Tips for Tikay

[superwomble]

Just a slight pedantic point on the Dover bet - we can still be relegated. We have 56 points, Welling in the final relegation spot have 37 points with 7 games to go so can get 58.

[tikay]

I know you like the monthly figures to look as good as possible so it will be mathematically certain the Raptors have won their division in the NBA within the next week so that can be settled as and when it happens to get us closer to the black for March.

Well that would be nice, & yes, blue numbers are nice, but over the long term, it does not really matter what month they go in.

For the record, the system we use is ultra prudency - we take all losses as soon as possible.

The NBA stuff will give us a nice fillip, for sure.

[Marky147]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-20/an-nfl-offensive-lineman-just-published-an-insanely-complex-study-in-a-math-journal?hootPostID=936d72ae550cfdff57fb982224b0eac2

Interesting chap...

[TightEnd]

Posting this a bit early but like 6/4 Luton v Wycombe over 2.5 total goals.Reading all the local interviews and listening to Stills comments it appears Luton will be naming an offensive lineup leaving them exposed at the back with a second string keeper.Not sure this price will last on Tuesday evening.

i forgot to confirm

this is date and time stamped

22/03/2015 12:54PM
Single
To Win
£ 20.00
Over - Luton v Wycombe - Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 @ 6/4

price is still there

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/luton-v-wycombe/total-goals-over-under

[TightEnd]

Going to get this up early, surely this price can't be around for long?

England V Lithuania (Friday)

England to win to nil - 8/13 - 365

Odds on, but lots of firms priced up a lot shorter. I don't believe that England have ever conceeded a goal against a lowly ranked team, so this seems a decent odds on price. I can't see how England will even let the hosts have a decent chance, never mind letting one in.

8/13 is surely generous when we are 1/8,1/9 & even 1/10 in places

others have commented on this already

here are the links, not difficult to find, for some background research

i would contend that anything pre 2012 qualifying is irrelevant

england 2012 qualifying http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2012_qualifying_Group_G

2014 qualifying http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_%E2%80%93_UEFA_Group_H

lithuania's national team http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuania_national_football_team

4/7 best, derived from 1/8-1/10 outright

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/england-v-lithuania/to-win-to-nil

why isn't 4/7 just a fair reflection of the true odds here?

i suppose we could have some each way goalscorer fun and games later in the week when the line up is confirmed

[doubleup]

Re England bet - I think there is a chance that the books models might be inaccurate in one sided games.

Aaron presumably suggested bet everyday for the 8/13 win to nil - they were 1/10 England at the time the 8/13 was available, so that certainly seems odd.  

Have a look at the BMU history click on the "All history" wtf is going on there 1/7 - 1/10 - 1/7 - 1/10 etc

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/england-v-lithuania/winner/bet-history/england/today

[arbboy]

England are tight 1/7 on bf for good 4 figure money.  No point using 1/8 and 1/10 quotes which have plenty of margin built into them.

[The Camel]

Guess I had bettter quickly add, in case anyone thinks I'm serious, that "Misc" is, measured by any reasonable yardsticks & sample size, far & away our most profitable activity.

Bets placed = 142

Amount staked = £5,793

Amount won = £1,956.70

ROI = 33.77%

How do these things happen?

PS - Football is our most profitable activity by amount won.

Bets placed = 1,123

Amount staked = £34,891

Amount won = £2,591

ROI = 7.43%


And our third most profitable activity, albeit limited sample size?

Baseball!

Bets placed = 42

Amount staked = £1,823

Amount won = £1,037

ROI = 56.9%


Who would have predicted that 1-2-3?

What has happened to our friend Singhee?

[The Camel]

Just found his last post.

Not logged into blonde since then (August last year).

Hope he comes back when the school summer holidays start.

[tikay]

Guess I had bettter quickly add, in case anyone thinks I'm serious, that "Misc" is, measured by any reasonable yardsticks & sample size, far & away our most profitable activity.

Bets placed = 142

Amount staked = £5,793

Amount won = £1,956.70

ROI = 33.77%

How do these things happen?

PS - Football is our most profitable activity by amount won.

Bets placed = 1,123

Amount staked = £34,891

Amount won = £2,591

ROI = 7.43%


And our third most profitable activity, albeit limited sample size?

Baseball!

Bets placed = 42

Amount staked = £1,823

Amount won = £1,037

ROI = 56.9%


Who would have predicted that 1-2-3?

What has happened to our friend Singhee?

Last time I heard, he was busy in real life, & never had time to Post stuff. Pretty sure he said something along those lines.

He seemed to be amazingly good at MLB, though the bulk of our profits were not from him, they came from the "Season" stuff last year. Think that was Tighty's stuff, can't quite recall.

Oddly, I was on this site (below) last night, hoping to catch a few games when in Vegas. Some no-good sort introduced me to the game in 2013 (?) & now I'm hooked, I sing the song & everything. 

Here's the June schedule......



http://www.milb.com/schedule/index.jsp?sid=t400&m=6&y=2015

[vegaslover]

Pretty sure Singhee posted that he wouldn't be on for months. Liked his bets, was an auto for me and many others I expect

[The Camel]

Clear your throat.



50:50 I'm coming to Vegas this year.

But I'm a 1.01 to go to a game if I make it out there.

[tikay]

Clear your throat.



50:50 I'm coming to Vegas this year.

But I'm a 1.01 to go to a game if I make it out there.

I attended a 51ers game last year - same seats as you & me had - & Longy was sat a few seats along. Incred.

[Tal]

If Enrico Palazzo is singing the National Anthem, I'm in.

Otherwise...still in.

[The Camel]

Clear your throat.



50:50 I'm coming to Vegas this year.

But I'm a 1.01 to go to a game if I make it out there.

I attended a 51ers game last year - same seats as you & me had - & Longy was sat a few seats along. Incred.

I'll never forget the guy in front heckling the rubbish player (he was hitting like 0.150) with the new shoes. He called them "Nike Benchwarmers"

The player proceeded to hit the longest home run I've ever seen.