Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

Peter - if you are still looking to use that freebet, you might want to take a look at the Ecuador v Chile player goal mins if you want to place bet ante post.  It kicks off midnight tonight I think?   I've done payout profiles for a selection of 4 players below so you can see how it works.

I've assumed three scenarios:

1) Player doesn't score
2) Player scores in 40th min
3) Player scores in 40th and 70th min

And assumed you use your full £100 on a single player (although you could do a combination at lower stakes)

The buy prices are

Sanchez (Chile) 34
Valencia (Ecu) 14
Montero (Ecu) 8
Paredes (Ecu) 1

To get max downside at £100 divide each buy price into 100.  If you want to make 2 selections then divide into 50 etc.

So stakes would be

Sanchez £2.90
Valencia £7.10
Montero £12.50
Paredes £100

Winnings/losses for each scenario

Sanchez (99), + 17, +220
Valencia (99), +184, +681
Montero (100), + 400, + 1,275
Paredes (100), +3,900, +10,900

Sanchez looks a little light on the payoff front (but obviously safer).  You could do something like £3 Valencia, £5 Montero, £18 Paredes and cheer on Ecuador.  This would still give you a massive banzai if Paredes (attacking full back) popped up with a second half goal. 

[DungBeetle]

Just to clarify DO NOT do the stakes in the scenarios for all 4 players or you'll have £400 exposure!  Feel free to ask if unsure!

[Doobs]

I wouldn't split stakes on a free bet on the spreads as it feels a bit like each way betting on a normal bet.

If you put £3 on Valencia and he scores, you get nothing unless he scores after 47 minutes and then only £120 of he scores at 90.  £7 gives you payday at 28 minutes and £432 at 90.  I think this difference is huge.  If 2 score I don't think it matters, but that is going to be a very unlikely occurence.

Apologies if the maths is crap, but it is just before 5am here and struggling. 

I'd probably just do the full stakes on him or Montero.

[exstream]

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/5173149/Match-Betting.html

Unicorns of Love 6/4 to beat H2K.

UOL with first pick and blue side, finished 2nd in last split, both teams 3-1 this split. 6/4 is crazy and probably won't be that at the start of the game tomorrow. Could reverse the odds and it would look fine in my opinion.

[DungBeetle]

See your point Doob.  Does the fact that the bet is "re-usable" have any impact on the analysis?  For example if Peter puts on the 3 bets and Valencia scores on 33 mins then you break even (win £57, lose £40, lose £18) .  You then get the opportunity to go again on a different match.  The offer is limited by time, not number of bets.

It feels like in isolation you want the trade that has the least "bid-offer", with the highest volatility, and a low downside to get high leverage.

Spreading selections decreases volatility which is bad, but is there a "value" or being able to fire a second bullet as well given the payout profiles of our bets?

[TightEnd]

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/5173149/Match-Betting.html

Unicorns of Love 6/4 to beat H2K.

UOL with first pick and blue side, finished 2nd in last split, both teams 3-1 this split. 6/4 is crazy and probably won't be that at the start of the game tomorrow. Could reverse the odds and it would look fine in my opinion.

12 Jun 2015 - Unicorns of Love v H2K Gaming - Match Betting

Unicorns of Love @ 6/4

Stake : £25.00
Estimated Returns : £
62.50
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001339/F

Google images for this is a strange strange place

Click to see full-size image.

[Doobs]

I haven't thought about it a lot, but my instinct is one bet is best.  I think the logic follows the same, but too messed up to be absolutely sure. Peter probably doesn't have time for a truckload now anyway.

[Tal]

Click to see full-size image.

This is what I think a house in Budapest looks like every Sunday.

[tikay]

Click to see full-size image.

This is what I think a house in Budapest looks like every Sunday.

Good grief.

And those are grown-ups, right?

[superwomble]

Have been looking at some of the sub-markets for the Copa America and wondered what people's thoughts are on Diego Rolan for top Uruguay goalscorer?

Cavani is odds on favourite at 4/5. Rolan is 7/2 Skuy, 4/1 Vic, but 10/1 at Lads. From what I've been reading he is likely to start up front with Cavani, and he's had 14 goals in 28 starts for Bordeaux, plus 2 goals from 5 caps with Uruguay. Could be a dark horse with a bit of value?

[TightEnd]

from this trader, right?

Mark Stinchcombe ‏@markstinchcombe 13m13 minutes ago

Diego Rolan 10/1 top Uruguay scorer is a great bet. 14 goals in 28 starts for Bordeaux, 2 in 5 caps, likely to start upfront with Cavani.

[DungBeetle]

Have been looking at some of the sub-markets for the Copa America and wondered what people's thoughts are on Diego Rolan for top Uruguay goalscorer?

Cavani is odds on favourite at 4/5. Rolan is 7/2 Skuy, 4/1 Vic, but 10/1 at Lads. From what I've been reading he is likely to start up front with Cavani, and he's had 14 goals in 28 starts for Bordeaux, plus 2 goals from 5 caps with Uruguay. Could be a dark horse with a bit of value?

Does this not feel like it might be a palp?  10-1 verses 4/1?

[superwomble]

Yes that's what prompted me to have a look, I'd been looking at Brazil before I saw that - wondering about Firmino at 7/1 there...

[TightEnd]

thanks

i took a bit of the 10/1 Rolan/ladbrokes while it was there

it can be on or off thread, wait for feedback.....

[TightEnd]

Have been looking at some of the sub-markets for the Copa America and wondered what people's thoughts are on Diego Rolan for top Uruguay goalscorer?

Cavani is odds on favourite at 4/5. Rolan is 7/2 Skuy, 4/1 Vic, but 10/1 at Lads. From what I've been reading he is likely to start up front with Cavani, and he's had 14 goals in 28 starts for Bordeaux, plus 2 goals from 5 caps with Uruguay. Could be a dark horse with a bit of value?

Does this not feel like it might be a palp?  10-1 verses 4/1?

bwin 10-1 too.