Just been having a look over the Eneco Tour, and there's a price I very much like.
Today is the TT stage, and at 14km long, it figures to create some decent time gaps amongst the peloton (who are currently bunched up about 15sec behind the leader). It could be a very important stage in the whole scheme of things, as this year's Eneco Tour, on paper, does not seem to be as selective as in previous years. What I mean by this, is that I expect the time gaps on Stages 5 and 6 to be quite marginal, with only Stage 7 (with its finish on the Muur van Geraardsbergen) providing a real test for the GC candidates.
However, although the Muur van Geraardsbeergen is a daunting challenge for fair-weather cyclists like myself, when it featured in Stage 5 (only 163km) in 2014, exactly 32 riders finished within 6sec of the winner (Greg van Avermaet). When it featured in Stage 7 (208km) in 2013, 18 riders finished within 18sec of the winner. 2012 ... Stage 7, 215km, 25 riders, 30sec). This year, the pivotal Stage 7 is a medium-sized 189km, so I would expect quite a few riders to still be in the GC mix come the end of the race.
What strikes me as curious is that, at the moment, the favourites for GC go something like this:
Greg van Avermaet 4/1
Philippe Gilbert 5/1
Niki Terpstra 8/1
Lars Boom 12/1
Andriy Grivko 12/1
Wilco Kelderman 16/1
Julian Alaphillippe 16/1
Now obviously the bookies know more than I do, but there seems to be a huge recency/nationality bias here based on a combination of past results (in either the Eneco Tour, the Ardennes classics, or the Tour of Flanders) and home favourites (course knowledge? ... crowd support?). What I think the bookies ought to be looking at is time-trialling ability, and with no offence to Boom, Grivko and Kelderman, there isn't much this year.
There is one standout though ...
Matthias Brandle. You might have heard of him because he held the hour record briefly last year before it was smashed to pieces by Dennis, Dowsett and Wiggins. He is a handy TTer, and is suited to today's shortish, flat, non-technical course. In fact, he is second-favourite behind the likely winner Adriano Malori. Now Brandle isn't the best Classics rider in the world, but I expect him to get at least a 30sec advantage over most of his rivals by the end of today's stage. With a short Stage 5 to follow tomorrow, and a good showing on Saturday, I expect him to still have that 30sec in the bank on Sunday. Then it will come down to guts and determination.
Unfortunately, internet pickings on his ambitions are pretty slim, but I have found these two nuggets:
“In the morning meeting, we talked about going for the sprinter’s stages, but also about paying attention to the general classification. So it was essential to protect Jonas Van Genechten and Matthias Brändle. With a time trial that will suit him well, Matthias Brändle really does have a good chance to win the race." Rik Verbrugghe, IAM Cycling directeur sportif.
"Brändle is at his best on the very short courses and a 14km TT is probably a slightly longer than his favourite distance. However, it is pretty similar to what he faced in the Tour where he did well. He has done nothing to hide that he is targeting the GC in this race so his condition should be good even though he hasn’t raced since the Tour. It is time for Brändle to win a WorldTour TT and tomorrow could be his day." pinched from another tipster (shameless).
At 100/1, I think Fred should be on Brandle to win each-way. His odds will defo be a lot shorter tomorrow.
Recommend £5 e/w Matthias Brandle to win the Eneco Tour @ 100/1 (e/w 1-2-3)http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/eneco-tour/winner
Author