Tips for Tikay

[Peter-27]

While we're awaiting a decision, I think this will decide the title.

Either Hamilton retains his big lead and will win the title, or Hamilton will get angry, lose composure and essentially hand the title to Nico. In my opinion only of course.

[Peter-27]

While we're awaiting a decision, I think this will decide the title.

Either Hamilton retains his big lead and will win the title, or Hamilton will get angry, lose composure and essentially hand the title to Nico. In my opinion only of course.

No penalty, tyres were the correct pressure when they went on the car.

[TightEnd]

anyway, force india hit 63 points for the season today. 69 is the spread bet pivot point, for the thread

[Rod]

While we're awaiting a decision, I think this will decide the title.

Either Hamilton retains his big lead and will win the title, or Hamilton will get angry, lose composure and essentially hand the title to Nico. In my opinion only of course.

No penalty, tyres were the correct pressure when they went on the car.

Surprised by this thought it was a sure DSQ. Would quite like to see Nico take it this year but doubt that is happening now. Any thoughts on the championship without Hamilton? Nico seems to be struggling Vs Vettel in recent races?

[DungBeetle]

Hi Peter, i agree rules are rules. Why dont they just tell them when they check them they are too low?

It's up to the teams to ensure they're following the regulations, the FIA are there to police it. In the interests of fairness, penalties are given to anyone who breeches.

Surely one of the big reasons for this is safety, especially after what happened in Spa and the drivers reactions. 

So if they(FiA) knew the pressures were down before the start/during the first few laps.  Should both cars have been shown a black & orange flag?

I believe (although am uncertain) that Pirelli took the measurements, the FIA will (probably) have only found out after the race when Pirelli submitted their technical report.

the FIA found out dring the race and told Merc, who told Lewis to speed up in anticipation of a time penalty

if the FIA find out during the race, and its a safety/technical infringement...then black flag him...but no

If it's a safety issue, what on earth is the logic of the FIA telling them mid race so the "dangerous" car is told to speed up!  Ridiculous state of affairs.

[Tal]

I'm hoping to do some legwork on helping Fred put a NFL book together, although I have just had an email to say Tighty has done a 5,000 word preview elsewhere. Before I read it, one bet has caught my eye.  

Fred has had a bet each year on the top passing quarterback in the regular season. The same old faces crop up each year and I can't believe the bookies can price up Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan in our favour.

Third place in 2014 was 4,761. In 2013, 4,650. In 2012, you needed near enough 5k. Projections suggest a lower total may be enough this year to make the money.

Andrew Luck will be there or thereabouts, barring injury. They're the best team in the AFC and he is their star player. 4,761 last year and no reason to change that this time around.

Aaron Rodgers will be working with a new offensive coordinator and has a multitude of weapons at his disposal, but won't get more than 4,500 this season; the team is often ahead, particularly at home, and clock management in sub zero conditions means running the ball.

Peyton Manning is going to hit the wall at some point: his offense isn't at formidable as it was, he is not getting any younger and he has a good running back to carry the mail for him. 4,727 last year is 700 fewer than the season before and I would be amazed if, at 40, he is throwing north of 4,500.

Matt Ryan boasts at elite wide receiver but the new coaching staff will be eager to manage the number of long passes, as the longer he holds the ball, the more time the opposition has to walk through the parting red sea that is the Atlanta offensive line and hurt him. They have upgraded a little but I'd be looking at last season's 4,694 as a ceiling, not a target.

Ben Roethlisberger has one of the best offenses in footbawl and he will have to be at his best for a lot of the season to convert that into a playoff run. 608 pass attempts last year may well be topped this year and they will often find themselves behind in games because of their porous defense. 4,952 last season was a peak and he will be north of 4,500 again this season. He may even top 5k. 7/1 might be a smidge of value, even if he's generally mocked for his inconsistency.

Drew Brees finds himself in a declining team and losing the safest hands on football in Tight End Jimmy Graham will see him either having to chuck further or run the ball more prevalently. This feels like a team you'd want to be against and the quarterback will face more pressing decisions  than how many receiving yards in the coming year. 4,952 from last year could look a long way away come November.  

There are a few QBs who could get 4,000 yards without it stretching the imagination, so the question is whether we can find one to get 4,300 and get into the top three conversation.

Off an ACL injury, 35 years old and with an offense that hasn't exactly smouldered in preseason, Carson Palmer probably isn't first on the list. His head coach, Bruce Arians, likes speedy wide receivers to stretch the play, in tandem with short pass and run options. In Andre Ellington and David Johnson, he has the short passes and running game, in Larry Fitzgerald, and Michael Floyd he has two excellent WRs and in John Brown, he has a lightning quick guy downfield. They have drafted cover for Brown in the blistering JJ Nelson, too.

Unlike two years ago, the Cardinals won't be dominating every week. They will be required to go and win games and to win from behind. There is no ground and pound provision each week and Palmer will be called upon to get his team out of trouble. They're good enough to win 9 games in a tricky division (line is 8.5) and his two seasons before his injury after six games last year were 4,018 in 2012 and 4,274 in 2013. Last year's 1,626 from 6 games equates to 4,336.

What price would you make him? 20/1? 33/1?

He's 80/1 with BMU. Recommend £20 each way 1/4 first 3 on Carson Palmer to make the most passing yards.

[TightEnd]

nice

my preview is free, and we can back anything in it if we wish

eg if the above is good, Palmer would be in the running for comeback player of the year too.....16/1 last time i looked....he can win that without winning most passing yards and would be in with a shot if his team made the playoffs

anyway, i digress

80/1




Carson Palmer Regular Season Most Passing Yards
80/1 Each Way (3 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £40.00
Potential Returns: £2,040.00

[tikay]

I'm hoping to do some legwork on helping Fred put a NFL book together, although I have just had an email to say Tighty has done a 5,000 word preview elsewhere. Before I read it, one bet has caught my eye.  

Fred has had a bet each year on the top passing quarterback in the regular season. The same old faces crop up each year and I can't believe the bookies can price up Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan in our favour.

Third place in 2014 was 4,761. In 2013, 4,650. In 2012, you needed near enough 5k. Projections suggest a lower total may be enough this year to make the money.

Andrew Luck will be there or thereabouts, barring injury. They're the best team in the AFC and he is their star player. 4,761 last year and no reason to change that this time around.

Aaron Rodgers will be working with a new offensive coordinator and has a multitude of weapons at his disposal, but won't get more than 4,500 this season; the team is often ahead, particularly at home, and clock management in sub zero conditions means running the ball.

Peyton Manning is going to hit the wall at some point: his offense isn't at formidable as it was, he is not getting any younger and he has a good running back to carry the mail for him. 4,727 last year is 700 fewer than the season before and I would be amazed if, at 40, he is throwing north of 4,500.

Matt Ryan boasts at elite wide receiver but the new coaching staff will be eager to manage the number of long passes, as the longer he holds the ball, the more time the opposition has to walk through the parting red sea that is the Atlanta offensive line and hurt him. They have upgraded a little but I'd be looking at last season's 4,694 as a ceiling, not a target.

Ben Roethlisberger has one of the best offenses in footbawl and he will have to be at his best for a lot of the season to convert that into a playoff run. 608 pass attempts last year may well be topped this year and they will often find themselves behind in games because of their porous defense. 4,952 last season was a peak and he will be north of 4,500 again this season. He may even top 5k. 7/1 might be a smidge of value, even if he's generally mocked for his inconsistency.

Drew Brees finds himself in a declining team and losing the safest hands on football in Tight End Jimmy Graham will see him either having to chuck further or run the ball more prevalently. This feels like a team you'd want to be against and the quarterback will face more pressing decisions  than how many receiving yards in the coming year. 4,952 from last year could look a long way away come November.  

There are a few QBs who could get 4,000 yards without it stretching the imagination, so the question is whether we can find one to get 4,300 and get into the top three conversation.

Off an ACL injury, 35 years old and with an offense that hasn't exactly smouldered in preseason, Carson Palmer probably isn't first on the list. His head coach, Bruce Arians, likes speedy wide receivers to stretch the play, in tandem with short pass and run options. In Andre Ellington and David Johnson, he has the short passes and running game, in Larry Fitzgerald, and Michael Floyd he has two excellent WRs and in John Brown, he has a lightning quick guy downfield. They have drafted cover for Brown in the blistering JJ Nelson, too.

Unlike two years ago, the Cardinals won't be dominating every week. They will be required to go and win games and to win from behind. There is no ground and pound provision each week and Palmer will be called upon to get his team out of trouble. They're good enough to win 9 games in a tricky division (line is 8.5) and his two seasons before his injury after six games last year were 4,018 in 2012 and 4,274 in 2013. Last year's 1,626 from 6 games equates to 4,336.

What price would you make him? 20/1? 33/1?

He's 80/1 with BMU. Recommend £20 each way 1/4 first 3 on Carson Palmer to make the most passing yards.

Brilliant, thank you.

We might just have some fun with that,

[Peter-27]

While we're awaiting a decision, I think this will decide the title.

Either Hamilton retains his big lead and will win the title, or Hamilton will get angry, lose composure and essentially hand the title to Nico. In my opinion only of course.

No penalty, tyres were the correct pressure when they went on the car.

Surprised by this thought it was a sure DSQ. Would quite like to see Nico take it this year but doubt that is happening now. Any thoughts on the championship without Hamilton? Nico seems to be struggling Vs Vettel in recent races?

Me too, but as it turns out the tyres were the correct pressure when they were fitted onto the car and there was nothing more that Mercedes could have done.

I think Hamilton has this championship in the bag now. Gap is over 50 points. Nico has the car to bear Vettel to second.

Hi Peter, i agree rules are rules. Why dont they just tell them when they check them they are too low?

It's up to the teams to ensure they're following the regulations, the FIA are there to police it. In the interests of fairness, penalties are given to anyone who breeches.

Surely one of the big reasons for this is safety, especially after what happened in Spa and the drivers reactions. 

So if they(FiA) knew the pressures were down before the start/during the first few laps.  Should both cars have been shown a black & orange flag?

I believe (although am uncertain) that Pirelli took the measurements, the FIA will (probably) have only found out after the race when Pirelli submitted their technical report.

the FIA found out dring the race and told Merc, who told Lewis to speed up in anticipation of a time penalty

if the FIA find out during the race, and its a safety/technical infringement...then black flag him...but no

If it's a safety issue, what on earth is the logic of the FIA telling them mid race so the "dangerous" car is told to speed up!  Ridiculous state of affairs.

As soon as the FIA launch an investigation into something, the teams get alerted, that's just how the communication systems work. The tyre pressure delta between the recorded pressure and the target wasn't deemed as safety critical and that's why the cars were not shown the black/black and orange flag.

[TightEnd]

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[ripple11]

I'm hoping to do some legwork on helping Fred put a NFL book together, although I have just had an email to say Tighty has done a 5,000 word preview elsewhere. Before I read it, one bet has caught my eye.  

Fred has had a bet each year on the top passing quarterback in the regular season. The same old faces crop up each year and I can't believe the bookies can price up Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan in our favour.

Third place in 2014 was 4,761. In 2013, 4,650. In 2012, you needed near enough 5k. Projections suggest a lower total may be enough this year to make the money.

Andrew Luck will be there or thereabouts, barring injury. They're the best team in the AFC and he is their star player. 4,761 last year and no reason to change that this time around.

Aaron Rodgers will be working with a new offensive coordinator and has a multitude of weapons at his disposal, but won't get more than 4,500 this season; the team is often ahead, particularly at home, and clock management in sub zero conditions means running the ball.

Peyton Manning is going to hit the wall at some point: his offense isn't at formidable as it was, he is not getting any younger and he has a good running back to carry the mail for him. 4,727 last year is 700 fewer than the season before and I would be amazed if, at 40, he is throwing north of 4,500.

Matt Ryan boasts at elite wide receiver but the new coaching staff will be eager to manage the number of long passes, as the longer he holds the ball, the more time the opposition has to walk through the parting red sea that is the Atlanta offensive line and hurt him. They have upgraded a little but I'd be looking at last season's 4,694 as a ceiling, not a target.

Ben Roethlisberger has one of the best offenses in footbawl and he will have to be at his best for a lot of the season to convert that into a playoff run. 608 pass attempts last year may well be topped this year and they will often find themselves behind in games because of their porous defense. 4,952 last season was a peak and he will be north of 4,500 again this season. He may even top 5k. 7/1 might be a smidge of value, even if he's generally mocked for his inconsistency.

Drew Brees finds himself in a declining team and losing the safest hands on football in Tight End Jimmy Graham will see him either having to chuck further or run the ball more prevalently. This feels like a team you'd want to be against and the quarterback will face more pressing decisions  than how many receiving yards in the coming year. 4,952 from last year could look a long way away come November.  

There are a few QBs who could get 4,000 yards without it stretching the imagination, so the question is whether we can find one to get 4,300 and get into the top three conversation.

Off an ACL injury, 35 years old and with an offense that hasn't exactly smouldered in preseason, Carson Palmer probably isn't first on the list. His head coach, Bruce Arians, likes speedy wide receivers to stretch the play, in tandem with short pass and run options. In Andre Ellington and David Johnson, he has the short passes and running game, in Larry Fitzgerald, and Michael Floyd he has two excellent WRs and in John Brown, he has a lightning quick guy downfield. They have drafted cover for Brown in the blistering JJ Nelson, too.

Unlike two years ago, the Cardinals won't be dominating every week. They will be required to go and win games and to win from behind. There is no ground and pound provision each week and Palmer will be called upon to get his team out of trouble. They're good enough to win 9 games in a tricky division (line is 8.5) and his two seasons before his injury after six games last year were 4,018 in 2012 and 4,274 in 2013. Last year's 1,626 from 6 games equates to 4,336.

What price would you make him? 20/1? 33/1?

He's 80/1 with BMU. Recommend £20 each way 1/4 first 3 on Carson Palmer to make the most passing yards.

Had to read a couple of times....thought it was the man 

"Carlton Palmer can trap the ball further than I can kick it"

[arbboy]

Just posted this on the dog thread and fred should be getting involved for the max £200 ew at 4/1 is my recommendation.  The championship is a 3 month long event for the 20 tracks which have BAGS contracts for the betting shops with 4 groups and the final is just before xmas on Sky sports.

I got the 5/1 Newcastle e/w.  Looks an incredible price given their group.  Would happily still take 4/1.  The ew part of the bet is stonking value.  Too many of Romford's dogs run in shit 'lol opens' every Friday night which are effectively poor A1's so a lot of their dogs won't be able to enter.  Couldn't back them at 16/1.  Final track is pretty certain to be a 480m track which won't suit them either.

http://www.bagsracing.com/2015-group-hq.html

http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/ante-post/bags-track-championship/winner

No idea which firms have priced up the groups that the prices are showing on this website.  Can't see them on oddschecker anywhere.   Winner of each group go through and 2 highest scoring losers.  This really doesn't help the 'tough' midlands group with 4 big tracks in it.  Towcester, Sheffield, Notts and Posh.  They are all going to take points off each other more so than the other groups so it seems highly likely only the winner will go through from this group imo.  Those 4 combined take such a huge % out of the outright book (5/2, 8/1, 16/1 and 25/1 = nearly 50% - obv plenty of over round even taking top prices) however it just creates huge value elsewhere in the other groups imo.

Then the additional bingo factor it is a 20 runnner hcap effectively with 1/4 1,2,3,4 place terms when so many of the field have no chance.  Newcastle are 4/11 to win their group.  Even if they don't win their group they are still odds on to qualify if they come second because their section is so weak and they will pick up plenty of points towards a highest loser position.    They are probably 1/4 to reach the final if you take the 4/11 literally to win the group.  We are getting even money a top 4 finish place wise in a 6 runner final on the 2nd fav outright when they are 1/4 to reach the final imo.  Basically taking even money and hoping they don't come 5th or last in the final.  They won't be bigger than 4/1 either if they get to the final to win so there is definitely value, albeit less value than the place angle, in the win price as well.  Their 'home distance' of 480m is highly likely to be close to the distance at the track in the final which will give them another edge over some of their rivals.

I really think this is close to a maximum bet given the draw, maths angles etc.  The place edge is huge imo.  Newcastle hardly ever have 'opens' at their track so their top grade A1 races are often good open standard but the penalty (dogs can only have won 1 open race to be allowed to compete in this event) as it is technically for graded dogs won't affect Newcastle anywhere near as much as other tracks, esp Romford, Hove, Towcester and Sheffield.

Good A1 dogs at newcastle would routinely win decent open races if they run them in opens.  Newcastle's A1 dogs are a different league to the vast majority of tracks A1 dogs in their qualifying group.

[TightEnd]

dogs are chosen to represent their tracks?

they run heats at each track, and aggregate the scores?

the best tracks, with the results of their dogs, go through to a knock out stage?

[arbboy]

Yes.  They have to be a graded dog at the track and have only won 1 open race i think.  This suits some tracks a lot more than others.

The group prices are at bald if anyone is interested.  They opened up 8/15 Newcastle for their group and got filled in and are now 4/11.  They haven't moved anyone else's prices. 

The home track for each heat in the group gets 2 runners in each race to make up the 6 runner races.

It is a built for TV event for the 23rd December when there is no UK horse racing so they have a decent UK product for the shops on this day.  The venue for the final is a neutral venue 'ie a track which hasn't made the final' tba once the results are known.  

[TightEnd]

Newcastle BAGS Track Championship Winner
4/1 Each Way (4 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £200.00
Potential Returns: £700.00

Newcastle BAGS Track Championship Winner
4/1  Each Way (4 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £100
Potential Returns: £350.00

Newcastle BAGS Track Championship Winner
4/1 Each Way (4 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £50.00
Potential Returns: £175.00



i had to split it between ladbrokes, hills and betvic as we aren't carrying big balances at the moment and couldn't quite make £200 e/w at the prices. a fair few accounts need re-seeding