Tips for Tikay

[MattyHollis]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/england-euro-2016-specials/to-make-finals-squad

Some prices that standout in here for me..

Ross Barkley 1/2 with sportsbook (lol) to big basically injury permitting he will be there 365 1/6 seems more like it.

Theo Walcott 2/5 with victor again looks a cert bar injury

much more speculative

Tom Heaton is 12s with victor, looks the next cab of the rank if Forster does not recover from his broken knee cap in time (seems conflicting reports) cant see Ben Foster making himself available to be 3rd choice again.


Suggested Bets...

Max  Ross Barkley 1/2 sportsbook (upto £100 if available)

£100 Theo Walcott 2/5 Victor

£20 Tom Heaton 12/1 victor

Reece Oxford has started three games for West Ham this season. Is it worth looking at him at 50/1?

No.

[nuros]

Agree with no, barring the FA cup I doubt he'll start again for west ham this season unless we get some serious bad luck with injuries, to get a game in defensive midfield like he did earlier in the season he'd have to displace one of Noble Kouyate Song or Obiang - Song isn;t quite fit yet but is close, Obiang wasn''t at the start of the season plus think Kouyate wasn't 100% too, and likewise he's at best 5th choice cb behind reid ogbonna tomkins and collins

[vegaslover]

Allardyce believes 30 games will be enough to get Sunderland out of trouble. Read more: http://bit.ly/Sun-Sam 

do we agree with this, with our existing bets in mind?

Yeah, I hink he will do a decent job there. Next two games very important, with both West Brom and Newcastle struggling

[Peter-27]

Agree with no, barring the FA cup I doubt he'll start again for west ham this season unless we get some serious bad luck with injuries, to get a game in defensive midfield like he did earlier in the season he'd have to displace one of Noble Kouyate Song or Obiang - Song isn;t quite fit yet but is close, Obiang wasn''t at the start of the season plus think Kouyate wasn't 100% too, and likewise he's at best 5th choice cb behind reid ogbonna tomkins and collins

Fair enough, thought it was worth asking the question at that price.

How come he already started three games though? Effect of injuries/suspensions?

[nuros]

Yeah he started first game of season v Arsenal as part of a midfield 3 with noble and kouyate (was wrong thinking kouyate wasnt fit for that game), then played first 45 mins of next game v Bournmouth and has since made one sub appearance. Also played in 3 european qualifiers effectively pre-season. He was in the team because of injuries and the fact that some new signings weren't up to speed yet (lanzini), and the team has since been strengthened (since end of transfer window). Def one for the future though he'll still be only 17 by the time the euros comes around.

[swinebag22]

Prem is back this w/e and pretty much no spots in the 12X markets (as per usual)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-bournemouth/asian-handicap

I was surprised however to see the Asian line for City/Bournemouth at 1.5. It was 2 for the Newcastle game and pretty sure Bournemouth aren't half a goal better than Newcastle.

The counter argument is that City may be half a goal worse since Newcastle with Kun and Silva missing. One would still expect City to win this comfortably though. They have won plenty of games this season without Aguero's goals and Silva will definitely be the bigger miss, but there are just so many options going forward for City. Defensively there could be problems with Kolarov doubtful, Kompany not 100% fit and Otamendi not fully settled in. Despite these doubts I can't see beyond a city win and they just don't win games at home by the odd goal.

Given most of their wins this season have been by 2+ goals I would have the -1.5 line at just over evens as a touch of value. Can only see the line going up so think we should go in now. Hate backing my own team but this feels a good spot

Reccommend £29 @30/29 with BMU

[swinebag22]

Also think the Arsenal price away at Watford is far too low. However, can't think of the best way to play this, if there is indeed a way to play it..

[scotty2hatty]

Whilst Silva is fantastic, I'm definitely of the opinion that Aguero is the bigger miss.

[TightEnd]

couple of props for Atlanta @ New Orleans tonight

1. Wllie Snead, wide receiver, Saints

Colston is out for the Saints. That means the wide receivers starting will be Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead

Snead is a slot receiver, matches up against safeties and linebackers in the middle of the field rather than playing out wide against starting corners

The Falcons against slot receivers this year Jordan Matthews of the eagles 10-102, Jamison Crowder of the Redskins 8-89, cecil shorts of the Texans 6-87,   Cole Beasley of the Cowboys 4-49, per rotoworld

Snead was playing 70% of snaps before Colston went down

Cooks has a receving line of 75-80 yards for the game and is odds on anytime touchdown, but he's a bit more boom and bust and will have the falcons top corner Trufant on him

Snead is 7/5 anytime touchdown

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/atlanta-falcons-at-new-orleans-saints/anytime-touchdown-scorer

game has an over/under of 51 points, the Saints are unlikely to be far enough ahead in the game to rein things in on offense.

Snead at 7/5 is good value

i quote from one of the fantasy columns

"The New Orleans Saints are really banged up right now, especially in the passing game. Receiver Marques Colston has a separated shoulder and quarterback Drew Brees is also banged up.

With Colston out, it looks like it's Willie Snead time. Snead busted loose on Sunday with six catches for 141 yards. He can catch the short stuff, but is really more of a field-stretching guy. On top of the Week 5 game, Snead also had a big Week 4 with six catches for 89 yards. He's so hot right now.

The Saints are obviously missing Seattle Seahawks tight end Jimmy Graham and they've had some issues scoring in the red zone. With Snead entering the week as a focal point, he should have a lot of red-zone looks coming his way in a very high-scoring game."


2 Devonta Freeman, running back Falcons

Has 8 Touchdowns in 5 games. makes one cut and goes. big quick back in the right system, behind a much improved offensive line. opponents cant stack the box against the run because that would mean going 1 on 1 with julio jones on the outside, which you just cant do

early in the season he shared time with tevin coleman, who then got injured

in the three weeks since his lines are

30-141 3 TD
14-68 3 TD
27-153 1 TD

http://www.nfl.com/player/devontafreeman/2543583/gamelogs

The Saints rushing defense against him, allows 4.5 yards per carry so far this season. The Eagles running backs last week went for 33-182 combined

Freeman is in for 85+ rushing yards

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/atlanta-falcons-at-new-orleans-saints/total-rushing-yds-devonta-freeman

would be a surprise to me if he doesn't break 100 in this type of game against this opponent. had 30 carries last week, on 20 carries this should get 100+

Overs. 

[tikay]

couple of props for Atlanta @ New Orleans tonight

1. Wllie Snead, wide receiver, Saints

Colston is out for the Saints. That means the wide receivers starting will be Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead

Snead is a slot receiver, matches up against safeties and linebackers in the middle of the field rather than playing out wide against starting corners

The Falcons against slot receivers this year Jordan Matthews of the eagles 10-102, Jamison Crowder of the Redskins 8-89, cecil shorts of the Texans 6-87,   Cole Beasley of the Cowboys 4-49, per rotoworld

Snead was playing 70% of snaps before Colston went down

Cooks has a receving line of 75-80 yards for the game and is odds on anytime touchdown, but he's a bit more boom and bust and will have the falcons top corner Trufant on him

Snead is 7/5 anytime touchdown

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/atlanta-falcons-at-new-orleans-saints/anytime-touchdown-scorer

game has an over/under of 51 points, the Saints are unlikely to be far enough ahead in the game to rein things in on offense.

Snead at 7/5 is good value

i quote from one of the fantasy columns

"The New Orleans Saints are really banged up right now, especially in the passing game. Receiver Marques Colston has a separated shoulder and quarterback Drew Brees is also banged up.

With Colston out, it looks like it's Willie Snead time. Snead busted loose on Sunday with six catches for 141 yards. He can catch the short stuff, but is really more of a field-stretching guy. On top of the Week 5 game, Snead also had a big Week 4 with six catches for 89 yards. He's so hot right now.

The Saints are obviously missing Seattle Seahawks tight end Jimmy Graham and they've had some issues scoring in the red zone. With Snead entering the week as a focal point, he should have a lot of red-zone looks coming his way in a very high-scoring game."


2 Devonta Freeman, running back Falcons

Has 8 Touchdowns in 5 games. makes one cut and goes. big quick back in the right system, behind a much improved offensive line. opponents cant stack the box against the run because that would mean going 1 on 1 with julio jones on the outside, which you just cant do

early in the season he shared time with tevin coleman, who then got injured

in the three weeks since his lines are

30-141 3 TD
14-68 3 TD
27-153 1 TD

http://www.nfl.com/player/devontafreeman/2543583/gamelogs

The Saints rushing defense against him, allows 4.5 yards per carry so far this season. The Eagles running backs last week went for 33-182 combined

Freeman is in for 85+ rushing yards

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/atlanta-falcons-at-new-orleans-saints/total-rushing-yds-devonta-freeman

would be a surprise to me if he doesn't break 100 in this type of game against this opponent. had 30 carries last week, on 20 carries this should get 100+

Overs. 

Are we able to get on, Tighty? If so, lets go.

[TightEnd]

Over Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Total Rushing Yds - Devonta Freeman
20/23
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £18.70


Willie Snead Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Anytime Touchdown Scorer
7/5
Total Stake: £15.00
Potential Returns: £36.00

restrictions applied

[TightEnd]

Also think the Arsenal price away at Watford is far too low. However, can't think of the best way to play this, if there is indeed a way to play it..

both teams to score no? @11/10

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/watford-v-arsenal/both-teams-to-score

watford have 6 goals in 8 games, and haven't scored in 4 of them.

[TightEnd]

Prem is back this w/e and pretty much no spots in the 12X markets (as per usual)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-bournemouth/asian-handicap

I was surprised however to see the Asian line for City/Bournemouth at 1.5. It was 2 for the Newcastle game and pretty sure Bournemouth aren't half a goal better than Newcastle.

The counter argument is that City may be half a goal worse since Newcastle with Kun and Silva missing. One would still expect City to win this comfortably though. They have won plenty of games this season without Aguero's goals and Silva will definitely be the bigger miss, but there are just so many options going forward for City. Defensively there could be problems with Kolarov doubtful, Kompany not 100% fit and Otamendi not fully settled in. Despite these doubts I can't see beyond a city win and they just don't win games at home by the odd goal.

Given most of their wins this season have been by 2+ goals I would have the -1.5 line at just over evens as a touch of value. Can only see the line going up so think we should go in now. Hate backing my own team but this feels a good spot

Reccommend £29 @30/29 with BMU

Man City -1.5 Man City v Bournemouth Asian Handicap
42/41
Total Stake: £20.00
Total Returns: £40.40

[DungBeetle]

Also think the Arsenal price away at Watford is far too low. However, can't think of the best way to play this, if there is indeed a way to play it..

both teams to score no? @11/10

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/watford-v-arsenal/both-teams-to-score

watford have 6 goals in 8 games, and haven't scored in 4 of them.

Our goalscoring is a problem, especially at home bizarrely.  If Arsenal score we will struggle to get back in the game.  The defence is excellent however - best I've seen in a Watford team.

[fatcatstu]

Matt Ryan v New Orleans tonight.

New Orleans have allowed opposing QBs to go over 300 yards 3 times already this season, with the 2 that havent being Winston (Tampa Bay) and Weedon (Cowgirls) who hardly have high powered offence.

Paddy Power have set the line at 275.5 yards for Ryan, which looks frankly ludicrous. Most of the other companies are at 295.5-300.5, which I still think represents good value.

Atlanta obviously have a great running game at the minute, Freeman is playing like a beast. As we know, you need a good running game to have a good passing game, and Freeman's presence will mean The Saints having to commit more men to stop the run, which means that Ryan will have the likes of Julio Jones, Leonard Hankerchief, Roddy White and Jacob Tamme more available to pass too.

Recommend £15 on Matt Ryan OVERS