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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16742403 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #98715 on: April 10, 2015, 07:41:46 PM »

won by 20, championship game monday night / tues mornng 2 am

definitely funking for Wisconsin to beat Kentucky however unlikey that may be.


Good work Moony, well done.

Think we have £20 @ 10/1, but it's win only.

I think we should maybe consider a little saver, or balance the book a bit. 

Morning Tikay?  Do you think Wisconsin are too big a price or is £20 too high a stake.

Talking of hedges, since we stopped backing Jordan Spieth he is in outrageously good form.   This is obviously in the price, but our friends at BFSB are offering 7 places and laying a bet.  The 11/1 they are offering matches the exchange price and you basically get an extra place for free.  The exchange is 3/1 5 places and we get 7 places at 11/4.

So it is probably a tiny bit of +EV, but also helps stop that yuck he's winning again feeling I keep getting when I see the results. 



Pleased to report I am not getting that "yuck he's winning again feeling" anymore.  No doubt BF Sportsbook will be looking to limit me to 3 places after this.
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tikay
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« Reply #98716 on: April 10, 2015, 07:46:00 PM »

won by 20, championship game monday night / tues mornng 2 am

definitely funking for Wisconsin to beat Kentucky however unlikey that may be.


Good work Moony, well done.

Think we have £20 @ 10/1, but it's win only.

I think we should maybe consider a little saver, or balance the book a bit.  

Morning Tikay?  Do you think Wisconsin are too big a price or is £20 too high a stake.

Talking of hedges, since we stopped backing Jordan Spieth he is in outrageously good form.   This is obviously in the price, but our friends at BFSB are offering 7 places and laying a bet.  The 11/1 they are offering matches the exchange price and you basically get an extra place for free.  The exchange is 3/1 5 places and we get 7 places at 11/4.

So it is probably a tiny bit of +EV, but also helps stop that yuck he's winning again feeling I keep getting when I see the results.  



Pleased to report I am not getting that "yuck he's winning again feeling" anymore.  No doubt BF Sportsbook will be looking to limit me to 3 places after this.


He is playing wonderfully, hope you and the other members of Team Spieth get the lot.

Edit - he has just birdied another.
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« Reply #98717 on: April 10, 2015, 07:50:37 PM »

Could probably lay back £100 now at 12 for the US Open if you want, although it would mean tieing up a bag and a bit until Juuuuune.
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« Reply #98718 on: April 10, 2015, 07:54:29 PM »

Could probably lay back £100 now at 12 for the US Open if you want, although it would mean tieing up a bag and a bit until Juuuuune.

thank you, but we'll have to leave it for now

haven't got working capital to tie up that amount this far out

hopefully nearer the time he'll be shorter still, go off maybe single figures favourite if he brings this home in style
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« Reply #98719 on: April 10, 2015, 07:57:41 PM »

i almost hesitate to ask

but with the market offering a "without Speith" market already

and with the rest of the field adrfit/prices all marching out to 20-1+

who is the each way value for the places?

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tikay
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« Reply #98720 on: April 10, 2015, 07:59:49 PM »

i almost hesitate to ask

but with the market offering a "without Speith" market already

and with the rest of the field adrfit/prices all marching out to 20-1+

who is the each way value for the places?



Why is Tiger not quoted?
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« Reply #98721 on: April 10, 2015, 08:00:15 PM »

Fingers crossed for Mr Kendall's Hills account.

My mole there informs me they are culling a lot of accounts pre Grand National day.
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« Reply #98722 on: April 10, 2015, 08:00:21 PM »

Do you have weather forecasts for the next two days? Assume if the course dries out or is less windy in the afternoon, for example, the value might be in a bigger price chap further down, given there's not an enormous amount between the rest?
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« Reply #98723 on: April 10, 2015, 08:01:24 PM »

Tiger 80/1 e/w 5 places sportingbet, coral

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/winner
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« Reply #98724 on: April 10, 2015, 08:01:32 PM »

won by 20, championship game monday night / tues mornng 2 am

definitely funking for Wisconsin to beat Kentucky however unlikey that may be.


Good work Moony, well done.

Think we have £20 @ 10/1, but it's win only.

I think we should maybe consider a little saver, or balance the book a bit.  

Morning Tikay?  Do you think Wisconsin are too big a price or is £20 too high a stake.

Talking of hedges, since we stopped backing Jordan Spieth he is in outrageously good form.   This is obviously in the price, but our friends at BFSB are offering 7 places and laying a bet.  The 11/1 they are offering matches the exchange price and you basically get an extra place for free.  The exchange is 3/1 5 places and we get 7 places at 11/4.

So it is probably a tiny bit of +EV, but also helps stop that yuck he's winning again feeling I keep getting when I see the results.  



Pleased to report I am not getting that "yuck he's winning again feeling" anymore.  No doubt BF Sportsbook will be looking to limit me to 3 places after this.


He is playing wonderfully, hope you and the other members of Team Spieth get the lot.

Edit - he has just birdied another.

Couldn't see it from here, sorry



Back Sunday to watch the climax.
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« Reply #98725 on: April 10, 2015, 08:01:57 PM »

Fingers crossed for Mr Kendall's Hills account.

My mole there informs me they are culling a lot of accounts pre Grand National day.


Strange, given they don't have to pay McCoy after this weekend for doing those ridiculous adverts. How is it sports stars struggle to act as themselves?



David Dunn, we want you to look like someone's taken something that was in your possession from you with ease. Can you do that?
« Last Edit: April 10, 2015, 08:12:42 PM by Tal » Logged

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« Reply #98726 on: April 10, 2015, 08:06:59 PM »

Tiger 80/1 e/w 5 places sportingbet, coral

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/winner

Perfect, thank you.
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« Reply #98727 on: April 10, 2015, 08:11:22 PM »

Fingers crossed for Mr Kendall's Hills account.

My mole there informs me they are culling a lot of accounts pre Grand National day.


That would be bad news.

Very strange time to be dong it, just before their biggest day of the year, on a race when few have much of an edge.

Fingers crossed.
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« Reply #98728 on: April 10, 2015, 08:12:29 PM »

Today's practice sessions were a real eye opener in Shanghai. These session threw up more questions than answers which means I am a little uncertain about which way to go, as such, I only have one further bet suggestion for now:

Race Winner: Sebastian Vettel @ 19/2 with the BF exchange. Based on today's data, Mercedes has a big speed advantage, but Ferrari are extremely kind on their tyres and could well do one less stop in the race. Ferrari are in with a shot and the bookies appear undecided. You can currently back Vettel anywhere between 5/1 and 19/2! Suggest a min bet.

I believe there is some other type of big race this weekend - and my bet for that is on Across The Bay at 64/1 with the BF exchange. Not a tip, I know nothing about horse racing and am selecting it purely based on the name!  Tongue

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« Reply #98729 on: April 10, 2015, 08:18:07 PM »

Would you prefer to do min bet on the win at 11.0

and the top 2 finish at 3.0

in effect get the e/w bet that the rest are offering...

or 8-1 at Ladbrokes e/w getting 2.66-1 the place...

especiaily, the value is in the place, isn't it? 

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/chinese-grand-prix/winner

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