Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

This any good?

@Betfred: The Conservatives to win 226-250 seats in the General Election now 22/1 (14/1)! http://bfd.me/1CHiapV 

Highly unlikely. that would be a c5-6% labour lead. 20 days out, its not easy to see what would lead to a 4-5% poll swing from here, either way

260-290 i would think

on a very small scale (ie nothing like the prices trying to tempt muggles into backing the UKIP at 500-1) its an attempt to get money onto an outcome that should be a bigger price

[TightEnd]

Birmingham Yardley

    EVS
    £41.81
    £83.62
    Liberal Democrat
    Birmingham Yardley - Winner

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000140

If anyone else has any suggested Constituency bets where we think we can perceive genuine value, please stick them up. A basket of 4 or 5 would do no harm.

Best regards,

Fred's Director of psephologyness

Are most firms singles only on these bets or do they offer unlimited multi's?  My local seat Stone is 1/100 to be tory.  More likely i die before the election than the tories lose this seat.  There must be another 20 or 30 seats we can combi together at 1/100 to get a bet around 1/3 which is virtually bomb proof if they allow big accas. 

Singles only. 

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-greens-banded

Tighty - Views on this 8/11 exactly 1 seat.  If you take the bf prices (not much liquidity) for under 1.5 and over 0.5 the exactly one price comes to less than 8/11.  Looks a bet to me at the price.

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-greens-banded

Tighty - Views on this 8/11 exactly 1 seat.  If you take the bf prices (not much liquidity) for under 1.5 and over 1.5 the exactly one price comes to less than 8/11.  Looks a bet to me at the price.

my write up last week

"Green

The party has one incumbent, Caroline Lucas in Brighton Pavillion, who won in 2010 with a 2.42% majority which the Green Party is 1/3 to retain with Ladbrokes. The May2015 site forecasts an increased majority and here again we have an incumbent boost from strong local efforts, consistent with this being the flagship constituency of a minor party.

In last year’s European Elections the Greens secured 1.1million votes, finishing ahead of the Lib Dems. The so-called ‘Green Surge’ has continued ever since, and has seen the party’s membership exceed Ukip but the vagaries of the first past the post system for smaller parties count against that increased membership leading to more seats.

I cannot see a likely seat gain for the Greens and William Hill offer us 8/11 the Greens winning one seat the forthcoming election. For reference, 100/30 is available about over 1.5 green seats in May

The top Green targets are

Norwich South - Lib Dem, expected to go Labour

Bristol West - Lib Dem, expected to go Labour

St Ives - Lib Dem, a Lib-Con marginal

Sheffield Central - Labour, a Lib-Lab marginal

One Green Seat at the election: As it is difficult to see two seats, 8/11 is a better price than 1/3 Lucas in Brighton Pavillion for those so inclined. "


updating , brighton pavillion is 2/5 green http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/brighton-pavilion/winning-party

can't see a second win

8/11 should be roughly the same price as the brighton pavillion constituency.

[arbboy]

cheers tighty.  Didn't realise you had done write ups on BE on the GE.  Sorry for restating what you have already stated on there.

[TightEnd]

The World Snooker Championship begins its Crucible play this Saturday as the top 16 play the sixteen qualifiers, who are concluding the final qualifying round currently

The draw for the top 16 seeds has happened, shown on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_World_Snooker_Championship

it is, i think, a lopsided draw

this is important because the market is e/w 1/2 1,2

you can, theoretically, identify a half lacking the depth of the other and try to pick a player to win that half

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/world-snooker-championship/winner

the bottom half is a monster

the third quarter has Ding and Higgins due to meet in the second round then Trump in the quarters

the winner of that quarter meets, assuming all goes to plan, Ronnie from the fourth quarter (and Mark Williams who has shown more appetite for the game in 2015 got the bad draw, ronnie in round 2)

the top half is a bit easier, though selby v maguire in the second round is a tough one for both players..then murphy in the quarters...then theoretically robertson in the semi's

the high seeds in the top half have lacked form most of the season

- selby struggled until he won in china recently

- murphy won the masters in january, but in ranking tournaments has only got past the quarters once

- Robertson won the wuxi early on but has only one quarter final since september

- maguire has two quarters and a semi, none since xmas

- allen semi final in the masters, two finals early on nothing since october

--

whereas the bottom half has players in form, and depth, the top half looks wide open to me

outright prices for the top half players are

robertson 6/1
selby 8/1
murphy 11/1
allen  28/1
maguire 33/1
50/1 bar

i can't see anyone bar those 5 getting to the top half semi. can you?

i was thinking that with the front three looking vulnerable on season long form (albeit they will have been looking to peak for the crucible, they still have to try to do well all season for rankings purposes, and by and large haven't), that the value has to be in taking Allen and Maguire e/w for the title and trying to get a run from one deep in the tournament

allen would have to get through robertson, maguire would have to get through selby/murphy  but i think both offer a lot more value than the front three

thoughts welcome please.  

[doubleup]

Birmingham Yardley

    EVS
    £41.81
    £83.62
    Liberal Democrat
    Birmingham Yardley - Winner

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000140

If anyone else has any suggested Constituency bets where we think we can perceive genuine value, please stick them up. A basket of 4 or 5 would do no harm.

Best regards,

Fred's Director of psephologyness

Are most firms singles only on these bets or do they offer unlimited multi's?  My local seat Stone is 1/100 to be tory.  More likely i die before the election than the tories lose this seat.  There must be another 20 or 30 seats we can combi together at 1/100 to get a bet around 1/3 which is virtually bomb proof if they allow big accas. 

Singles only. 

Multiples are related bets unfortunately.  The value wouldn't be in "certs" but in marginals where if one goes another ten probably go as well.

[arbboy]

Birmingham Yardley

    EVS
    £41.81
    £83.62
    Liberal Democrat
    Birmingham Yardley - Winner

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000140

If anyone else has any suggested Constituency bets where we think we can perceive genuine value, please stick them up. A basket of 4 or 5 would do no harm.

Best regards,

Fred's Director of psephologyness

Are most firms singles only on these bets or do they offer unlimited multi's?  My local seat Stone is 1/100 to be tory.  More likely i die before the election than the tories lose this seat.  There must be another 20 or 30 seats we can combi together at 1/100 to get a bet around 1/3 which is virtually bomb proof if they allow big accas. 

Singles only. 

Multiples are related bets unfortunately.  The value wouldn't be in "certs" but in marginals where if one goes another ten probably go as well.

Yes i appreciate that.  That wasn't my angle.  My angle was purely multiplying together 30 1/100 shots which should be 1/1000 or shorter.

[doubleup]

Birmingham Yardley

    EVS
    £41.81
    £83.62
    Liberal Democrat
    Birmingham Yardley - Winner

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000140

If anyone else has any suggested Constituency bets where we think we can perceive genuine value, please stick them up. A basket of 4 or 5 would do no harm.

Best regards,

Fred's Director of psephologyness

Are most firms singles only on these bets or do they offer unlimited multi's?  My local seat Stone is 1/100 to be tory.  More likely i die before the election than the tories lose this seat.  There must be another 20 or 30 seats we can combi together at 1/100 to get a bet around 1/3 which is virtually bomb proof if they allow big accas. 

Singles only. 

Multiples are related bets unfortunately.  The value wouldn't be in "certs" but in marginals where if one goes another ten probably go as well.

Yes i appreciate that.  That wasn't my angle.  My angle was purely multiplying together 30 1/100 shots which should be 1/1000 or shorter.

Whatever your angle is, they are still related.

[arbboy]

Birmingham Yardley

    EVS
    £41.81
    £83.62
    Liberal Democrat
    Birmingham Yardley - Winner

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000140

If anyone else has any suggested Constituency bets where we think we can perceive genuine value, please stick them up. A basket of 4 or 5 would do no harm.

Best regards,

Fred's Director of psephologyness

Are most firms singles only on these bets or do they offer unlimited multi's?  My local seat Stone is 1/100 to be tory.  More likely i die before the election than the tories lose this seat.  There must be another 20 or 30 seats we can combi together at 1/100 to get a bet around 1/3 which is virtually bomb proof if they allow big accas. 

Singles only. 

Multiples are related bets unfortunately.  The value wouldn't be in "certs" but in marginals where if one goes another ten probably go as well.

Yes i appreciate that.  That wasn't my angle.  My angle was purely multiplying together 30 1/100 shots which should be 1/1000 or shorter.

Whatever your angle is, they are still related.

They are not as related as you think if you put in the safest 15 tory seats and the 15 safest labour seats.  If you just put in the 30 safest tory seats or 30 safest labour seats i agree with you. 

[doubleup]

btw joke orals appear to be a bit tardy updating prices in constituencies.  There was an Ashcroft poll last week that showed improved Tory voting intention in a few marginalish constituencies and they had stale prices for a while.

[doubleup]

Birmingham Yardley

    EVS
    £41.81
    £83.62
    Liberal Democrat
    Birmingham Yardley - Winner

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000140

If anyone else has any suggested Constituency bets where we think we can perceive genuine value, please stick them up. A basket of 4 or 5 would do no harm.

Best regards,

Fred's Director of psephologyness

Are most firms singles only on these bets or do they offer unlimited multi's?  My local seat Stone is 1/100 to be tory.  More likely i die before the election than the tories lose this seat.  There must be another 20 or 30 seats we can combi together at 1/100 to get a bet around 1/3 which is virtually bomb proof if they allow big accas. 

Singles only. 

Multiples are related bets unfortunately.  The value wouldn't be in "certs" but in marginals where if one goes another ten probably go as well.

Yes i appreciate that.  That wasn't my angle.  My angle was purely multiplying together 30 1/100 shots which should be 1/1000 or shorter.

Whatever your angle is, they are still related.

They are not as related as you think if you put in the safest 15 tory seats and the 15 safest labour seats.  If you just put in the 30 safest tory seats or 30 safest labour seats i agree with you. 

I see your point but even in your acca half the bets are related - and the demise of libdems for example would benefit all bets.

Anyway as I said its academic as I realised a few months ago when I clicked on 10 seats that I thought snp could take, only see "singles only"

[JohnCharver]

Probably worth a little £5 ewe on Amidon in the 4.25 Cheltenham tomorrow.

20s with Sads.

3rd, loomed for a bit, nice tip, cheers

edit sp 12/1s aswell just others a bit better handicapped (which is rank vs a maiden)

[tikay]

Probably worth a little £5 ewe on Amidon in the 4.25 Cheltenham tomorrow.

20s with Sads.

3rd, loomed for a bit, nice tip, cheers

edit sp 12/1s as well just others a bit better handicapped (which is rank vs a maiden)

oioi Adzy, ty ty ty.

Think we were on at 16/1 (recommended at 20/1) but no complaints here.

[exstream]

Thnx adz