the County Championship begins next weekend
the usual, two divisions, two up from 2 to 1
16 rounds, teams play home and away
Division OneA very competitive division. Yorkshire won it last year and are priced up as favourites again. they will face more losses to England, but the superb academy talent will keep them competitive
http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-1/county-championship-division-1/winneryou can make a case for 8 of the 9 here. Warwicks, Notts, Durham, Sussex can all challenge and win it (I like Notts of the front 4 in the market). Somerset have new coaching, strong bowling line up. Hampshire have a lot of batting but the bowling attack is weak compared to some. Only Worcs are "bunnies" and shouldn't have a shout at being competitive to win it
squad depths are all better than they were and the advantage any team has from good overseas recruitment is reduced compared to previous seasons because the players tend to come for short term spells these days
we can get 1/5 top three places, and in each of the last three years the field has been bunched going into September
Two years ago i put up Middlesex e/w at 7/1 and they were top 3 for a while and faded to be 5th. we had to deal with Rogers being picked for the Ashes late on, which was crucial, removing runs from the team into the season run in
last year Middlesex fell away and finished 7th of 9
this year their overseas captain Voges has been picked for the Ashes tour, and will need to be replaced
However, negative sentiment abounds and we can get them this year at 14-1
why might this be a value bet?
a) the bowling attack is very strong, especially as Lords typically does a lot til mid summer when the wickets typically flatten . Finn hasn't been chosen to tour the WI and Harris, Murtagh, Roland Jones and Sandhu will all turn sides over
b) Sam Robson didn't quite convince as an Egland opener, but alongside Nick Compton it is an opening partnership you could put up against any in the division. neither too likely to get another England call, which is good for the county
c) the middle order will be strengthened compared to what we know now, to replace Voges
It is a very even division indeed and i couldn't have Middlesex 14-1 8 of 9 in it
Recommend: £10 e/w Middlesex at 14/1 Coral 1/5 1,2,3Division TwoA lot less depth in this division, a few sides will spend up to salary cap but most will be well under.
Lancashire and Surrey are big budget test match venue clubs in the weaker division and it would be a surprise if one were not promoted. Lancashire look most likely to me, very strong squad. Last years squad plus Alviro Peterson on a kolpak should be a good favourite to win it
http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-2/county-championship-division-2/winnerAway from the "big two" i couldn't have Kent (small budget, plenty of young batting talent, could be one day contenders at a price but bowling sides out is an issue), glamorgan (loss of Allenby is nasty), Gloucs (lost both Gidmans to div one, rebuilding) and Leics (might as well be a minor county)
Because in this 9 runner race, paying 3 places e/w we can say its unlikely that 4 of the runners will hit the frame, we can look at the others to see which appeal
Essex have potential, but are too short at 5/1. Northants also have a lot of potential but i don't see a lot of bowling depth. the home tracks at Wantage road are tricky to force results on too.
Derbyshire are my idea of e/w value against Lancashire. Last year Mark Footitt took 82 wickets in the division and returns to a side that finshed 4th last year a win behind Essex who finished 3rd just outside the promotion spots
the likes of Madsen and Durston (with Gupthill, Dilshan sharing the overseas) will keep the batting competitive and we're getting 8-1 Derbyshire, 5-1 Essex
importantly, the ground at Derby is one of the least reliable in the country, results are frequent and with 16 points for a win and 5 points for a draw (plus the batting/bowling bonus points) you need to be playing on result wickets. Derbyshire are, generally
Recommendations
£20 Win Lancashire at 7-2 Sportingbet
£10 e/w Derbyshire at 8-1 Ladbroke, Coral 1/5 1,2,3
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