Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Clever Cookie now the same price as he was the night before winning the Plate!

Now the odds have changed, do you not fancy Snow Sky e/w?  It is a better horse and has some form on heavy, albeit in a bad race.  I was looking at this before the race.  8/1 with a fifth first 3 looks v good if Golden Horn and 7 others take their places.  Problem is I haven't got much visibility on that.  The positive is that the bad ground has been known about for nearly 24 hours and the horses are still in.

I really don't know if we are better betting now or waiting to know if we are screwed on the runners.  I have just backed it, but could clearly be either v good or a big mistake.  Guess I just like to gamble.  

Lets just go for this Tony.  Will bet size smaller than I was going to due to the possibility this goes badly wrong, but can we do 20 e/w Snow Sky in the king george with Victor at 8/1.

Horse looks to have improved this year, has Ascot/soft form and trainer is a master with this type of older horse.

Thanks doobs.

I missed half a point of price, but did it anyway, as I'm a bit all over the place this morning. Tighty is SO much better at this than me. 

Anyway, we now have a few sweats for Ascot this afternoon, so that's something to look forward to. 

FWIW, it tipped with rain here all day yesterday, but it bright & sunny this morning.



£20 EW @ 15/2, Snow Sky, BMU.
15:50

SNOW SKY (EW)

(Horse Racing Outright - Race)

Odds: 15/2

Stake: 40.00

Possible Return:  220.00


BET PLACED

Yuck, down to 8 already, but the horse is shortening on the exchange.  Hold at 8 runners please.

[Peter-27]

Just had a quick look at the post-FP3 markets, can't find anything to recommend at the moment.

[MattyHollis]

Just had a quick look at the post-FP3 markets, can't find anything to recommend at the moment.

FI seemed to go well in FP3 though, lets hope we can see them both competing in Q3 in a little while for our nice little position on the spreads...

[Peter-27]

Just had a quick look at the post-FP3 markets, can't find anything to recommend at the moment.

FI seemed to go well in FP3 though, lets hope we can see them both competing in Q3 in a little while for our nice little position on the spreads...

Yep, that was largely expected when they got over their suspension issue.

[MattyHollis]

Just had a quick look at the post-FP3 markets, can't find anything to recommend at the moment.

FI seemed to go well in FP3 though, lets hope we can see them both competing in Q3 in a little while for our nice little position on the spreads...

Yep, that was largely expected when they got over their suspension issue.

As I said i'm an F1 noob, so forgive me for not possibly stating the obvious in some situations!!

What are your predictions for Nico and Sergio in qualifying and race this weekend?

[tikay]

Jenningsbet have called the Walsall bet a "palpable error" which is unbelievably dirty imo.

that is disgusting

what were they priced up at out of interest?

13/8

I don't think this can be palpable - ever. I can name at least three other firms who were 13/8. If the weather changes in a sporting event and they don't react quickly enough they would probably scream too.

Did you get an email? Can you publish it?

I got on elsewhere, it's a mate whose been fckd by Jennings.

Palpable error and account limited to pennies.

Only good thing is they've done it before the match, which mean he's freerolling. If Walsall fail to win, he just says nothing, but if they win he goes to IBAS.

Clueless.

madness

as joe says there were 3 firms going 13-8 at the time corals were

it should be a no brainer win via ibas albeit after a while. But quite why they have voided it before seeing if they could win is beyond me

BUMPED for Adzy. (As to Jennings).

[Tal]

Tighty (and anyone else), do you think the 11/4 for the Bengals to win the AFC North will last? Plagued by injuries last season, they have a top five defensive unit, a competent offense and have course and distance under their belt. The Ravens and the Steelers have more negatives and the Browns are a laughing stock.

Bengals aren't the punters' choice but they have to be better than third in the divisional market, surely?


Edit: their schedule is slightly better than last year, too, with games against the bills and the texans replacing last season's against the patriots and the colts.

I seem to be mulling one of our bigger bets, here. If I'm saying they should be favourite, say 2/1, that should be a chunky bet, shouldn't it?

Tal we definitely haven't got a top5 Defense with big health question marks over Burfict and Atkins.On offense Eifert,Jones and Andre Smith haven't proved they can last a season.Would wait till end of camp too see injury status as price will never shorten with Dalton sharing a division with rothlisburger and flacco.If Shelton performs Browns could go 8-8 with their defense and o-line

I'm not sure whether that's your own-team pessimism or I'm massively overstating the case. The Bengals obviously have injury worries but your defense was decimated by knocks last season and I think some of the post-Zimmer aftershocks were a factor. A year on and with two decent linebackers, I would be more confident in saying that last year was an anomaly than an indicator of performance for 2015. Marvin Jones is a good WR2 and Hill is a 5 yard per carry running back. Dalton for all his critics gets it done in the regular season.

The Steelers will get all the headlines for their offense, but they don't have the secondary. The Ravens are without Ray Rice and Torrey Smith. Neither will likely go under 8-8 because they are big scorers. The Browns  are 2 seasons away from challenging properly, even if they've made progress in the off season. Manziel starts under center...

It's a tough division to call but the outsider of three is wrong in my view. Bengals are a 10-6 team.

I agree we can wait for camp, but there's an argument for taking the price now if it's there, if we don't think it'll be there in a month. That's as much the point of me asking, in fairness. Will the smart money come in for them or do we ride it out and get 7/2 in September?

[Stopsleyhatter]

Tighty (and anyone else), do you think the 11/4 for the Bengals to win the AFC North will last? Plagued by injuries last season, they have a top five defensive unit, a competent offense and have course and distance under their belt. The Ravens and the Steelers have more negatives and the Browns are a laughing stock.

Bengals aren't the punters' choice but they have to be better than third in the divisional market, surely?


Edit: their schedule is slightly better than last year, too, with games against the bills and the texans replacing last season's against the patriots and the colts.

I seem to be mulling one of our bigger bets, here. If I'm saying they should be favourite, say 2/1, that should be a chunky bet, shouldn't it?

Tal we definitely haven't got a top5 Defense with big health question marks over Burfict and Atkins.On offense Eifert,Jones and Andre Smith haven't proved they can last a season.Would wait till end of camp too see injury status as price will never shorten with Dalton sharing a division with rothlisburger and flacco.If Shelton performs Browns could go 8-8 with their defense and o-line

I'm not sure whether that's your own-team pessimism or I'm massively overstating the case. The Bengals obviously have injury worries but your defense was decimated by knocks last season and I think some of the post-Zimmer aftershocks were a factor. A year on and with two decent linebackers, I would be more confident in saying that last year was an anomaly than an indicator of performance for 2015. Marvin Jones is a good WR2 and Hill is a 5 yard per carry running back. Dalton for all his critics gets it done in the regular season.

The Steelers will get all the headlines for their offense, but they don't have the secondary. The Ravens are without Ray Rice and Torrey Smith. Neither will likely go under 8-8 because they are big scorers. The Browns  are 2 seasons away from challenging properly, even if they've made progress in the off season. Manziel starts under center...

It's a tough division to call but the outsider of three is wrong in my view. Bengals are a 10-6 team.

I agree we can wait for camp, but there's an argument for taking the price now if it's there, if we don't think it'll be there in a month. That's as much the point of me asking, in fairness. Will the smart money come in for them or do we ride it out and get 7/2 in September?

I've got about £300 on the bengals to win it all at various prices between 33-1 and 45-1 so no pessimism from me just trying to keep a balanced view.To answer your question Ravens Steelers and Browns will say everybody is a pro bowler at camp so we'll easily get 3-1 just before the pre season games.

[Tal]

Ha! Good answer!

[youthnkzR]

Any1 got even a slight fancy for the 3.30 at York? Otherwise gonna have to close my eyes and pick a number ^^

[tikay]

Lolblokes such comedy.

They've kept Flintshire and Golden Horn way shorter than everyone else, ready to impose the maximum Rule on both.

Flintshire (10-1, as big as 20-1 elsewhere) just been taken out (wiiiiiiii, 5p Rule 4).

I'd be very surprised if they let Golden Horn run.

Lads are 4-7 about a horse who's pushing evens on the exchanges? yba.

Golden Horn is a non-runner.

[BigAdz]

Morning.

Two little dabbles in the big 7f handicap at 3.15 Ascot. Man, I love these races!

All week I have been really keen on One Word More. He has run a couple of eye catchers in races with a lot of collateral form, and the Easterbys have put up their "job jockey" David Allen, who has already won on the horse.

Sadly, his record at Ascot and in soft ground isn't great, despite some ok efforts, so the bet is somewhat tempered, but at 20s, he has to be a bet. Whatever happens, stick him in your tracker as a big race like this is nigh!

The other one I like is Suzis Connoisseur who will love the ground. Up to now it been a bit of an under achiever, but with first time blinkers and a bit of money from the shrewd Williams stable apparently flicking about, I think its worth including.

Some other paid for services might chuck in one or two others, but lets keep it lowball, and leave some money in the pot for Tals massive bet.

£5 ew Suzi's

£7.50 ew One Word More

Poor runs. Sozzler.

One Word never took off on the slower ground, and Suzis got 5th. Got paid on the 5th with a couple that were betting 5. Good old Frank Spencer forgetting to get on the fav prob means pennies back though....

[Doobs]

Lolblokes such comedy.

They've kept Flintshire and Golden Horn way shorter than everyone else, ready to impose the maximum Rule on both.

Flintshire (10-1, as big as 20-1 elsewhere) just been taken out (wiiiiiiii, 5p Rule 4).

I'd be very surprised if they let Golden Horn run.

Lads are 4-7 about a horse who's pushing evens on the exchanges? yba.

Golden Horn is a non-runner.

Meh, wouldn't have got top 3 anyway

[BigAdz]

Very confused at to what happened in the Frank Spencer race.

First I got paid across several sites, then it was reduced, then I have just noticed it has been paid in full again.

Trust Spencer to be at the centre of it.

[Doobs]

Very confused at to what happened in the Frank Spencer race.

First I got paid across several sites, then it was reduced, then I have just noticed it has been paid in full again.

Trust Spencer to be at the centre of it.

This happened to me on BMU.