Tips for Tikay

[vegaslover]

As others have stated, please keep posting your thoughts Tighty.

Kush, nice try on the drunken rants on Fred but Arbs does it way better

Another top notch result Peter, how long before motorsport at no 1??

[Chompy]

^^^^

I don't, however, blame you one bit for ceasing those wonderful Daily reports. They were a work of art, but people took them for granted, & rarely commented.

Indeed ,they were works of art , but apart from "great write up Rich" there is very little to say , it is not apathy by the forumites , just that a list of our current positions doesn't lend itself to interaction.

Very much this. Gave the thread a sense of continuity. Maybe it's the beer talking but I'd like them back too.

[Tal]

Just posted on the Strictly thread...

Highest Scorer

We are starting to see the pack catching up as those with no dance experience show promise and learn the skills. This logically means there's a higher chance of a chop at the top, so we should be thinking of where the value might be.

Peter has to do a slow dance, which we haven't seen him try yet. I expect him to have hips but the mood of the dance is going to be a challenge, after a run of quick and intense dances (randomly selected, I am sure) in the early weeks. We will find out tonight whether he is a genuine contender for the glitter ball tonight, IMO. The rumba is by far the hardest dance for men - a lot of apparent inactivity but you have to keep fluid motion through the body and soft hips with a straight leg, which will feel unnatural but looks great - so anything above 28 would be a serious score. This early, I'd add 4 to any male rumba score for a rough idea of how he does.

Katie has an interesting dance tonight. Anton's last choreography for a latin was the Pretty Woman cha cha of week three, which was heavily and rightly chastised for a lack of content. Anton is not the most natural salsa dancer and he won't have danced the salsa at all outside Strictly; it isn't part of the traditional ten dances and Anton would almost exclusively be in ballroom competitions anyway. However, the judges will be watching and he needs to produce a decent dance for Katie, who has great legs and a natural rhythm, so she should be able to do well tonight. Expect lots of "armography", but that means there are risks of it going wrong as one of them (and it could be either - Anton himself admitted making a mistake in their Viennese Waltz last week) loses timing. I'd not want to be backing her to top the leaderboard two weeks on the bounce.

Jay is comically short again. He will deliver a good Paso - he strikes me as being a good character dancer - but 7/4 is bonkers. 5/2 would be on the tight side of fair. Doobs's post above suggests the bookies are taking bets on Jay, which explains why we shouldn't be following suit. I don't like the song as a Paso, but Aliona is adamant it works. Aliona is putting too much content in her choreography for Jay, in my view. He would be better off with less to remember and doing it well.

Kellie's jive looks fantastic. She is a very serious contender IMO. However, her greatest asset is also her biggest threat: Kevin. The smartest pro dancers on Strictly (off the top of my head, Matthew Cutler, Ola Jordan, Lilya Kopylova, Darren Bennett, Artem Chigvintsev, Brendan Cole, Natalie Lowe) take a little off the sharpness of their dancing, particularly in latin, so that their partner looks the same as them. It's called underdancing. Looking at their training, I'm seeing the same problem as Suzanna Reid had with Kevin, as his kicks and flicks are supremely sharp (start later, finish earlier), which masks how good Kellie's are. She will still score well but the syncopation in the side by side parts of the jive might not look as good as it actually is.

Georgia continues to be solid and unspectacular. I don't expect her to be any different tonight. I still believe she struggles with quicker stuff and this salsa feels quick and involved. She will be fine but 6/1 to top the leaderboard is no price at all.

Anita has a lot going for her and I do anticipate she will go deep in this series. However, this doesn't feel like her dance to me. The tango will be like Georgia and solid, with lots to like and a few bits to improve upon. Gleb is pushing her, no question, and I would think upper twenties again is realistic.

Helen has been criticised for her ballet legs. She is going to be very good at a light touch quickstep. Aljaž can glide her across the floor and her long, rangy legs will carry her effortlessly. They have excellent chemistry and put the hours in to refine the technical bits...and this dance has a lot of detail, the execution of which is what separates an excellent quickstep from a good one. 6/1 is not bad at all. It isn't a world beating price but it's better than I expected. I had her at 5/1 ish and with Jay being falsely short, there's room for a bet here, I think.

Next Elimination

Obvious stuff is obvious.

Jeremy will be worst but will survive thanks to the public. Carol might go but you feel it's a week or two too soon for the darling of the BBC to waltz off awkwardly into the sunset.

Kirsty is 5/4 favourite and I think that's massively out of line. There is often a bounce after being in the dance off: the contestant has a new incentive and the public don't want to lose someone. She has been in the media a lot this week (front page of the metro yesterday, interview with the Daily Mail in the week, a few charity things), which will help her exposure. She has also found a dance she really likes and she's very good at pivots, which, in the Viennese Waltz, is very important. She has a strong core that will enable her to keep frame and posture intact. Against that, Brendan has had a family issue this week, if reports are accurate, and they have not been able to do much training. I expect her to stay nonetheless.

Ainsley's jive will look awful next to Kellie's but he might be funny enough to stop in. Just.

The one I really like to go next is Jamelia. She's been in the dance off before so we know votes are an issue. She is doing a foxtrot which she doesn't look suited to at all. The music is bizarre and I believe she will struggle. 7/1 with betway but 6/1 with actual bookies. I like this.

Cliffs
Helen to be top tonight
Jamelia to go.
Each 6/1

Tenner on each, please, unless there are different views. 

[TightEnd]

Jamelia Strictly Come Dancing Next Elimination
6/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £70.00

Helen George Strictly Come Dancing Highest Scorer
6/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Total Returns: £70.00

[TightEnd]

ref yesterdays bets

Click to see full-size image.

mahrez plays in behind Vardy in a 4-4-1-1

[Peter-27]

Another top notch result Peter, how long before motorsport at no 1??

I'm working on it for sure! Although we're circa £4000 down on football, but at least it's in profit now and not -£600 as it was when I first came here  

Meanwhile in Texas, it's wet.

Extremely wet in fact, there are puddles several inches deep both on and off the circuit. It's looks like we'll have no action at all today. Although, the FIA will hold off officially abandoning the event just in case we get a window, they do have contract obligations to try and fill.

The problem is that tomorrow, although there is a window for the race (still wet, but it looks potentially race-able), there doesn't appear to be any realistic time to fit qualifying in according to the weather radar. The FIA would have to determine a grid order somehow. Potentially results from the disjointed FP1 session, championship position, or results from the last race. Could be interesting.

[Peter-27]

Jamelia Strictly Come Dancing Next Elimination
6/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £70.00

Helen George Strictly Come Dancing Highest Scorer
6/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Total Returns: £70.00

I've done these, thanks Tal.

Jamelia is now 7/1 on betway BTW

[arbboy]

Betfair exchange only goes down just after mid day and amazingly re appears at 3.01pm just after all the mugs are forced into the sportsbook to place their weekend football and racing bets.  Anyone else as cynical as me and think they are just running the exchange into the ground on purpose?

[TheDazzler]

Definitely please keep posting and apologies for being a dick after 3-4 too many glasses of scotch. It was just something that interested me because I bet NFL more than anything else, win more than on anything else and disagree with your view on the spread more than on anything else. Idiotic way to approach it and I'm genuinely sorry.

I should have gone with alcohol, as I got it right last time

I feel I'm at the age where I should get into Scotch, as it always looks so good when you see them sloshing it down in the movies.

Think I'm going to try drinking it when I next have a homegame, so could you recommend me one, please?

I think this, it's peaty but not too peaty and is my preferred scotch at the moment:

https://www.lochfynewhiskies.com/scotch-whisky/single-malts/island/jura/isle-of-jura-prophecy/

Scotch is a really acquired taste.
I love this stuff, which is much smoother than most good scotches.
Just the bog standard Midleton 2015 Very Rare @ £149.95 is fantastic. Obviously you can go for the more expensive ones too but some of them are a little prohibitive in price!
http://www.celticwhiskeyshop.com/midleton-irish-whiskey-distillery/Midleton-Irish-Whiskey

[Tal]

I've been looking at the Falcons @ Titans game tomorrow and am scratching my head a bit.

Firstly, 71% of the money in vegas is on Atlanta -7, yet we can get -6 here. Ok. Good. Tennessee have lost their quarterback and their center, so the replacement QB is going to feel exposed. Mettenberger hasn't won a game out of the six he has played for Tennessee. No reason to suppose that's about to change.

If you think the offensive line is bad, wait til you see the defensive line of Tennessee. The worst runstuffers in the NFL and facing a bloke who has gone over 100 yards in three of his last four games and leads the NFL in touchdowns. Devonta Freeman's line for yards? 90.5. Thank you, shouty red man.

If Tennessee have any hope of being competitive, the man who might get them there is Delanie Walker. He is their tight end and that is a weak spot for Atlanta, who have given up touchdowns in their last three games to TEs. 66.5 yards average conceded by the Falcons. Walker got 97 last week against Miami. 36 the week before against Buffalo, but the Bills dominated the pass rush that week. Before that, he has had a wrist injury. He is back and fit now and by far the best hands in the team. Short passes for simple downs and red zone targets (which may be few and far between) right up Walker's street. Shouty Red Man says...55.5 yards.

Click to see full-size image.

Recommend:

£33 Atlanta -6
£22 Devonta Freeman over 90.5 rushing
£44 Delanie Walker over 55.5 receiving

Given the bookie, you won't be getting that, but just giving you an idea of my views on the bets.

[MattyHollis]

Think you've missed the boat on the first two, Atlanta available at -4 early in week and Freeman will come down sooner rather than later so 90 seems high to me.

Like the Walker bet, especially with a backup QB, TE's normally have their best days on days like these.

[Tal]

Think you've missed the boat on the first two, Atlanta available at -4 early in week and Freeman will come down sooner rather than later so 90 seems high to me.

Like the Walker bet, especially with a backup QB, TE's normally have their best days on days like these.

I wanted to see if Mariota was fit for Tennessee, as he has proved capable of putting drives together (such as against Indy). He is out and, as 5 is a dead number, I was happy to take the risk of missing a bit. As it is, -6 seems fine to me. If Freeman struggles against this defense (Titans have been very effective against the pass (top in the NFL), but Julio Jones, Leonard Hankerson and Roddy White are a different challenge by some distance and the Titans can't really afford to push linebackers up and leave these guys in single coverage), it'd be a surprise. It's a lot of yards, agreed, but they should be ahead in the game and running the clock down, after a poor offensive performance makes sense.

Anyway, just opinions, as ever.  

Amazed the Steelers are underdogs at home, too. Chiefs have no running game and one wide receiver. Steelers, playing their 4th kicker, their 4th choice QB and their third left tackle, still have too much firepower to be kept to under 20 points. Smacks of an overreaction. The QB who will be playing was top in passing yards in preseason so has a rapport with the players. Martavis Bryant loved him last week and Antonio Brown's poor numbers last week were more down to being marked by, in my opinion, the best cornerback in the NFL in Patrick Peterson. Plenty of +2.5 about.

BTW, I'm putting these up today because I am otherwise engaged tomorrow, so have limited availability. If anyone sees better prices tomorrow, feel free to post.

[MattyHollis]

Think you've missed the boat on the first two, Atlanta available at -4 early in week and Freeman will come down sooner rather than later so 90 seems high to me.

Like the Walker bet, especially with a backup QB, TE's normally have their best days on days like these.

I wanted to see if Mariota was fit for Tennessee, as he has proved capable of putting drives together (such as against Indy). He is out and, as 5 is a dead number, I was happy to take the risk of missing a bit. As it is, -6 seems fine to me. If Freeman struggles against this defense (Titans have been very effective against the pass (top in the NFL), but Julio Jones, Leonard Hankerson and Roddy White are a different challenge by some distance and the Titans can't really afford to push linebackers up and leave these guys in single coverage), it'd be a surprise. It's a lot of yards, agreed, but they should be ahead in the game and running the clock down, after a poor offensive performance makes sense.

Anyway, just opinions, as ever.  

Amazed the Steelers are underdogs at home, too. Chiefs have no running game and one wide receiver. Steelers, playing their 4th kicker, their 4th choice QB and their third left tackle, still have too much firepower to be kept to under 20 points. Smacks of an overreaction. The QB who will be playing was top in passing yards in preseason so has a rapport with the players. Martavis Bryant loved him last week and Antonio Brown's poor numbers last week were more down to being marked by, in my opinion, the best cornerback in the NFL in Patrick Peterson. Plenty of +2.5 about.

BTW, I'm putting these up today because I am otherwise engaged tomorrow, so have limited availability. If anyone sees better prices tomorrow, feel free to post.

I agree with Pitts but that's because I am bias being on them for the super bowl anyway 😂

[Peter-27]

Just posted this on my facebook page, Auto India Sports. Potentially very good news for our Force India season points bet.

"United States GP - Practice Three Results:

Hulkenberg 3rd (2:00.496), Perez 11th (2:02.660).

Much to everyone's surprise, the session did go ahead, despite the volume of water - and it looks like the FIA made the right call as we had no major incidents.

The two Sahara Force India Formula One Team cars looked very strong out there, particularly Nico Hülkenberg. I imagine the team will be very happy.

According to the weather forecast, the only time for the rest of the weekend where we will get "raceable" conditions is for when the race is scheduled. If qualifying doesn't go ahead, this session will probably decide the grid.

With both Ferrari's having 10-place grid penalties, the Force India's would start 2nd & 9th. Very acceptable positions. We need to hope for a deluge of rain right now so qualifying can not happen".

[david3103]

Definitely please keep posting and apologies for being a dick after 3-4 too many glasses of scotch. It was just something that interested me because I bet NFL more than anything else, win more than on anything else and disagree with your view on the spread more than on anything else. Idiotic way to approach it and I'm genuinely sorry.

I should have gone with alcohol, as I got it right last time

I feel I'm at the age where I should get into Scotch, as it always looks so good when you see them sloshing it down in the movies.

Think I'm going to try drinking it when I next have a homegame, so could you recommend me one, please?

I think this, it's peaty but not too peaty and is my preferred scotch at the moment:

https://www.lochfynewhiskies.com/scotch-whisky/single-malts/island/jura/isle-of-jura-prophecy/

Scotch is a really acquired taste.
I love this stuff, which is much smoother than most good scotches.
Just the bog standard Midleton 2015 Very Rare @ £149.95 is fantastic. Obviously you can go for the more expensive ones too but some of them are a little prohibitive in price!
http://www.celticwhiskeyshop.com/midleton-irish-whiskey-distillery/Midleton-Irish-Whiskey

I'd say that most newcomers to whisky will find stuff like Talisker, or Lagavulin too rich in the peat and smoke flavours.
The range of the whisky market is so huge and so diverse that I would recommend that you go for a few of the 'taster' packs,with miniatures in them to establish whether your tastes are in the peaty end of the spectrum, or the sweet(er).

Equally, the blended market has a wide range of palatiblity (is that really a word?).

Try a few, but be warned, if you do get a taste for it it can be somewhat moreish...