Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Betting without Chelsea best market in Premier League betting:

4/9 Man City,

10/3 Arsenal,

 9/1 Man Utd,

12/1 Liverpool.



http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/w-o-chelsea

City at 1.59 on betfair is too short, isn't it?

got four runners against them


i expect i will get told that their run in is "easy"

here it is

 Man City V West Brom
   Sat 21 Mar    12:45    

April 2015

   Premier League    

Crystal Palace V Man City
   Mon 6 Apr    20:00    
   Premier League    

Man Utd V Man City
   Sun 12 Apr    16:00    
   Premier League    

Man City V West Ham
   Sun 19 Apr    13:30    
   Premier League    

Man City V Aston Villa
   Sat 25 Apr    17:30    

May 2015

Tottenham V Man City
   Sat 2 May    15:00    
   Premier League    

Man City V QPR
   Sat 9 May    15:00    
   Premier League    

Swansea V Man City
   Sat 16 May    15:00    
   Premier League    

Man City V Southampton
   Sun 24 May    15:00

[tikay]

4/9 Man City,

10/3 Arsenal,

 9/1 Man Utd,

12/1 Liverpool.

Those prices seem ludicrous to me, given the current league table.

Must be value in opposing Man City, not sure how though. 1 point ahead of The Arse, 2 ahead of Man U & 4 ahead of Livepool, all of whom currently have momentum.

[Eso Kral]

Some quality stuff on there from the Dubai fella though.

Would rather give it to an addict than a Nit. At least you have a shot at glory!

Magic.

Dubai scared the life out of me with some of his ideas. I had a mixture of awe & fear when I read some of his thoughts. He was one of the gang who got Fred to back 5 or 6 horses in the Sun Alliance one year, think we had £900 at risk.

He's got worse lately - I think he is sort of in business with Up-Down Eso Kral. Now that IS scary.

I bumped into a kid called Kev Allen recently, bit of a running mate of Dubai, & I asked him to remind me of the tale of the Tote Jackpot coup one night at Romford dogs, which Dubai & Kev plotted.

Long story short, they needed £40,000 to cover every permutation, so they duly polled up at Romford dog track on the night with £40,000 in cash. In a carrier bag. Apparently, it took the tote staff an hour just to bloody count it.

That was the story, anyway.

Luckily there are some other shrewd's involved!

[TightEnd]

4/9 Man City,

10/3 Arsenal,

 9/1 Man Utd,

12/1 Liverpool.

Those prices seem ludicrous to me, given the current league table.

Must be value in opposing Man City, not sure how though. 1 point ahead of The Arse, 2 ahead of Man U & 4 ahead of Livepool, all of whom currently have momentum.

simply lay Man City and have the other teams all batting for you?

i am of course not sure what is true and what is not in the current media narrative but we have

- knocked out of europe
- lose at liverpool
- lose at burnley
- pellegrini under pressure
- who will be next? manager talk
- aguero not scoring (though this could change at any game)

and the suggestion that its not a happy camp (as it wasn't in the last few months of Mancini)

anyway, i just throw it out there.

[McGlashan]

Amended to Baldy prices for Fred purposes
1/2 Man City,

3-1 Arsenal,

 8/1 Man Utd,

12/1 Liverpool.

Those prices seem ludicrous to me, given the current league table.

Must be value in opposing Man City, not sure how though. 1 point ahead of The Arse, 2 ahead of Man U & 4 ahead of Livepool, all of whom currently have momentum.

Ideally we'd lay City but you're going to have to go higher than 1.59 on Betfair and hope to get matched in a low liquidity market.

Now that Baldy has priced it up we could get on Arsenal right now at 3-1. They have the slightly better run in and are trading at 2-1 for a Top 2 finish on Betfair which is essentially the same thing as the w/o Chelsea market.

[Eso Kral]

Some quality stuff on there from the Dubai fella though.

Would rather give it to an addict than a Nit. At least you have a shot at glory!

Magic.

My personal fav was

Deposit my bottle

If u wanna keep it then bothered. Its £200, less than the cost of the slippers im wearing

I didn't know Dubai then like I do now but the first time I met him he greeted me in a velour tracksuit with Essex in gold letters on the back and some Ugg (we will call them mugg as in male uggs) slippers which he then told me we're not the expensive ones!

[DungBeetle]

4/9 Man City,

10/3 Arsenal,

 9/1 Man Utd,

12/1 Liverpool.

Those prices seem ludicrous to me, given the current league table.

Must be value in opposing Man City, not sure how though. 1 point ahead of The Arse, 2 ahead of Man U & 4 ahead of Livepool, all of whom currently have momentum.

I agree.  Safe option is to lay City, but Man Utd look massive to me on the face of it.  I assume they have a dog of a fixture list?

[McGlashan]

4/9 Man City,

10/3 Arsenal,

 9/1 Man Utd,

12/1 Liverpool.

Those prices seem ludicrous to me, given the current league table.

Must be value in opposing Man City, not sure how though. 1 point ahead of The Arse, 2 ahead of Man U & 4 ahead of Livepool, all of whom currently have momentum.

I agree.  Safe option is to lay City, but Man Utd look massive to me on the face of it.  I assume they have a dog of a fixture list?

A bit.

Liverpool away
Villa home
M City home
Chelsea away
Everton away
West Brom home
Palace away
Arsenal home
Hull away

Arsenal, Pool and Man United all play each other so City do have the easier run in.

[tikay]

It's a really interesting spot, this "without Chelsea" market.

Every angle has pros & cons.

Momentum seems important to me, that points the same way for all bar Man C, who are going exactly the opposite way. 

It can all change so quickly though.

[Chompy]

Seems an obv spot to be backing the Arse imo, last price done on the machine 2-1.

I'd be more surprised to see Arsenal drop points at Newcastle than City to drop them at home to Boing Boing.

Either flick in a mega chunk and lay some back, or just back at 3-1 imo.

[Larry David]

Arsenal v liverpool. Man u v Arsenal. Arsenal v Liverpool. Chelsea v Arsenal

Liverpool 11/2 w/o chelsea/man city
Man utd 7/2 w/o chelsea man city

Man city do have the easier fixtures,the other 3 teams are probably playing as good as they can play.

Liverpool 6/1
Man utd 5/1.  Top north west club

Liverpool 11/2 the better option if you like liverpool chances,rather take on Arsenal than man city?

[tikay]

Seems an obv spot to be backing the Arse imo, last price done on the machine 2-1.

I'd be more surprised to see Arsenal drop points at Newcastle than City to drop them at home to Boing Boing.

Either flick in a mega chunk and lay some back, or just back at 3-1 imo.

Define "mega chunk".

£10? £15? £17.50?

And we don't flick in, we is grown ups.

[BigAdz]

Much as I would love to see my team finish second or even winthe title, i think looking at the remaining fixtures, it should be remembered no matter how well The Arse are playing at a point in time, as soon as they play a team in the top 4, the wheels come off.

I have stayed away from the "Wenger Out" stuff so far this season, but I'm convinced when we play well, it's the players true ability shining through, rather than astute Wenger tactics playing their part, or we would surely never have this top team hoodoo.

Of the momentum teams, i have to think Manure look the value.

[arbboy]

Seems an obv spot to be backing the Arse imo, last price done on the machine 2-1.

I'd be more surprised to see Arsenal drop points at Newcastle than City to drop them at home to Boing Boing.

Either flick in a mega chunk and lay some back, or just back at 3-1 imo.

This is a no brainer.  Skybet are 10/3 for those who can get on as well - the skybet ante post football guy is absolutely clueless when it comes to pricing stuff like this up.  Out of all the prices Liverpool are easily the worst of the four as they are in forless points than Manure for the rest of the season (see link below this takes away all argument of who has the easiest schedule left because each game is factored into the points quote for each team - Arsenal clearly have the easiest schedule left out of Ars/Manure/lolapool) and they have a huge GD disadvantage which the spread quotes don't factor in which effectively puts them a further point behind.  Given Sporting only have Arsenal 2 points behind Man City for the end of the season (Manure are 6.5 points inferior with more inferior GD as well) and if they did catch/pass Man City the slight GD advantage Man city have would probably be eroded as well this is very close to a flip and nowhere near the 10/3 price skybet have put out.  Happy to go with Chompy as close to a max bet on Arsenal in this spot at this price.

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football-domestic/premier-league/mm4.uk.meeting.4719890/premier-league-points-2014-2015


http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/table - for GD purposes

[tikay]

Seems an obv spot to be backing the Arse imo, last price done on the machine 2-1.

I'd be more surprised to see Arsenal drop points at Newcastle than City to drop them at home to Boing Boing.

Either flick in a mega chunk and lay some back, or just back at 3-1 imo.

This is a no brainer.  Skybet are 10/3 for those who can get on as well - the skybet ante post football guy is absolutely clueless when it comes to pricing stuff like this up.  Out of all the prices Liverpool is easily the worst of the four as they are in from less points than Manure for the rest of the season (see link below this takes away all argument of who has the easiest schedule left because each game is factored into the points quote for each team) and they have a huge GD disadvantage which the spread quotes don't factor in which effectively puts them a further point behind.  Given Sporting only have Arsenal 2 points behind Man City for the end of the season (Manure are 6.5 points inferior with more inferior GD as well) and if they did catch/pass Man City the slight GD advantage Man city have would probably be eroded as well this is very close to a flip and nowhere near the 10/3 price skybet have put out.  Happy to go with Chompy as close to a max bet on Arsenal in this spot at this price.

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football-domestic/premier-league/mm4.uk.meeting.4719890/premier-league-points-2014-2015


http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/table - for GD purposes

oioi, Argue is back.

That's a typically concise summing up, & makes the whole thing easier to grasp.

Thanks Argue.