while now and think Native River may be overpriced at 50-1 2.40 Chelt tomorrow. Seems to go ok on soft and beat Definitely Red ( a 25/1 shot in this race) over 2m6 at Newcastle , giving hope he'll see out the 3m. Was going ok on his only start at Chelt before falling. Won giving weight to the useful looking Emerging Talent lto. Suggest £5 win with BV

[Doobs]

Tighty, do we have betvictor and totesport free bets stilll to use?

I was looking at the 2.05 earlier and picked out Ebony Express at 16/1 and The Game Changer at 11/1, so think the odds are in the right range.  

Both are a good age for the race (6).  One is a novice the other is a second season hurdler, which both get ticks, both seem progressive.  Both are top price with totesport and betvictor.  It would be a shame to use them outside the festival and racing.

Will let you choose which goes where.  If they are gone don't worry.

[exstream]

Sort it out in the same race Doobs is picked by gaul stats for having a lot of trends, thoughts?

[Doobs]

Sort it out in the same race Doobs is picked by gaul stats for having a lot of trends, thoughts?

it is the same sort of horse 5/6 first or 2nd seson chaser, won last time.

I did look at that one too, and was v close.  Annoying Hills have ducked all 3 and I think we have a freebie with them too.

Got on to the Gold Cup.  I know they are a lot of knockers around, but the race doesn't look that great apart from Silviniaco Conti.  Coral are going 11/2 at 8.30 which seems a no brainer, but I am guessing I am just going to be hoovering up any 5/1+.  can't see how that can be worse than betting 7/1 Djakadam or 8/1 Many Clouds (there isn't a lot of rain forecast).  Will obviously be pleased if Many Clouds win for Adz too, just on tomorrow's prices, I have to go elsewhere. 

[simonnatur]

I couldn't resist using a free bet on Lord Windermere, course form has paid off so many times this week and prep looks much better than last year. Definitely won't end up owing me anything after last year 

[Peter-27]

I will keep a close eye on your Motor racing posts still, I find these lesser sports produce some gems in the markets when lazy bookmakers don't update prices or just don't have a clue and you obviously know your stuff.  The popular sports aren't quite as generous.

You just killed me a little inside ..

But yes, half the time it seems like the bookies just set the prices based on the race results rather than what actually happened during the events.

[chelseaboy]

Kovalev v Pascal

I like Pascal by decision at 9/1.

No doubt about it Kovalev is a big puncher, however I see Pascal fighting a smart fight with lots of movement. This will frustrate Kovalev, chasing Pascal round the ring for 12 rounds throwing at air... Pascal will throw punches in bursts with his un orthodox style, he has a proven chin after going toe to toe with Froch a number of years ago.

Pascal being the home fighter in Montreal where not many travelling fighters get a decision, I think Kovalev can only win by knocking Pascal out. The reward for Montreal and the local boxing fans should Pascal win would be a unification fight against who other than Montreals Adonis Stevenson. 2 hometown fighters fighting to unify the division.

The Kovalev v Stevenson fight is a lot less likely to happen with Stevenson signing with Al Haymon and Showtime and Kovalev working with HBO. The Mayweather v Pacman is a one off, I don't see HBO and Showtime making this a regular business move.

Being a huge boxing fan and seeing how corrupt it can be I see an edge in Pascal getting the decision should he stay on his feet for the 12 rounds.

[McGlashan]

Kovalev v Pascal

I like Pascal by decision at 9/1.

No doubt about it Kovalev is a big puncher, however I see Pascal fighting a smart fight with lots of movement. This will frustrate Kovalev, chasing Pascal round the ring for 12 rounds throwing at air... Pascal will throw punches in bursts with his un orthodox style, he has a proven chin after going toe to toe with Froch a number of years ago.

Pascal being the home fighter in Montreal where not many travelling fighters get a decision, I think Kovalev can only win by knocking Pascal out. The reward for Montreal and the local boxing fans should Pascal win would be a unification fight against who other than Montreals Adonis Stevenson. 2 hometown fighters fighting to unify the division.

The Kovalev v Stevenson fight is a lot less likely to happen with Stevenson signing with Al Haymon and Showtime and Kovalev working with HBO. The Mayweather v Pacman is a one off, I don't see HBO and Showtime making this a regular business move.

Being a huge boxing fan and seeing how corrupt it can be I see an edge in Pascal getting the decision should he stay on his feet for the 12 rounds.

Welcome to the thread Chelseaboy, we've also got a boxing thread if you wish to pop by. About your selection, would you keep Pascal by KO onside if offered 19-1 instead of 10-1?

Pascal is 6-1 on Betfair's 1x2 market which is a full point better than Victor's 5-1. After we deduct Tikay's 5% Betfair commsion we get paid out at 6.7 which would cover points and the KO at effectively 9-1 and 19-1.

[tikay]

Kovalev v Pascal

I like Pascal by decision at 9/1.

No doubt about it Kovalev is a big puncher, however I see Pascal fighting a smart fight with lots of movement. This will frustrate Kovalev, chasing Pascal round the ring for 12 rounds throwing at air... Pascal will throw punches in bursts with his un orthodox style, he has a proven chin after going toe to toe with Froch a number of years ago.

Pascal being the home fighter in Montreal where not many travelling fighters get a decision, I think Kovalev can only win by knocking Pascal out. The reward for Montreal and the local boxing fans should Pascal win would be a unification fight against who other than Montreals Adonis Stevenson. 2 hometown fighters fighting to unify the division.

The Kovalev v Stevenson fight is a lot less likely to happen with Stevenson signing with Al Haymon and Showtime and Kovalev working with HBO. The Mayweather v Pacman is a one off, I don't see HBO and Showtime making this a regular business move.

Being a huge boxing fan and seeing how corrupt it can be I see an edge in Pascal getting the decision should he stay on his feet for the 12 rounds.

Welcome to the thread Chelseaboy, we've also got a boxing thread if you wish to pop by. About your selection, would you keep Pascal by KO onside if offered 19-1 instead of 10-1?

Pascal is 6-1 on Betfair's 1x2 market which is a full point better than Victor's 5-1. After we deduct Tikay's 5% Betfair commsion we get paid out at 6.7 which would cover points and the KO at effectively 9-1 and 19-1.

Yes, echoing McGlashan, welcome aboard Chelsea, & do have a look at our vibrant Boxing Thread, it's a knockout. You can find it here...

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=53758.0

[tikay]

Thanks for the early Recommends everyone, that really helps Tighty who gets blown away on days like today, so the earlier the better.

Please don't get a curly lip if he does not back your stuff, we simply can't back everything, but it does not matter - other readers get to choose who to follow & what to back. That's the whole idea.

Note also that Fred already has a position on Silviano Conti, £10 @ 20/1 for the King George/Gold Cup double, down to Adzy, (who also gave us that lovely 9/2 on Vautour yesterday), so that may affect how we bet in the Gold Cup.

We go into Day 4 with a little bit of profit, & if we lose it, so be it, it's been a great week for Fred. Back in the day - 35 years ago - I'd go to all 3 days of Cheltenham, & have £800 in my pocket, around £40 per race, & I can remember going 3 years without a winner on one occasion, so I can handle a bad day. So if we break even, that's a result afaic.

Horror fact - my first Cheltenham for punting purposes was 1967, when the Triumph Hurdle was won by the oh so good Persian War. In all those years (minus a 10 year sabbatical, destroyed by Lord Camel), I have never once backed the winner of the Triumph Hurdle.

I went close in 1981, I'd been backing Broadsword all winter, & had bundles on him at fancy prices, think he went off @ 2/1, & was well clear with the race sewn up. Then....then, unbelievably, Baron Blakeney (who?) came from nowhere & turned us over up the hill, think he was a 66/1 shot, trained by a newbie to NH racing, one Martin Pipe. Whatever became of him?

Oops, sorry, got carried away there. I've got an Article to write, best get off.

Have a great day lads.

[tikay]

Today's weather forecast for Cheltenham is here.


http://www.theweathernetwork.com/uk/weather/united-kingdom/south-west-england/cheltenham-gloucestershire?gclid=CIP12_LnpMQCFQLMtAodP3UAFw


Cliffs - going to be pretty cold, with some rain from time to time.