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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16573564 times)
nirvana
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« Reply #110595 on: December 22, 2015, 07:39:49 PM »

To funny if they appoint giggs
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rfgqqabc
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« Reply #110596 on: December 22, 2015, 07:45:51 PM »

Another Christmas gift from Bwin.

R.Huybrechts u91.5 average. He hasn't covered that line in his last 9 matches on TV.

Isn't he P2 so 89.5? What an awful format they have.

A bet at < 89.5 ?

I thought that was the line they were offering as the website doesn't name the players, just give P1/P2 and I didn't want to misclick bet the unders for the other guy. To me it looked like P1 was Winstanley and P2 was Huy. P2 line was o/u 89.5 when I last looked. They could have just moved the line.
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Bazzaboy
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« Reply #110597 on: December 22, 2015, 08:00:07 PM »

Another Christmas gift from Bwin.

R.Huybrechts u91.5 average. He hasn't covered that line in his last 9 matches on TV.

Isn't he P2 so 89.5? What an awful format they have.

A bet at < 89.5 ?

He was 91.5 but they chopped him after I posted.

Just about a bet at u89.5 imo.
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vegaslover
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« Reply #110598 on: December 22, 2015, 08:14:36 PM »

Leicester probs the value at the price. Liverpool have been getting worse each week and looked fking awful against Watford. I say that as a Liverpool fan
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Tal
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« Reply #110599 on: December 22, 2015, 09:31:10 PM »

Some NFL number crunchers run thousands of simulations to work out teams' chances of making the playoffs:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

As you can see, Washington Redskins have a 62% chance of getting there and will only do so by winning the division.

BetWhey have them at 20/23 to win the NFC East.

https://www.oddschecker.com/m/american-football/nfl#/american-football-nfl-nfc-east-winner

Am I missing anything?
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TightEnd
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« Reply #110600 on: December 22, 2015, 09:44:52 PM »

this may help

washington 7-7
eagles 6-8
giants 6-8

washington win the division if they win in philly this weekend (they are +3 or 11/8 straight up)

the giants are at minnesota

--

week 17

eagles play the giants

redskins are at the cowboys

If WAS and PHI finish 8-8, then PHI will win the division on division record.

If WAS and NYG end up at 8-8, it goes to WAS on conference record.

so if we assume for now that wash lose this week and both wash and philly are 7-8 going into the last week

then unless the giants win in minnesota, possible but they are +5 , then you have need two outcomes for them to win the division (because philly has the tiebreaker)

a) they beat the cowboys b) the giants beat philly (required because philly has the tiebreaker over wash)

if wash loses and nyg wins this weekend then they both go 7-8 and you simply need the redskins to win in dallas because they have the tie-breaker over the giants

simple. err.....
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Tal
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« Reply #110601 on: December 22, 2015, 09:53:28 PM »

I'm just being simplistic, probably, but Football Outsiders run 25,000 simulations each week and one bookie (who I would bet is running fewer simulations) is offering a 9% better price.
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Bazzaboy
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« Reply #110602 on: December 22, 2015, 10:01:04 PM »

How can Newton be 2-0 up here averaging 73?
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Ironside
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« Reply #110603 on: December 22, 2015, 10:21:10 PM »

ok lets say this weekend eagles beat redskin NYG lose to the vikings

then next weekend redskins lose to dallas and eagles lose to giants so we have a 3 way 7-9 tie which team gets in with a losing record?
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« Reply #110604 on: December 22, 2015, 10:27:33 PM »

ok lets say this weekend eagles beat redskin NYG lose to the vikings

then next weekend redskins lose to dallas and eagles lose to giants so we have a 3 way 7-9 tie which team gets in with a losing record?

only way NYG can get in is to win both games

Philly have the (second) tiebreaker over washington, better divisional record
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« Reply #110605 on: December 22, 2015, 11:06:03 PM »

so philly COULD get into the play offs by just beating washington

how often have teams with losing records made the play offs and has a team ever got past the wild card round?
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« Reply #110606 on: December 23, 2015, 12:15:28 AM »

Anderson looking likely to miss the first test could make broad a good bet for leading wicket taker if the odds haven't adjusted?
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Longines
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« Reply #110607 on: December 23, 2015, 12:36:40 AM »

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24929639/panthers-are-fourth-team-ever-to-make-nfl-playoffs-with-losing-record

2010 Seahawks finished 7-9 and beat the Saints in the wildcard game.
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« Reply #110608 on: December 23, 2015, 11:25:31 AM »

We are already on at 5/1 Newcastle but the 2/1 still available really is a massive price.  I have topped up.  I make them an odds on shot given their prices for the 10 individual races.  8 of their 10 runners are shorter than 3/1.  2nd fav Towcester have got 5 of their 10 runners at 5/1 or bigger.  Newcastle also have the only two odds on shots on the card and other favs are 2/1 9/4 and 5/2 running for them.  There should be a much much bigger gap between Newcastle and Towcester in the outright betting.

http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/ante-post/bags-track-championship/winner

If anyone is going i will be around with a big SA spurs nba booble hat on and a black coat if you fancy a pint between races.  Live on sky sports if you can't make it.  2pm start.  Let's get this xmas money!
« Last Edit: December 23, 2015, 11:42:22 AM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #110609 on: December 23, 2015, 11:27:57 AM »

Good luck with your bet Arb, and anyone else who got on.
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