Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

How would you price up Birmingham City v Aston Villa in who finishes higher in their respective leagues?

Villa 4/6 Bham 11/10 - Obviously 4 more teams in the championship.  Assume you mean if Villa finish 20/20 and bham finish 21/24 then villa win the match bet?

Thank you.

Yes. Two chaps in the local, debating a straight evens the pair bet on this and I had villa at about 4/6. This is usually the point in the season where I try to take advantage of local team support. Best one was someone who wanted Villa v Spurs in a pickem match bet two seasons ago. Not for arbboy money, mind

I get to pretend I know what I'm on about once a year.

I have pretended to be a manure and lolapool fan at times to Stoke fans to get those season match bets in pubs for small money!

[Omm]

Anyone explain this race to me.

Obviously hoping to hold at 8 and not go to 7.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/pontefract/14:40/winner

Ive had a nudge on Still On Top, Ladbrooks go 7/4 and betfair 16/1. Anybody any thoughts or help as to why

Nice nudge! Missed it personally but well done.

Cheers Omm, new I should have put it up here properly but it came from a punter friend with Info and i didnt have any math's/stats knowledge to back it up .

This also meant i didnt have much on as well

We can all have a punt now and again but I suppose that's what the racing thread is for, share the love on there. That being said if everyone put up what their mate had told them, we who followed would probably be skint.

[Tal]

How would you price up Birmingham City v Aston Villa in who finishes higher in their respective leagues?

Villa 4/6 Bham 11/10 - Obviously 4 more teams in the championship.  Assume you mean if Villa finish 20/20 and bham finish 21/24 then villa win the match bet?

Thank you.

Yes. Two chaps in the local, debating a straight evens the pair bet on this and I had villa at about 4/6. This is usually the point in the season where I try to take advantage of local team support. Best one was someone who wanted Villa v Spurs in a pickem match bet two seasons ago. Not for arbboy money, mind

I get to pretend I know what I'm on about once a year.

I have pretended to be a manure and lolapool fan at times to Stoke fans to get those season match bets in pubs for small money!

The real trick is not then making exactly the same mistake yourself by making daft bets with ar$€nil fans...

[DungBeetle]

How would you price up Birmingham City v Aston Villa in who finishes higher in their respective leagues?

Villa 4/6 Bham 11/10 - Obviously 4 more teams in the championship.  Assume you mean if Villa finish 20/20 and bham finish 21/24 then villa win the match bet?

I'll take 11/10 Arbs if you want to add to our portfolio?  With your rules as stated regarding the extra runners.

[Doobs]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/newcastle/specials

"Newcastle to finish eighth in 15/16 Premier League" at 25/1 catches my eye. Mathematically, there is a 1 in 20 chance, so isn't 25/1 too high? That's before we take out unrealistic positions such as 1st & 2nd too.

To simplfied to say there is a 1 in 20 chance.

34/1 to finish in top 6

3/1 top 10.

So 25% chance they finish in top 10

2.85% chance they finish in top 6

call it 22% chance they finish 7,8,9,10

5.5% chance of each one of them

gives 18/1?

Is this a fair calculation for maths guys. This would say 25/1 seems a good bet to me.

Bear in mind I may have got these figures completely wrong above.

DOOOBS!

Sorry, working again, so can't do quick responses anymore. 

I think you are much nearer the right working than Peter.  Nobody in the premier league is going to have a uniform distribution whereby each position is equally likely. 

I'd probably look at it like this.  Sporting index have Newcastle finishing about 13th/14th on average, so the most likely finishing positions are going to be 12th to 15th.  Plucking numbers from the air (well people will think that anyway, but I have a rough idea of what the distribution will look like in my head), then I'd be saying each of 12th to 15th are probably 9/1 chances (or about 10%)

You have already worked backwards from the odds to give Newcastle a 2.85% chance of finishing top 6.  I'd say we can go from there to get a rough probability of 6th as 2%.  From that and given the gap between the top 5/6 and the rest, 7th is probably 4% and 10th is close to 10%.  I'd probably plump for something like 4%, 5%, 6%, 8% (7th to 10th respectively).  That is both consistent with your percentage estimate of 7th to 10th and fairly consistent with what I think the chances of 12th and 6th are. 

So on a fairly rough and ready calculation, I'd say 8th was about 5% and should be 20/1 ish.  I can't really get on with Shy and neither can thread, but think this is probably a decent enough punt.  I wouldn't go nuts, and it is a bit of a punt, as those numbers could easily be 3%, 4%,6%,8% for 7th to 10th respectively.  Shy may well have a better model than my finger in the air maths.

I should add that Newcastle would probably be the team I am least certain of in the next year.  It seems very unclear what part of that big slump at the end of last year was down to a bad team and what part was down to a bad manager.  They just seemed too bad to be true at the end.  On the Pardiola form, you have to say they are surely capable of top 10, but I wouldn't be the least surprised if they were relegated. 
 

[Buttertubs Pass]

Arb about?

Have a nice bet for you,Leeds rhinos 1/200 top 4 finish in Super league,they are clearly a 1/2000 shot,I think you would agree it would be foolish to pass up on this.

You give so much sound advice I would like to give a little back to show my appreciation.

[tikay]

One for ArgueBoy, I chanced upon this photo this morning.

1/100 I can guess what the convo was about. 1/200 either of you changed your mind.

[Tal]

One for ArgueBoy, I chanced upon this photo this morning.

1/100 I can guess what the convo was about. 1/200 either of you changed your mind.

You offering 200/1 neither of them changed their mind? Shame I'm heavily restricted with TikayBet...

I've been making mistakes like that all week. Good job no one noticed.

I remember when poker players looked like that. I take it this means I am old.

[tikay]

One for ArgueBoy, I chanced upon this photo this morning.

1/100 I can guess what the convo was about. 1/200 either of you changed your mind.

You offering 200/1 neither of them changed their mind? Shame I'm heavily restricted with TikayBet...

I've been making mistakes like that all week. Good job no one noticed.

I remember when poker players looked like that. I take it this means I am old.

Sorry, the price has been slashed, & you are restricted with me.

Don't think I'd ever make a living as a bookie, mind, getting it arse uppy like that.

The photo fascinated me actually, very characteristic posture & body language by both subjects. James ALWAYS stands up very close when he speaks to you. It's most disconcerting, a sort of violation of our personal space.

[horseplayer]

Sean Murray joins wigan on loan from Watford

Cracking signing adds yet more goals

[TightEnd]

sorry for the lack of content. Busy, busy


a quick update ahead of the fourth test

we have £10 at 5-1 on Cardiff being the top scoring Ashes test

Cardiff produced 1269 runs

Lords produced 1235 despite 566 in the first innings

the sportier wicket at Edgbaston produced 806 runs

it is overcast at trent bridge and traditionally swings...


we might have quite the sweat (albeit for a small bet) when we head to the best batting pitch in the country at the oval at the back end of august

[TightEnd]

so Lewis what did you do on your hols?

"oh nothing much, took my dog Coconut surfing..."

...

"Coconut loved it"

[Chompy]

One for ArgueBoy, I chanced upon this photo this morning.

1/100 I can guess what the convo was about. 1/200 either of you changed your mind.

You offering 200/1 neither of them changed their mind? Shame I'm heavily restricted with TikayBet...

I've been making mistakes like that all week. Good job no one noticed.

I remember when poker players looked like that. I take it this means I am old.

Sorry, the price has been slashed, & you are restricted with me.

Don't think I'd ever make a living as a bookie, mind, getting it arse uppy like that.

The photo fascinated me actually, very characteristic posture & body language by both subjects. James ALWAYS stands up very close when he speaks to you. It's most disconcerting, a sort of violation of our personal space.

Proper space invader that guy.

One more time, did we get the rest of the Bury match bet on? The 8-11 is still there.

[Karabiner]

Good job this match was only a "friendly".

http://www.theguardian.com/football/video/2015/aug/04/cska-sofia-fans-chase-ashdod-players-pitch-invasion-video

[tikay]

One for ArgueBoy, I chanced upon this photo this morning.

1/100 I can guess what the convo was about. 1/200 either of you changed your mind.

You offering 200/1 neither of them changed their mind? Shame I'm heavily restricted with TikayBet...

I've been making mistakes like that all week. Good job no one noticed.

I remember when poker players looked like that. I take it this means I am old.

Sorry, the price has been slashed, & you are restricted with me.

Don't think I'd ever make a living as a bookie, mind, getting it arse uppy like that.

The photo fascinated me actually, very characteristic posture & body language by both subjects. James ALWAYS stands up very close when he speaks to you. It's most disconcerting, a sort of violation of our personal space.

Proper space invader that guy.

One more time, did we get the rest of the Bury match bet on? The 8-11 is still there.

You've momentarily lost me there - remind me please. Had a bit of a strange day yesterday, so I'm not up to speed on Fred matters.