Tips for Tikay

[OverTheBorder]

Sky allows me up to £600 on Arsenal 100/30. How muggy does that make me lol??

Have the £600 on then see what happens to your account.  All accounts will be like that who bet smaller amounts.  Doesn't make you a mug at all.  Just means your business hasn't hit their radar yet.

Have the £600 on and see what happens to my marriage

[arbboy]

You can back Portland at 1/12.  The bet is identical to being able to lay a 200/1+ shot (say Liverpool to win the EPL this season or Andy Hamilton to win next year's world darts or Matthew Stevens to win the world snooker) at 12/1 to win their event and your money will only be tied up for a maximum of 3 weeks.  What is not to like?  Why is this considered a 'risky' bet by the masses if you stake accordingly to your bank roll?

Identical in terms of what?  tied up until one of them 'Great moments in sport' is created and forever repeated on sky sports which will haunt you forever.  Matthew stevens wins the world title.

Yes the 1/12 Portland does look like it will come home but to say thunder have no chance is madness, if portland had a 1/8 game run which is very possible, it happens in sport and thunder go on a 7/8 tear. we have a tie at the top.  I hear what you are saying but you have to avoid the impossible happening so many times, just takes one of these 1/20 to go tits up without any hedging and you are looking at needing another 20 to break even if you are going with level stakes.  Just trying to get a grasp on if you are running these bets out or hedging on a 1/8 which is 100% a 1/20shot etc.

I am not saying it can't happen i am saying it will happen more than 92.5% of the time.  That's all i need to make money on the bet long term.  You seem to struggle with the basic maths of punting and staking as part of a sensible staking plan/bankroll unless you are trolling not entirely sure.  If i have a roulette wheel and i have some punters who want to bet 12/1 a number i might lay a few winners but i should be laying 36/1.  Even if i can only lay one number each spin i will be more than happy to lay 12/1 about zero coming in even if zero does the unthinkable and comes in 3 times in a row.  I have won ev on all three lays.

Why would i need to hedge?  Why can't you just back a 1/100 shot at 1/12 and win long term in exactly the same way as you back a 12/1 shot at 20/1 and win long term with correct bankroll management and staking?

As i said before if you wish to accommodate me on these bets i am more than happy to bet against you.  I struggle to get on and i am always looking for new layers to accommodate me.  You seem to think it is shelling peas laying 1/12 shots maybe you should have a go laying them to me if you have such an edge.

OKC are roughly a 10000/1 shot to close the season 15-0 having just priced up their remaining 15 games just to add some real maths to the equation.  

How likely do you make Portland going 1-7 in their next 8 games AND okc going 7-1 in their next 8 games?  You say it is very possible?  How possible?  Numbers please.  We talk in numbers on this thread.

You also don't say what happens if i back 50 winners in a row at 1/12 which should be 1/100 which is probably more likely than the scenario you give.  I can then afford 4 greatest moments in sport in a row at 1/12 and still be 2 units up.

[Nico29]

You can back Portland at 1/12.  The bet is identical to being able to lay a 200/1+ shot (say Liverpool to win the EPL this season or Andy Hamilton to win next year's world darts or Matthew Stevens to win the world snooker) at 12/1 to win their event and your money will only be tied up for a maximum of 3 weeks.  What is not to like?  Why is this considered a 'risky' bet by the masses if you stake accordingly to your bank roll?

Identical in terms of what?  tied up until one of them 'Great moments in sport' is created and forever repeated on sky sports which will haunt you forever.  Matthew stevens wins the world title.

Yes the 1/12 Portland does look like it will come home but to say thunder have no chance is madness, if portland had a 1/8 game run which is very possible, it happens in sport and thunder go on a 7/8 tear. we have a tie at the top.  I hear what you are saying but you have to avoid the impossible happening so many times, just takes one of these 1/20 to go tits up without any hedging and you are looking at needing another 20 to break even if you are going with level stakes.  Just trying to get a grasp on if you are running these bets out or hedging on a 1/8 which is 100% a 1/20shot etc.

Learn how to quote!

[exstream]

If another arb challenge thread is made, don't delete before i can read it

[arbboy]

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

Just to add a little bit of additional maths to the Portland bet.  This guy has an incredibly advanced statistical model for predicting the nba.   He makes portland 1/500 to win their division and okc 500/1.

[Larry David]

No problem Tikay,feel free to delete it as you wish.

[TightEnd]

If another arb challenge thread is made, don't delete before i can read it

i have put it in another thread, easier to follow than have it in here

if it doesn't develop, nothing lost

also, if it kicks off as Larry is like a woodpecker with a tasty tree bark in his relentless posts, its easier for me to sort

[Larry David]

surely an all in job with no hesitation

[tikay]

No problem Tikay,feel free to delete it as you wish.

No no, we don't want to delete, buit it's just drowning Fred a bit, that's all.

The new thread is up, here.....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=65169.0

[Larry David]

If another arb challenge thread is made, don't delete before i can read it

i have put it in another thread, easier to follow than have it in here

if it doesn't develop, nothing lost

also, if it kicks off as Larry is like a woodpecker with a tasty tree bark in his relentless posts, its easier for me to sort

haha, that is me done for a while so no need.

[aaron1867]

I can see a pattern emerging here

can already see the future

Maybe a thread could be started that willing contributors could ship some money that could be traded on in running tennis matches? Is that what you are think Aaron?

doesn't have to be tennis, but there seems to be a definite pattern emerging with posts

edit - just seen other "thread" too, something definitely sitting right with me

[tikay]

What an interesting setting for a Football Stadium - Monaco's gaff.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

and the angle from the left hand side of the photo above

[tikay]

and the angle from the left hand side of the photo above

Given the scarcity & therefore ridiculous price of land in Monaco - they squeeze stuff into the smallest & most unlikely plots - the ground the stadium sits on must be worth tens of millions.

Not sure how a club like Monaco finances itself - no Sky Sports handouts there - how do they manage?

[TightEnd]

"In December 2011, two-thirds of the club was sold to an investment group led by Russian billionaire Dmitry Rybolovlev. With Rybolovlev's financial backing, the club quickly returned to Ligue 1."

with that funding, and the tax advantages of living in Monaco, they can attract some players....