Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Happy to support that suggestion, Tighty, not because I have the faintest idea, but I'm assuming you do.

Total Seats - Over/Under Over 25.5 (Liberal Democrat - Outright) Odds: 5/6 Stake: 110.00 Possible Return:  201.63

we double bink if they win 26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33 seats

we break even either side of that on the pair of spreads

if it goes 21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30 we win the 21-30 seat bet as well

i like the look of that "mini book"

[BigAdz]

I think the most worrying aspect f Tightys bet is that a uni lecturer is basing his numbers around the thoughts of a, I think we call them, loltrader at laddies.

[TightEnd]

I think the most worrying aspect f Tightys bet is that a uni lecturer is basing his numbers around the thoughts of a, I think we call them, loltrader at laddies.

no, I am more so than the lecturer. i tried to relate Ford's work to Ladbrokes prices, and try to spot some inefficiencies acorss the parties

Matthew Shaddick and the team at Ladbrokes are good odds compilers. know their stuff and are a useful reference point

if you are into some amateur psephology this is well worth half an hour

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/sports-central/election/

helpfully the new statesman's site www.may2015.com gives forecasts for each constituency too, so with a bit of legwork you can create your own model

[tikay]

psephology though.

I could impress my mates if I could remember that word, or knew how to pronounce it.

[simonnatur]

Quite fancy trying to get the short priced fav beat in the first at Kempton, sire's offspring have a relatively poor a/w record - 7% win out of 99 runs on Kempton polytrack sprints. I'll have a small win bet on Hurricane Alert, whose sire Showcasing by contrast has a good record on the surface - 17% win. Finished 3/4l 2nd in last November maiden, from which the close up 3rd and 4th went on to win races.  
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/kempton/17:45/winner   12/1 in a couple of spots,  11/1 Lads for Fred's fiver?

[TightEnd]

Tal and i have been speaking. Although it might not be too feasible to have a series of individual constituency bets, there are some opportunties around.

they will be a sweat on election night, and if there is any local knowledge out there..putting aside personal voting preferences ideally....it would be good to hear it

Now that 2 party politics is breaking down, this election is much more a series of local battles across the 650 constituences where we can't apply uniform swing on a national basis

this is especially true i think for incumbency effects on LD MP's

Birmingham Yardley is one such constituency

LD with 8% majority in 2010

Lib-Lab marginal

he wrote to me as follows

"Hemming is even money with Coral, Paddy and Betfair; the Labour candidate is even money with some of the others.

The January Ashcroft poll gave Hemming 34% v 30%. That is a 2.5% swing, but the locals are pretty loyal to a popular local politician, who is not seen as being a spineless lib dem. He was in the news again recently for his pro-free speech agenda, in relation to a family court case.

Average person in Yardley is white, middle aged, working and owns their own home. It's not a leafy suburb but it's aspirational left.

Eddie Izzard was in Acocks Green this week, trying to drum up support for the Labour girl. I don't believe they'll get a result in Yardley. I think people will stand by their man and Evens feels like a good price.

Perhaps one to keep an eye on.

Simon"

Seat Calculator | May2015: 2015 General Election Guide has Yardley staying LD with a 3% majority.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/birmingham-yardley/winning-party has evens each of two

Neither of us would want to lay 4/6 Lib dem here

with this incumbency effect of a popular sitting MP,  LD doesn't feel like evens each of two here

recommend LD at evens Yardley betfairsportsbook, size what we are restricted to

[TightEnd]

Quite fancy trying to get the short priced fav beat in the first at Kempton, sire's offspring have a relatively poor a/w record - 7% win out of 99 runs on Kempton polytrack sprints. I'll have a small win bet on Hurricane Alert, whose sire Showcasing by contrast has a good record on the surface - 17% win. Finished 3/4l 2nd in last November maiden, from which the close up 3rd and 4th went on to win races. 
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/kempton/17:45/winner   12/1 in a couple of spots,  11/1 Lads for Fred's fiver?

win only?

[simonnatur]

Yes, win only. 

[TightEnd]

Yes, win only. 

Single - 17:45

Hurricane Alert - |Race Winner|

Odds: 11/1

1 lines at £5.00 per line

Total Stake for this bet: £5.00

Potential Return:£60.00

Time : 15/4/2015-12:07

Receipt No:O/142640973/0000914

[tikay]

Individual constituency bets.

If you think they are value, do them. At least it will give us an interest on Election night, along with our more serious minded psephologyers.

[TightEnd]

Birmingham Yardley

    EVS
    £41.81
    £83.62
    Liberal Democrat
    Birmingham Yardley - Winner

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000140

[tikay]

Birmingham Yardley

    EVS
    £41.81
    £83.62
    Liberal Democrat
    Birmingham Yardley - Winner

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000140

If anyone else has any suggested Constituency bets where we think we can perceive genuine value, please stick them up. A basket of 4 or 5 would do no harm.

Best regards,

Fred's Director of psephologyness

[superwomble]

This any good?

@Betfred: The Conservatives to win 226-250 seats in the General Election now 22/1 (14/1)! http://bfd.me/1CHiapV 

[superwomble]

Best price elsewhere is 16/1.

[arbboy]

Birmingham Yardley

    EVS
    £41.81
    £83.62
    Liberal Democrat
    Birmingham Yardley - Winner

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000140

If anyone else has any suggested Constituency bets where we think we can perceive genuine value, please stick them up. A basket of 4 or 5 would do no harm.

Best regards,

Fred's Director of psephologyness

Are most firms singles only on these bets or do they offer unlimited multi's?  My local seat Stone is 1/100 to be tory.  More likely i die before the election than the tories lose this seat.  There must be another 20 or 30 seats we can combi together at 1/100 to get a bet around 1/3 which is virtually bomb proof if they allow big accas.