Tips for Tikay

[slowmo]

Hey Tighty, hope you are well.

I wouldn't want ANYONE to follow my advice !!!!!!!!!!   You are dealing with the guy who backed Detroit outright ( Packers got slowest / worst receivers imo in the league and I will be fielding against the Pack for the rest of the season ) , Under the Packers points and under the total points in the game ( big ) and they all went down on the last play after the facemask call that wasn't. Also bet Cleveland on Monday  only to have a blocked FG returned for a touchdown!!!  I am the unluckiest gambler on the planet so definitely wont be recommending.    I was just offering a  view on Philly with the points . As I don't like it , that's everything you need to know to plunge on !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ( exclamation points cos I know Tikay loves them !!!!!!!)

[fatcatstu]

Is Scott Chandler worth a bet on over 45.5?

Replacing Gronk in a weakened attack, I can't see Brady going bonkers with deep passes, so checking down to the TE could be a big option?

The Eagles are much better against tight ends (11th) than wide receivers (31st to WR1; 18th to WR2), allowing 45.7 yards per game. I think that's partly because the opposition have been happy throwing to their receivers and using the tight end to bolster the offensive line, which is probably reflected in them having an average number of passes to tight ends against them, when they have such a poor pass defense (i.e., the extra passes are going elsewhere)

There might be something in it because Chandler can get downfield well. Depends whether Brady is happy with LaFell again for the deep routes.

So, I sort of like it but for a different reason

OK, I will go for it.

Recommend £30 bet on Scott Chandler OVER 45.5 yards  for New England v Philadelphia

Did you spot this a few pages back Rich?

Got an odds checker for it now too
http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-new-england-patriots/total-receiving-yds-scott-chandler

[TightEnd]

Is Scott Chandler worth a bet on over 45.5?

Replacing Gronk in a weakened attack, I can't see Brady going bonkers with deep passes, so checking down to the TE could be a big option?

The Eagles are much better against tight ends (11th) than wide receivers (31st to WR1; 18th to WR2), allowing 45.7 yards per game. I think that's partly because the opposition have been happy throwing to their receivers and using the tight end to bolster the offensive line, which is probably reflected in them having an average number of passes to tight ends against them, when they have such a poor pass defense (i.e., the extra passes are going elsewhere)

There might be something in it because Chandler can get downfield well. Depends whether Brady is happy with LaFell again for the deep routes.

So, I sort of like it but for a different reason

OK, I will go for it.

Recommend £30 bet on Scott Chandler OVER 45.5 yards  for New England v Philadelphia

Did you spot this a few pages back Rich?

Got an odds checker for it now too
http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-new-england-patriots/total-receiving-yds-scott-chandler

Sorry my eyes had glazed over on e/w doubles on palps :-)

[slowmo]

FWIW , on todays NFL games I like Houston/Buffalo under 42 total points , Arizona / Rams under 43 points, Cincinatti to score over 27 points v's Cleveland and San Francisco to score under 18 points v's Chicago .

[fatcatstu]

Is Scott Chandler worth a bet on over 45.5?

Replacing Gronk in a weakened attack, I can't see Brady going bonkers with deep passes, so checking down to the TE could be a big option?

The Eagles are much better against tight ends (11th) than wide receivers (31st to WR1; 18th to WR2), allowing 45.7 yards per game. I think that's partly because the opposition have been happy throwing to their receivers and using the tight end to bolster the offensive line, which is probably reflected in them having an average number of passes to tight ends against them, when they have such a poor pass defense (i.e., the extra passes are going elsewhere)

There might be something in it because Chandler can get downfield well. Depends whether Brady is happy with LaFell again for the deep routes.

So, I sort of like it but for a different reason

OK, I will go for it.

Recommend £30 bet on Scott Chandler OVER 45.5 yards  for New England v Philadelphia

Did you spot this a few pages back Rich?

Got an odds checker for it now too
http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-new-england-patriots/total-receiving-yds-scott-chandler

Sorry my eyes had glazed over on e/w doubles on palps :-)

I still don't even know what a PALP is???

[TightEnd]

a palpable error by a bookmaker in setting prices

a punter seeks to take advantage, but could be freerolled by the bookie: the bet is cancelled if he wins and not refunded if he loses

often you bet it and the bookmaker twigs beforehand, and gives you the option of a bet at the "correct price" or to cancel

[fatcatstu]

a palpable error by a bookmaker in setting prices

a punter seeks to take advantage, but could be freerolled by the bookie: the bet is cancelled if he wins and not refunded if he loses

often you bet it and the bookmaker twigs beforehand, and gives you the option of a bet at the "correct price" or to cancel

Ah! Every day is a school day with TfT!!

[TightEnd]

over 40.5

Over Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots Total Receiving Yds - Scott Chandler
17/20
Total Stake: £30.00
Potential Returns: £55.50

[kukushkin88]

Hey Tighty, hope you are well.

I wouldn't want ANYONE to follow my advice !!!!!!!!!!   You are dealing with the guy who backed Detroit outright ( Packers got slowest / worst receivers imo in the league and I will be fielding against the Pack for the rest of the season ) , Under the Packers points and under the total points in the game ( big ) and they all went down on the last play after the facemask call that wasn't. Also bet Cleveland on Monday  only to have a blocked FG returned for a touchdown!!!  I am the unluckiest gambler on the planet so definitely wont be recommending.    I was just offering a  view on Philly with the points . As I don't like it , that's everything you need to know to plunge on !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ( exclamation points cos I know Tikay loves them !!!!!!!)

The Packers don't have the worst receivers in the league, almost certainly not the slowest either, although this is less clear and harder to assess. I wouldn't get carried away on the next gen stats thing on a small sample.

[Stopsleyhatter]

Cant get on but a Jeremy hill hat trick at 50/1 with sky could be interesting.Tyler Eifert is probably out as the red zone threat and the bengals are desperate to ramp up an average run game in the lead up to the post season.Reckon it's about a 25/1 33/1 shot myself.

[Tal]

The worst team in the league (adjusted by expected result against opponent) versus teams' first choice wide receiver plays one of the most targeted wide receivers in the NFL over the last four games (38, of which 24 were held for catches)

You'd be surprised to see a line for total receiving yards of 60.5, wouldn't you?

Kamar Aiken is not a household name but he has been doing a solid job for a depleted Baltimore Ravens offense. Today, he gets the Miami Lolphins. It's a poor game and poor players all round but I'd far rather bet him at 60.5 than lay him.

17/20 sadly for those without PP but we should still get involved.

Recommend £40 on Kamar Aiken over 60.5 receiving yards with BMU

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Over 60.5
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins Total Receiving Yds - Kamar Aiken
17/20
Total Stake: £40.00
Potential Returns: £74.00

[TightEnd]

a few lines that have been discussed in the last 36 hours

seattle at minnesota http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/seattle-seahawks-at-minnesota-vikings/point-spread

settled down at minnesota +2

eagles at patriots has come all the way in from  +10 to +7.5

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-new-england-patriots/point-spread

Rams into +4.5. johnson 7/1 first TD at b365 only

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/arizona-cardinals-at-st-louis-rams/point-spread

 

[Tal]

How big a miss is Revis for the Jets, Tighty? Giants are +2.5 at home in a derby encounter, with one of the best receivers in the game on a 95.5 receiving yards line. Somehow, they're in heavy contention for the playoffs, too.

The more I look at it, the more surprised I am. The Jets haven't been the same side these last few weeks, even with an on fire Brandon Marshall.

[TightEnd]

How big a miss is Revis for the Jets, Tighty? Giants are +2.5 at home in a derby encounter, with one of the best receivers in the game on a 95.5 receiving yards line. Somehow, they're in heavy contention for the playoffs, too.

The more I look at it, the more surprised I am. The Jets haven't been the same side these last few weeks, even with an on fire Brandon Marshall.

Both teams are at home...

presumably the jets can stick cromartie on beckham?

two difficult sides to get right, i find. eli is streaky both good and bad. so is fitzmagic.

jets probably the better defensive front seven and i suppose the quote is telling you that theyll force mistakes from manning