Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

No sweat for me, but most of you must have a fair chance of a scoopio, so best of luck!!!

Lots of exclamation marks, just for you, Tikay

[arbboy]

Not often I drop my jaw at an odds on favourite, but have a look at the 2:40 at Stratford tomorrow.

Penglai Pavilion. That's the same one that placed in the Arc, right?

In a Class 4 Novice Hurdle at Stratford?!

Turns out he ran at Hexham the other week, too!

Punctuation...everywhere..!

Be like rocking up at your local golf course and finding you're playing behind Tiger Woods Dustin Johnson.

Won by 22 lengths.

Horse racing folk, is that called a "distance"?

Sorry Tal but I think a distance over the sticks is classified as 30+ lengths so it's called 22 lengths

Correct eso had so many distance winners he knows!

[Eso Kral]

Not often I drop my jaw at an odds on favourite, but have a look at the 2:40 at Stratford tomorrow.

Penglai Pavilion. That's the same one that placed in the Arc, right?

In a Class 4 Novice Hurdle at Stratford?!

Turns out he ran at Hexham the other week, too!

Punctuation...everywhere..!

Be like rocking up at your local golf course and finding you're playing behind Tiger Woods Dustin Johnson.

Won by 22 lengths.

Horse racing folk, is that called a "distance"?

Sorry Tal but I think a distance over the sticks is classified as 30+ lengths so it's called 22 lengths

Correct eso had so many distance winners he knows!

Nah it's just when punting on the distances I was always one of this optimistic punters who had to find a reason not to go overs (unless it was Lingfield where until it was relaid we loved an under) as it's no fun when ur funking for something not to happen in which case you may as well not watch it and give urself less pain!

[Doobs]

Today's tee times & pairings are here.....

http://www.theopen.com/TeeTimes#!/R3

Any value in the match bets today?

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/open-championship/betting-markets

I've looked at them all and nothing really stands out individually so I thought about backing the draw in a few

FWIW I have had

Schwartzel/Rose
Walker/Henley
Grace/Casey
Molinari/Jaidee

Obviously, draws in strokeplay aren't that common but all of these pairings seem evenly matched. Also, apart from possibly Schwartzel/Rose, I can't see any of these players making a big charge up (or indeed a big slide down) the leaderboard

they are all 8/1 with sadblokes and 15/2 general so maybe a squidge of value

Tentatively recc a tenner on each one and a £1 yankee

Tikay is such an action junkie he still wants bets when we* have the top 3 in the betting.  I am just sitting back personally.

I have no idea if these are value or not, but if everybody is 15/2 something my natural inclination is that the correct price on the draw is likely to be bigger than 8/1.  I guess draws are more likely for those close together but have no feel as to whether this puts us below 8/1.

* I see we as in thread, as for some reason my Scott bet didnt work.  I checked Hills last night how big my bet was, having funked hard for him all Friday, turns out the answer was zero.  

I

I did a lot of back testing on the frequency of draws, I'll see if I can find the spreadsheet.  I seem to recall that I thought that when it was an easier course the frequency was higher than a tough course.  I couldn't precisely replicate the parings as I just paired up players with the same score.  Very weirdly, when I actually bet on the draws I lost all the time, but when I did the "pairing up of players with the same score thing" on that tournament, the higher than expected "draws" still occurred.   I can't understand what is going on, other than in the actual matches the players are being competitive and taking risks to beat their opponent, although they might be out of contention for the tournament.


ps I should add that this was on the last day, not day 3 pairings

Sorry for coming back late, have been out for much of the day.  Thinking about this whilst driving around and 8/1 does feel long as most are going to be near 68-70 I guess.  It must be better on a mild day like today too.  I would be very interested in the stats.  Sorry for putting anyone off, as I am now leaning towards these been good bets.  No idea on the actuals for the 4 picked right now.

The overall figure for 4th rounds seems to be 11%.

Hello Doubleup, so 8/1 is bang on the money.  The draw must be more likely in calmer conditions simply because the spread of scores will be wider in the wind.  So if you can select well and the weather is kind, you should be able to make this +EV.  I think there must be an issue with pin placements, as I assume that can mitigate for calm weather to an extent.  All we need to do is work out how to select.  Current score can't be much help as they always pair similar scores on the final day!

[TightEnd]

A loss of £35 yesterday

M Smith was beaten in the first round of the world matchplay darts -£20

Carney scored four tries for Wigan, but not first try scorer -£5

Solomana wasn't first try scorer either -£10

month to date - £25.33


ongoing

cricket



- Steve Smith scored another 58 taking his tally of runs in the Lords test to 273 and won man of the match. He is currently the top run scorer in the series with 339

Click to see full-size image.

- Starc took a wicket. the top Australian bowler stats are congested:  Hazlewood 10 Starc 9 Lyon 9 Mitch 8

- Cook, along with everyone else, failed in the second innings. top Egland batsman stats: Root 212, Stokes 181, Cook 139

county games are ongoing

At Colwyn bay, a smallish ground Glamorgan use once a year for their festival, Lancashire amassed 425-2 with over 350 runs in the day from their Kolpak duo Peterson and Prince

Click to see full-size image.

Warwickshire enter day 3 against Somerset with a first innings lead 319-8 plays 265

Derbyshire made Northants follow on, 245-6 and not yet ahead of Derbyshire

cycling

Sagan 44 points ahead of Griepel for the green jersey despite Griepel' s stage win yesterday



Sky now 15 minutes behind Movistar for the team classification

darts

G Anderson beat Beaton 10-4 to advance to the second round where he will play Suljovic

Chisnall plays Caven today

[doubleup]

Today's tee times & pairings are here.....

http://www.theopen.com/TeeTimes#!/R3

Any value in the match bets today?

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/open-championship/betting-markets

I've looked at them all and nothing really stands out individually so I thought about backing the draw in a few

FWIW I have had

Schwartzel/Rose
Walker/Henley
Grace/Casey
Molinari/Jaidee

Obviously, draws in strokeplay aren't that common but all of these pairings seem evenly matched. Also, apart from possibly Schwartzel/Rose, I can't see any of these players making a big charge up (or indeed a big slide down) the leaderboard

they are all 8/1 with sadblokes and 15/2 general so maybe a squidge of value

Tentatively recc a tenner on each one and a £1 yankee

Tikay is such an action junkie he still wants bets when we* have the top 3 in the betting.  I am just sitting back personally.

I have no idea if these are value or not, but if everybody is 15/2 something my natural inclination is that the correct price on the draw is likely to be bigger than 8/1.  I guess draws are more likely for those close together but have no feel as to whether this puts us below 8/1.

* I see we as in thread, as for some reason my Scott bet didnt work.  I checked Hills last night how big my bet was, having funked hard for him all Friday, turns out the answer was zero.  

I

I did a lot of back testing on the frequency of draws, I'll see if I can find the spreadsheet.  I seem to recall that I thought that when it was an easier course the frequency was higher than a tough course.  I couldn't precisely replicate the parings as I just paired up players with the same score.  Very weirdly, when I actually bet on the draws I lost all the time, but when I did the "pairing up of players with the same score thing" on that tournament, the higher than expected "draws" still occurred.   I can't understand what is going on, other than in the actual matches the players are being competitive and taking risks to beat their opponent, although they might be out of contention for the tournament.


ps I should add that this was on the last day, not day 3 pairings

Sorry for coming back late, have been out for much of the day.  Thinking about this whilst driving around and 8/1 does feel long as most are going to be near 68-70 I guess.  It must be better on a mild day like today too.  I would be very interested in the stats.  Sorry for putting anyone off, as I am now leaning towards these been good bets.  No idea on the actuals for the 4 picked right now.

The overall figure for 4th rounds seems to be 11%.

Hello Doubleup, so 8/1 is bang on the money.  The draw must be more likely in calmer conditions simply because the spread of scores will be wider in the wind.  So if you can select well and the weather is kind, you should be able to make this +EV.  I think there must be an issue with pin placements, as I assume that can mitigate for calm weather to an extent.  All we need to do is work out how to select.  Current score can't be much help as they always pair similar scores on the final day!

warning concentrated tl;dr-ness


That's what I thought - easy conditions = more draws, but in practice I lost money and my strike rate was really very low over a lot of trials.  Also I'm not sure that the evidence is there from my sample.  The US Open is generally played in tough conditions (ok not windy but should have the same effect) and the draws come up at 12%.  In my entire sample the correlation between high scores under par (using the average winning score on the course) and draw % is very weak (.18).

The other issue is that my stats are constructed by listing the players by score and, where they have the same score, assuming that the lower score in round 3 goes out before a higher score (first in with the same score, last out).  While this is quite close it def will result in a lot of simulated matches as opposed to actual matches.  I really can't discount that in actual matches the players are aware of each others score and this alters their behaviour in some way.  

Lads are 8-1 the draw every week (although they usually only price up the later matches) some books are 15/2 all matches, some used to be 15/2 early matches but 8-1 later matches but can't see that anywhere today.  The books would have stats based on actual matches and there is some evidence from my stats that the matches of players in contention to win (later matches) draw less (201/1900 - 10.6%), although that might just be that the early matches in my sampling methodology are more likely to be "actual" matches rather than simulated and the player behaviour effect is real.  They also don't seem to care if a match is close or big fav/underdog, so presumably their stats say that doesn't matter which seems a bit odd.  

[RickBFA]

Just looked at the odds on The Open winner.

Dunne is 20/1 with e/w paying 1/4 odds first 3 places.

Does seem a big price for someone leading into final day.

I appreciate there are lots with chances but he looked super composed and played fear free all day.

Worth an investment at that price?

[The Camel]

Just looked at the odds on The Open winner.

Dunne is 20/1 with e/w paying 1/4 odds first 3 places.

Does seem a big price for someone leading into final day.

I appreciate there are lots with chances but he looked super composed and played fear free all day.

Worth an investment at that price?

Looks the worst ew heat ever to me.

Like betting 1/5th 123 in a 25 runner handicap.

[TightEnd]

just because there are so many players in contention?

it's 18-1 bar Spieth, day, oosthuizen paying 4 places

doesn't the shape of the book counteract the numbers to an extent?

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/open-championship/winner

[The Camel]

just because there are so many players in contention?

it's 18-1 bar Spieth, day, oosthuizen paying 4 places

doesn't the shape of the book counteract the numbers to an extent?

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/open-championship/winner

Spieth being there is the only saving grace for adding to the ew value.

But I'm pretty surprised no bookmaker is 1/4 1234 in such a wide open race.

[The Camel]

I CBA to add up the place % book, but I suspect it's well over 300. The top 3 in the market take up 200 on their own.

When there are horse races every day when they bet overbroke on the place market, seem silly to bet ew in a market with plenty of overround.

I don't hate betting Dunne outright, but make it win only IMO.

[Doobs]

just because there are so many players in contention?

it's 18-1 bar Spieth, day, oosthuizen paying 4 places

doesn't the shape of the book counteract the numbers to an extent?

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/open-championship/winner

I am not sure which way you are arguing, but I am with Camel here.    If you look at Justin Rose, he is 22/1 to win (Betfair and Bookies), so I am guessing about 20/1 for 2nd and 20/1 for 3rd.  So I want over 6/1 the top 3, but we are only getting 5.5/1.  It isn't terrible, but the edge is on the bookies side.

Edit.  On Dunne, I think he is a bit more likely to get 2nd and 3rd than Rose, but still don't think 5/1 is big enough and you lose a lot vs Betfair on the win price too.  I expect quarter first 4 would give us the edge, so think the bookies have got this right by offering quarter first 3.

[The Camel]

I CBA to add up the place % book, but I suspect it's well over 300. The top 3 in the market take up 200 on their own.

When there are horse races every day when they bet overbroke on the place market, seem silly to bet ew in a market with plenty of overround.

I don't hate betting Dunne outright, but make it win only IMO.

I just did it the calculation and it's pretty much bang on 300% for the top 12 in the market if we can get best prices all players. (Show me a punter with a live Bet365, Sportingbet and Betway account, and I'll show you a losing punter).

And there are far more than 12 players capable of making the top 3. I'd definitely have a bet at 3/1 that someone outside the current top 12 in the market places.

If they were betting 1/4 1234 then we could have some fun.

[RickBFA]

OK thanks for the views.

[tikay]

another (possibly stupid) question

what price would you make a play off tomorrow night

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/golf/market/1.119413965

3.25 anyone?

22 players currently seperated by 2 shots

i expected to see much shorter than 9/4

am i wrong?

What price is the play off now?