Tips for Tikay

[Stopsleyhatter]

NFL thoughts for today chaps?

Am working on stuff atm. Will post before 3.

would be disappointed if you didn't recommend a blocking tight end today, sir.

That's so last week. Am trying to find an offensive linemen or just JJ Watt

Jake Fisher maybe😉

[Stopsleyhatter]

on the NFL props, sure no one really cares but Ladbrokes have moved from 10/11 on their over/under props to 17/20 across the board from this week

the effect of this is that you need to win at 54%+ rather than 52%+ to break even. 

Do all my props with ladbrokes bit of a shithouse move if you ask me.Looking more at anytime td scorer now.

[tikay]

Doobs & Dazzler;

Thank you - I will settle up in the morning.

[Tal]

I can put this on for Fred if he wants.

Dallas @ Tampa Bay

Two surprisingly close teams, given Tampa building - slowly - a good team and Dallas massively underachieving this season (not helped by some off-the-field madness). Tampa have a wide receiver who, having been brilliant last season, has a case of the dropsies at the moment, their tight end is not fit and their running game is ok, rather than spectacular. They have a quarterback who can deliver good things but is far from the finished article. What has been happening of late in situations where they are close to the red zone is they try a couple of runs and, if that doesn't work, a fade (backfoot pass) to the wide receiver, Mike Evans. If that doesn't work, they kick for goal. Their kicker, Connor Barth, has had six kicks under 30 yards in the last three games for field goals, primarily because of their inability to get these situations right.

Conversely, tonight, on second/third and short, the porous Tampa midfield will have difficulty stopping tight end Jason Witten and slot receiver Cole Beasley for the quick passes. Kicker, Dan Bailey, has had 5 kicks under 30 yards all season.

There's a market the green bookie does where you can bet on the shortest field goal team. Tampa at 5/6 seems to me to be a good bet. It is predicted to be a close game, which is good, because it keeps the teams honest, rather than going for it on fourth downs.

Recommend £30 on Tampa Bay to have the shortest field goal with Patrick Parr at 5/6.

[Doobs]

Fred has £20 booked on the Group betting on Marcus Ericsson @ 9/4.

Did a tenner on that and Sainz for thread.  Really isn't an issue whether thread wants or not.  I don't mind keeping them.  Just Pls confirm before the race.

thank you, can we take £10 Sainz 11/8?

Confirmed

[TightEnd]

I can put this on for Fred if he wants.

Dallas @ Tampa Bay

Two surprisingly close teams, given Tampa building - slowly - a good team and Dallas massively underachieving this season (not helped by some off-the-field madness). Tampa have a wide receiver who, having been brilliant last season, has a case of the dropsies at the moment, their tight end is not fit and their running game is ok, rather than spectacular. They have a quarterback who can deliver good things but is far from the finished article. What has been happening of late in situations where they are close to the red zone is they try a couple of runs and, if that doesn't work, a fade (backfoot pass) to the wide receiver, Mike Evans. If that doesn't work, they kick for goal. Their kicker, Connor Barth, has had six kicks under 30 yards in the last three games for field goals, primarily because of their inability to get these situations right.

Conversely, tonight, on second/third and short, the porous Tampa midfield will have difficulty stopping tight end Jason Witten and slot receiver Cole Beasley for the quick passes. Kicker, Dan Bailey, has had 5 kicks under 30 yards all season.

There's a market the green bookie does where you can bet on the shortest field goal team. Tampa at 5/6 seems to me to be a good bet. It is predicted to be a close game, which is good, because it keeps the teams honest, rather than going for it on fourth downs.

Recommend £30 on Tampa Bay to have the shortest field goal with Patrick Parr at 5/6.

go on then

tampa should run a lot on dallas. sean lee is out. rolando mcClain is barely fit but has to play.

doug martin o75.5 is a light quote, should go over 100

[Tal]

Booked.

And agreed on Martin.

[Tal]

Are we at the time of year, yet, where we back the double figure underdogs? Detroit are +10.5 in Wisconsin against Green Bay. Off the back of two defeats, a shaky running game and a top wide receiver out, is this a game Rodgers just concentrates on getting the win on? Meanwhile, Megatron plays today. One can only hope that's because someone has noticed he is a useful asset and might be worth throwing the ball to...

Interested in thoughts. Have backed the Lions myself but what does Fred think?

[TightEnd]

Are we at the time of year, yet, where we back the double figure underdogs? Detroit are +10.5 in Wisconsin against Green Bay. Off the back of two defeats, a shaky running game and a top wide receiver out, is this a game Rodgers just concentrates on getting the win on? Meanwhile, Megatron plays today. One can only hope that's because someone has noticed he is a useful asset and might be worth throwing the ball to...

Interested in thoughts. Have backed the Lions myself but what does Fred think?

Yes in theory but not sure i would do Detroit in Lambeau to begin with

that OL can hardly keep Stafford upright, which is a large part of Megatron not getting used much. He can't set his feet to hit the big plays. Megatron is carrying an injury today too


Like the look of Jags+6 at the Ravens a lot. the Jags were -4 in turnovers last weekend and came close at the Jets. neither of these teams has much of a defense but Jags have plenty of points in them these days with bortles to hurns and robinson and you are getting almost a touchdown start 

[Tal]

Miami play in Philly tonight in a game where they are almost a touchdown dogs. They are probably worse than that, as Miami's new head coach has had his initial impact but is realising what a mess his franchise is in and the Eagles are finding their Mojo all of a sudden.

The Eagles have one outlier stat this season: despite having a good defense overall, they are the second worst in the league against the opposing team's top wide receiver. They AVERAGE over 100 yards per game against the WR1. That is a mind-blowing stat, considering they have played a fair range of teams this season.

Miami's Jarvis Landry has had a mixed season but is getting targets and will be called upon to deliver some yards today. His line is 70.5 and, whilst that is above average on the season for him, it's a situation where you expect Miami will need to throw the ball, as they are likely to be behind. Further, when you're playing Philly, you have a no-huddle offense against you, meaning there are more plays in the game. The 10/11 with BillyMo appeals to me. Could be a late sweat, but you're never out of the game against the Eagles.

Recommend £33 on Jarvis Landry to get over 70.5 receiving yards with Billy Mountains

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

^^^

Byron Maxwell, one of the worst value free agent signings of the summer, is Philly's CB1

Gets routinely burned by whoever he faces

Eagles defense has a really good front seven (fletcher cox etc), not so good in the secondary

[TightEnd]

Over Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles Total Receiving Yds - Jarvis Landry
10/11
Total Stake: £33.00
Potential Returns: £63.03

[sonour]

Would Fred like Hulkenburg End of 1st Lap Position 6th or Worse 6/4 £15 ?

[Tal]

Are we at the time of year, yet, where we back the double figure underdogs? Detroit are +10.5 in Wisconsin against Green Bay. Off the back of two defeats, a shaky running game and a top wide receiver out, is this a game Rodgers just concentrates on getting the win on? Meanwhile, Megatron plays today. One can only hope that's because someone has noticed he is a useful asset and might be worth throwing the ball to...

Interested in thoughts. Have backed the Lions myself but what does Fred think?

Yes in theory but not sure i would do Detroit in Lambeau to begin with

that OL can hardly keep Stafford upright, which is a large part of Megatron not getting used much. He can't set his feet to hit the big plays. Megatron is carrying an injury today too


Like the look of Jags+6 at the Ravens a lot. the Jags were -4 in turnovers last weekend and came close at the Jets. neither of these teams has much of a defense but Jags have plenty of points in them these days with bortles to hurns and robinson and you are getting almost a touchdown start  

It is possibly premature but I am hoping the troubles in the Green Bay defense carry on.

As for the Jags, the opened 6.5 and I was hoping they would go the other side of 7, but it's gone the other way. Agree entirely with the logic, though.

The Vikings +2.5 is terrific again now that Bridgewater is declared fit. We are watching two QBs who could be leading their teams out at the superbowl in a few years' time. Vikes are consistently friendless with the spread and have been the most profitable blind back of the season (7-1 ATS).

[TightEnd]

Would Fred like Hulkenburg End of 1st Lap Position 6th or Worse 6/4 £15 ?

Yes please thank you